The performance of model-based indices given alternative sampling strategies in a climate-adaptive survey design

• Published in: Frontiers in Marine Science
• Main Authors: Meaghan D. Bryan, James T. Thorson
• Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
• Language: English
• Published: Frontiers Media S.A. 2023
• Subjects: spatio-temporal models; fishery-independent sampling; abundance indices; climate change; Bering Sea; Science; Q; General. Including nature conservation; geographical distribution; QH1-199.5
• Online Access: https://doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2023.1198260; https://doaj.org/article/79c95898de474793bd4b1da24add94b5

Species-distribution shifts are becoming commonplace due to climate-driven change. Difficult decisions to modify survey extent and frequency are often made due to this change and constraining survey budgets. This often leads to spatially and temporally unbalanced survey coverage. Spatio-temporal models are increasingly used to account for spatially unbalanced sampling data when estimating abundance indices used for stock assessment, but their performance in these contexts has received little research attention. We therefore seek to answer two questions: (1) how well can a spatio-temporal model estimate the proportion of abundance in a new “climate-adaptive” spatial stratum? and (2) when sampling must be reduced, does annual sampling at reduced density or biennial sampling result in better model-based abundance indices? We develop a spatially varying coefficient model in the R package VAST using the eastern Bering Sea (EBS) bottom trawl survey and its northern Bering Sea (NBS) extension to address these questions. We first reduce the spatial extent of survey data for 30 out of 38 years of a real survey in the EBS and fit a spatio-temporal model to four commercially important species using these “data-reduction” scenarios. This shows that a spatio-temporal model generally produces similar trends and density estimates over time when large portions of the sampling domain are not sampled. However, when the central distribution of a population is not sampled the estimates are inaccurate and have higher uncertainty. We also conducted a simulation experiment conditioned upon estimates for walleye pollock (Gadus chalcogrammus) in the EBS and NBS. Many species in this region are experiencing distributional shifts attributable to climate change with species historically centered in the southeastern portion of the survey being increasingly encountered in the NBS. The NBS was occasionally surveyed in the past, but has been surveyed more regularly in recent years to document distributional shifts. Expanding the survey to the ...