Predictability of Weather and Climate
Abstract The past developments in the predictability of weather and climate are discussed from the point of view of nonlinear dynamical systems. The problems ahead for long‐range predictability extending into the climate time scale are also presented. The sensitive dependence of chaos on initial con...
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American Geophysical Union (AGU)
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:7892865ac7494535ae666adb9c23d3c2 2023-05-15T18:18:15+02:00 Predictability of Weather and Climate V. Krishnamurthy 2019-07-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.1029/2019EA000586 https://doaj.org/article/7892865ac7494535ae666adb9c23d3c2 EN eng American Geophysical Union (AGU) https://doi.org/10.1029/2019EA000586 https://doaj.org/toc/2333-5084 2333-5084 doi:10.1029/2019EA000586 https://doaj.org/article/7892865ac7494535ae666adb9c23d3c2 Earth and Space Science, Vol 6, Iss 7, Pp 1043-1056 (2019) Astronomy QB1-991 Geology QE1-996.5 article 2019 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.1029/2019EA000586 2022-12-31T00:19:08Z Abstract The past developments in the predictability of weather and climate are discussed from the point of view of nonlinear dynamical systems. The problems ahead for long‐range predictability extending into the climate time scale are also presented. The sensitive dependence of chaos on initial conditions and the imperfections in the models limit reliable predictability of the instantaneous state of the weather to less than 10 days in present‐day operational forecasts. The existence of slowly varying components such as the sea surface temperature, soil moisture, snow cover, and sea ice may provide basis for predicting certain aspects of climate at long range. The regularly varying nonlinear oscillations, such as the Madden‐Julian Oscillation, monsoon intraseasonal oscillations, and El Niño‐Southern Oscillation, are also possible sources of extended‐range predictability at the climate time scale. A prediction model based on phase space reconstruction has demonstrated that monsoon intraseasonal oscillation can be better predicted at long leads. Article in Journal/Newspaper Sea ice Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Earth and Space Science 6 7 1043 1056 |
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Open Polar |
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Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
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ftdoajarticles |
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English |
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Astronomy QB1-991 Geology QE1-996.5 |
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Astronomy QB1-991 Geology QE1-996.5 V. Krishnamurthy Predictability of Weather and Climate |
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Astronomy QB1-991 Geology QE1-996.5 |
description |
Abstract The past developments in the predictability of weather and climate are discussed from the point of view of nonlinear dynamical systems. The problems ahead for long‐range predictability extending into the climate time scale are also presented. The sensitive dependence of chaos on initial conditions and the imperfections in the models limit reliable predictability of the instantaneous state of the weather to less than 10 days in present‐day operational forecasts. The existence of slowly varying components such as the sea surface temperature, soil moisture, snow cover, and sea ice may provide basis for predicting certain aspects of climate at long range. The regularly varying nonlinear oscillations, such as the Madden‐Julian Oscillation, monsoon intraseasonal oscillations, and El Niño‐Southern Oscillation, are also possible sources of extended‐range predictability at the climate time scale. A prediction model based on phase space reconstruction has demonstrated that monsoon intraseasonal oscillation can be better predicted at long leads. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
V. Krishnamurthy |
author_facet |
V. Krishnamurthy |
author_sort |
V. Krishnamurthy |
title |
Predictability of Weather and Climate |
title_short |
Predictability of Weather and Climate |
title_full |
Predictability of Weather and Climate |
title_fullStr |
Predictability of Weather and Climate |
title_full_unstemmed |
Predictability of Weather and Climate |
title_sort |
predictability of weather and climate |
publisher |
American Geophysical Union (AGU) |
publishDate |
2019 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.1029/2019EA000586 https://doaj.org/article/7892865ac7494535ae666adb9c23d3c2 |
genre |
Sea ice |
genre_facet |
Sea ice |
op_source |
Earth and Space Science, Vol 6, Iss 7, Pp 1043-1056 (2019) |
op_relation |
https://doi.org/10.1029/2019EA000586 https://doaj.org/toc/2333-5084 2333-5084 doi:10.1029/2019EA000586 https://doaj.org/article/7892865ac7494535ae666adb9c23d3c2 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1029/2019EA000586 |
container_title |
Earth and Space Science |
container_volume |
6 |
container_issue |
7 |
container_start_page |
1043 |
op_container_end_page |
1056 |
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1766194778571014144 |