Predictability of Indian Ocean precipitation and its North Atlantic teleconnections during early winter
Abstract The Tropical Western-Central Indian Ocean (WCIO) precipitation anomalies play an important role in modulating the anomalous climate conditions in the North Atlantic and European (NAE) region during the early boreal winter (November–December; ND) season. In this study, we analyzed the forcin...
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:7783d862efec4e21a4dae05b4eb46db3 2023-05-15T17:26:44+02:00 Predictability of Indian Ocean precipitation and its North Atlantic teleconnections during early winter Muhammad Adnan Abid Fred Kucharski Franco Molteni Mansour Almazroui 2023-03-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-023-00328-z https://doaj.org/article/7783d862efec4e21a4dae05b4eb46db3 EN eng Nature Portfolio https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-023-00328-z https://doaj.org/toc/2397-3722 doi:10.1038/s41612-023-00328-z 2397-3722 https://doaj.org/article/7783d862efec4e21a4dae05b4eb46db3 npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, Vol 6, Iss 1, Pp 1-10 (2023) Environmental sciences GE1-350 Meteorology. Climatology QC851-999 article 2023 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-023-00328-z 2023-03-26T01:33:34Z Abstract The Tropical Western-Central Indian Ocean (WCIO) precipitation anomalies play an important role in modulating the anomalous climate conditions in the North Atlantic and European (NAE) region during the early boreal winter (November–December; ND) season. In this study, we analyzed the forcing mechanism and predictability for the early winter tropical WCIO precipitation anomalies and its teleconnections to the North Atlantic region. The two main forcing mechanisms emerging are the autumn Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and a direct atmospheric teleconnection from El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Since the autumn IOD is partially forced by ENSO, their independent contributions are also investigated. We found the IOD dominates over the ENSO contribution. The ECMWF-SEAS5 seasonal re-forecast reproduces these forcing mechanisms well and shows a substantial prediction skill for early winter WCIO precipitation. Moreover, the North Atlantic response to the positive WCIO phase projects spatially onto the positive North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) phase through atmospheric teleconnections and leads to warming in central and western Europe. This teleconnection is reproduced by ECMWF-SEAS5, but with weaker amplitude. Moreover, a significant prediction skill for the NAO as well as for the central and western European temperature anomalies is noted, which is mostly induced by the Indian Ocean precipitation anomalies during early winter. Article in Journal/Newspaper North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Indian npj Climate and Atmospheric Science 6 1 |
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Open Polar |
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Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
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ftdoajarticles |
language |
English |
topic |
Environmental sciences GE1-350 Meteorology. Climatology QC851-999 |
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Environmental sciences GE1-350 Meteorology. Climatology QC851-999 Muhammad Adnan Abid Fred Kucharski Franco Molteni Mansour Almazroui Predictability of Indian Ocean precipitation and its North Atlantic teleconnections during early winter |
topic_facet |
Environmental sciences GE1-350 Meteorology. Climatology QC851-999 |
description |
Abstract The Tropical Western-Central Indian Ocean (WCIO) precipitation anomalies play an important role in modulating the anomalous climate conditions in the North Atlantic and European (NAE) region during the early boreal winter (November–December; ND) season. In this study, we analyzed the forcing mechanism and predictability for the early winter tropical WCIO precipitation anomalies and its teleconnections to the North Atlantic region. The two main forcing mechanisms emerging are the autumn Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and a direct atmospheric teleconnection from El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Since the autumn IOD is partially forced by ENSO, their independent contributions are also investigated. We found the IOD dominates over the ENSO contribution. The ECMWF-SEAS5 seasonal re-forecast reproduces these forcing mechanisms well and shows a substantial prediction skill for early winter WCIO precipitation. Moreover, the North Atlantic response to the positive WCIO phase projects spatially onto the positive North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) phase through atmospheric teleconnections and leads to warming in central and western Europe. This teleconnection is reproduced by ECMWF-SEAS5, but with weaker amplitude. Moreover, a significant prediction skill for the NAO as well as for the central and western European temperature anomalies is noted, which is mostly induced by the Indian Ocean precipitation anomalies during early winter. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Muhammad Adnan Abid Fred Kucharski Franco Molteni Mansour Almazroui |
author_facet |
Muhammad Adnan Abid Fred Kucharski Franco Molteni Mansour Almazroui |
author_sort |
Muhammad Adnan Abid |
title |
Predictability of Indian Ocean precipitation and its North Atlantic teleconnections during early winter |
title_short |
Predictability of Indian Ocean precipitation and its North Atlantic teleconnections during early winter |
title_full |
Predictability of Indian Ocean precipitation and its North Atlantic teleconnections during early winter |
title_fullStr |
Predictability of Indian Ocean precipitation and its North Atlantic teleconnections during early winter |
title_full_unstemmed |
Predictability of Indian Ocean precipitation and its North Atlantic teleconnections during early winter |
title_sort |
predictability of indian ocean precipitation and its north atlantic teleconnections during early winter |
publisher |
Nature Portfolio |
publishDate |
2023 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-023-00328-z https://doaj.org/article/7783d862efec4e21a4dae05b4eb46db3 |
geographic |
Indian |
geographic_facet |
Indian |
genre |
North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
op_source |
npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, Vol 6, Iss 1, Pp 1-10 (2023) |
op_relation |
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-023-00328-z https://doaj.org/toc/2397-3722 doi:10.1038/s41612-023-00328-z 2397-3722 https://doaj.org/article/7783d862efec4e21a4dae05b4eb46db3 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-023-00328-z |
container_title |
npj Climate and Atmospheric Science |
container_volume |
6 |
container_issue |
1 |
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1766118513503633408 |