Empirical glacier mass-balance models for South America

• Published in: Journal of Glaciology
• Main Authors: Sebastian G. Mutz, Johannes Aschauer
• Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
• Language: English
• Published: Cambridge University Press 2022
• Subjects: Climate change; glacier mass-balance; glacier modelling; mountain glaciers; Environmental sciences; GE1-350; Meteorology. Climatology; QC851-999; Antarctic; The Antarctic; Antarc*; Journal of Glaciology
• Online Access: https://doi.org/10.1017/jog.2022.6; https://doaj.org/article/776d4082838f4b51b1d2e6d5a3977d41

We investigate relationships between synoptic-scale atmospheric variability and the mass-balance of 13 Andean glaciers (located 16–55° S) using Pearson correlation coefficients (PCCs) and multiple regressions. We then train empirical glacier mass-balance models (EGMs) in a cross-validated multiple regression procedure for each glacier. We find four distinct glaciological zones with regard to their climatic controls: (1) The mass-balance of the Outer Tropics glaciers is linked to temperature and the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (PCC ⩽ 0.6), (2) glaciers of the Desert Andes are mainly controlled by zonal wind intensity (PCC ⩽ 0.9) and the Antarctic Oscillation (PCC ⩽0.6), (3) the mass-balance of the Central Andes glaciers is primarily correlated with precipitation anomalies (PCC ⩽ 0.8), and (4) the glacier of the Fuegian Andes is controlled by winter precipitation (PCC ≈ 0.7) and summer temperature (PCC ≈ −0.9). Mass-balance data in the Lakes District and Patagonian Andes zones, where most glaciers are located, are too sparse for a robust detection of synoptic-scale climatic controls. The EGMs yield R2 values of ~ 0.45 on average and ⩽ 0.74 for the glaciers of the Desert Andes. The EGMs presented here do not consider glacier dynamics or geometry and are therefore only suitable for short-term predictions.