Quantifying the impact of early 21st century volcanic eruptions on global-mean surface temperature
Despite a continuous increase in well-mixed greenhouse gases, the global-mean surface temperature has shown a quasi-stabilization since 1998. This muted warming has been linked to the combined effects of internal climate variability and external forcing. The latter includes the impact of recent incr...
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:762633bbbc9648389b8208b1b7838132 2023-09-05T13:17:38+02:00 Quantifying the impact of early 21st century volcanic eruptions on global-mean surface temperature Paul-Arthur Monerie Marie-Pierre Moine Laurent Terray Sophie Valcke 2017-01-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aa6cb5 https://doaj.org/article/762633bbbc9648389b8208b1b7838132 EN eng IOP Publishing https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aa6cb5 https://doaj.org/toc/1748-9326 doi:10.1088/1748-9326/aa6cb5 1748-9326 https://doaj.org/article/762633bbbc9648389b8208b1b7838132 Environmental Research Letters, Vol 12, Iss 5, p 054010 (2017) climate variability hiatus volcanic activity climate modelling Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering TD1-1066 Environmental sciences GE1-350 Science Q Physics QC1-999 article 2017 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aa6cb5 2023-08-13T00:37:37Z Despite a continuous increase in well-mixed greenhouse gases, the global-mean surface temperature has shown a quasi-stabilization since 1998. This muted warming has been linked to the combined effects of internal climate variability and external forcing. The latter includes the impact of recent increase in the volcanic activity and of solar irradiance changes. Here we used a high-resolution coupled ocean–atmosphere climate model to assess the impact of the recent volcanic eruptions on the Earth's temperature, compared with the low volcanic activity of the early 2000s. Two sets of simulations are performed, one with realistic aerosol optical depth values, and the other with a fixed value of aerosol optical depth corresponding to a period of weak volcanic activity (1998–2002). We conclude that the observed recent increase in the volcanic activity led to a reduced warming trend (from 2003 to 2012) of 0.08 °C in ten years. The induced cooling is stronger during the last five-year period (2008–2012), with an annual global mean cooling of 0.04 °C (+/− 0.04 °C). The cooling is similar in summer (0.05 °C +/− 0.04 °C cooling) than in winter (0.03 °C +/− 0.04 °C cooling), but stronger in the Northern Hemisphere than in the Southern Hemisphere. Although equatorial and Arctic precipitation decreases in summer, the change in precipitation does not indicate robust changes at a local scale. Global heat content variations are found not to be impacted by the recent increase in volcanic activity. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Arctic Environmental Research Letters 12 5 054010 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
op_collection_id |
ftdoajarticles |
language |
English |
topic |
climate variability hiatus volcanic activity climate modelling Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering TD1-1066 Environmental sciences GE1-350 Science Q Physics QC1-999 |
spellingShingle |
climate variability hiatus volcanic activity climate modelling Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering TD1-1066 Environmental sciences GE1-350 Science Q Physics QC1-999 Paul-Arthur Monerie Marie-Pierre Moine Laurent Terray Sophie Valcke Quantifying the impact of early 21st century volcanic eruptions on global-mean surface temperature |
topic_facet |
climate variability hiatus volcanic activity climate modelling Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering TD1-1066 Environmental sciences GE1-350 Science Q Physics QC1-999 |
description |
Despite a continuous increase in well-mixed greenhouse gases, the global-mean surface temperature has shown a quasi-stabilization since 1998. This muted warming has been linked to the combined effects of internal climate variability and external forcing. The latter includes the impact of recent increase in the volcanic activity and of solar irradiance changes. Here we used a high-resolution coupled ocean–atmosphere climate model to assess the impact of the recent volcanic eruptions on the Earth's temperature, compared with the low volcanic activity of the early 2000s. Two sets of simulations are performed, one with realistic aerosol optical depth values, and the other with a fixed value of aerosol optical depth corresponding to a period of weak volcanic activity (1998–2002). We conclude that the observed recent increase in the volcanic activity led to a reduced warming trend (from 2003 to 2012) of 0.08 °C in ten years. The induced cooling is stronger during the last five-year period (2008–2012), with an annual global mean cooling of 0.04 °C (+/− 0.04 °C). The cooling is similar in summer (0.05 °C +/− 0.04 °C cooling) than in winter (0.03 °C +/− 0.04 °C cooling), but stronger in the Northern Hemisphere than in the Southern Hemisphere. Although equatorial and Arctic precipitation decreases in summer, the change in precipitation does not indicate robust changes at a local scale. Global heat content variations are found not to be impacted by the recent increase in volcanic activity. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Paul-Arthur Monerie Marie-Pierre Moine Laurent Terray Sophie Valcke |
author_facet |
Paul-Arthur Monerie Marie-Pierre Moine Laurent Terray Sophie Valcke |
author_sort |
Paul-Arthur Monerie |
title |
Quantifying the impact of early 21st century volcanic eruptions on global-mean surface temperature |
title_short |
Quantifying the impact of early 21st century volcanic eruptions on global-mean surface temperature |
title_full |
Quantifying the impact of early 21st century volcanic eruptions on global-mean surface temperature |
title_fullStr |
Quantifying the impact of early 21st century volcanic eruptions on global-mean surface temperature |
title_full_unstemmed |
Quantifying the impact of early 21st century volcanic eruptions on global-mean surface temperature |
title_sort |
quantifying the impact of early 21st century volcanic eruptions on global-mean surface temperature |
publisher |
IOP Publishing |
publishDate |
2017 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aa6cb5 https://doaj.org/article/762633bbbc9648389b8208b1b7838132 |
geographic |
Arctic |
geographic_facet |
Arctic |
genre |
Arctic |
genre_facet |
Arctic |
op_source |
Environmental Research Letters, Vol 12, Iss 5, p 054010 (2017) |
op_relation |
https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aa6cb5 https://doaj.org/toc/1748-9326 doi:10.1088/1748-9326/aa6cb5 1748-9326 https://doaj.org/article/762633bbbc9648389b8208b1b7838132 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aa6cb5 |
container_title |
Environmental Research Letters |
container_volume |
12 |
container_issue |
5 |
container_start_page |
054010 |
_version_ |
1776198731772723200 |