Changes in the North Atlantic Oscillation over the 20th century
The North Atlantic Oscillation explains a large fraction of the climate variability across the North Atlantic from the eastern seaboard of North America across the whole of Europe. Many studies have linked the North Atlantic Oscillation to climate extremes in this region, especially in winter, which...
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:75ef52cafca246df8a640f60b22b4af9 2024-09-09T19:54:22+00:00 Changes in the North Atlantic Oscillation over the 20th century S. Outten R. Davy 2024-05-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-753-2024 https://doaj.org/article/75ef52cafca246df8a640f60b22b4af9 EN eng Copernicus Publications https://wcd.copernicus.org/articles/5/753/2024/wcd-5-753-2024.pdf https://doaj.org/toc/2698-4016 doi:10.5194/wcd-5-753-2024 2698-4016 https://doaj.org/article/75ef52cafca246df8a640f60b22b4af9 Weather and Climate Dynamics, Vol 5, Pp 753-762 (2024) Meteorology. Climatology QC851-999 article 2024 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-753-2024 2024-08-05T17:49:24Z The North Atlantic Oscillation explains a large fraction of the climate variability across the North Atlantic from the eastern seaboard of North America across the whole of Europe. Many studies have linked the North Atlantic Oscillation to climate extremes in this region, especially in winter, which has motivated considerable study of this pattern of variability. However, one overlooked feature of how the North Atlantic Oscillation has changed over time is the explained variance of the pattern. Here we show that there has been a considerable increase in the percentage of variability explained by the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) over the 20th century from 32 % in 1930 to 53 % by the end of the 20th century. Whether this change is due to natural variability, a forced response to climate change, or some combination remains unclear. However, we found no evidence for a forced response from an ensemble of 50 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) models. These models did all show substantial internal variability in the strength of the North Atlantic Oscillation, but it was biased towards being too high compared to the reanalysis and with too little variation over time. Since there is a direct connection between the North Atlantic Oscillation and climate extremes over the region, this has direct consequences for both the long-term projection and near-term prediction of changes to climate extremes in the region. Article in Journal/Newspaper North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Weather and Climate Dynamics 5 2 753 762 |
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Open Polar |
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Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
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English |
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Meteorology. Climatology QC851-999 |
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Meteorology. Climatology QC851-999 S. Outten R. Davy Changes in the North Atlantic Oscillation over the 20th century |
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Meteorology. Climatology QC851-999 |
description |
The North Atlantic Oscillation explains a large fraction of the climate variability across the North Atlantic from the eastern seaboard of North America across the whole of Europe. Many studies have linked the North Atlantic Oscillation to climate extremes in this region, especially in winter, which has motivated considerable study of this pattern of variability. However, one overlooked feature of how the North Atlantic Oscillation has changed over time is the explained variance of the pattern. Here we show that there has been a considerable increase in the percentage of variability explained by the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) over the 20th century from 32 % in 1930 to 53 % by the end of the 20th century. Whether this change is due to natural variability, a forced response to climate change, or some combination remains unclear. However, we found no evidence for a forced response from an ensemble of 50 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) models. These models did all show substantial internal variability in the strength of the North Atlantic Oscillation, but it was biased towards being too high compared to the reanalysis and with too little variation over time. Since there is a direct connection between the North Atlantic Oscillation and climate extremes over the region, this has direct consequences for both the long-term projection and near-term prediction of changes to climate extremes in the region. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
S. Outten R. Davy |
author_facet |
S. Outten R. Davy |
author_sort |
S. Outten |
title |
Changes in the North Atlantic Oscillation over the 20th century |
title_short |
Changes in the North Atlantic Oscillation over the 20th century |
title_full |
Changes in the North Atlantic Oscillation over the 20th century |
title_fullStr |
Changes in the North Atlantic Oscillation over the 20th century |
title_full_unstemmed |
Changes in the North Atlantic Oscillation over the 20th century |
title_sort |
changes in the north atlantic oscillation over the 20th century |
publisher |
Copernicus Publications |
publishDate |
2024 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-753-2024 https://doaj.org/article/75ef52cafca246df8a640f60b22b4af9 |
genre |
North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
op_source |
Weather and Climate Dynamics, Vol 5, Pp 753-762 (2024) |
op_relation |
https://wcd.copernicus.org/articles/5/753/2024/wcd-5-753-2024.pdf https://doaj.org/toc/2698-4016 doi:10.5194/wcd-5-753-2024 2698-4016 https://doaj.org/article/75ef52cafca246df8a640f60b22b4af9 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-753-2024 |
container_title |
Weather and Climate Dynamics |
container_volume |
5 |
container_issue |
2 |
container_start_page |
753 |
op_container_end_page |
762 |
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1809923775568805888 |