Nonlinear (MARS) modeling of long-term variations of surface UV-B radiation as revealed from the analysis of Belsk, Poland data for the period 1976–2000
A new, powerful statistical technique, multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS), is applied to reproduce monthly fractional deviations of UV-B doses over Belsk, Poland, during the snowless (May–October) part of the year in the period 1976–2000. Two kinds of regressors were used: local ones (t...
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:75b9e99462764afabc1ec0fc0ea49825 2023-05-15T17:35:01+02:00 Nonlinear (MARS) modeling of long-term variations of surface UV-B radiation as revealed from the analysis of Belsk, Poland data for the period 1976–2000 J. W. Krzyścin 2003-08-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.5194/angeo-21-1887-2003 https://doaj.org/article/75b9e99462764afabc1ec0fc0ea49825 EN eng Copernicus Publications https://www.ann-geophys.net/21/1887/2003/angeo-21-1887-2003.pdf https://doaj.org/toc/0992-7689 https://doaj.org/toc/1432-0576 doi:10.5194/angeo-21-1887-2003 0992-7689 1432-0576 https://doaj.org/article/75b9e99462764afabc1ec0fc0ea49825 Annales Geophysicae, Vol 21, Pp 1887-1896 (2003) Science Q Physics QC1-999 Geophysics. Cosmic physics QC801-809 article 2003 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.5194/angeo-21-1887-2003 2022-12-31T06:33:01Z A new, powerful statistical technique, multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS), is applied to reproduce monthly fractional deviations of UV-B doses over Belsk, Poland, during the snowless (May–October) part of the year in the period 1976–2000. Two kinds of regressors were used: local ones (total ozone, percentage of sky covered by low-, mid-, high-level clouds or total solar radiation over Belsk) and non-local ones, i.e. those describing the long-distance forcings on the surface UV-B due to changes in the global atmospheric circulation. Standard indices of the Quasi-Biennial, North Atlantic, El Niño-Southern Oscillations, and the 11-year solar activity were used as non-local regressors. The results there indicate that the MARS procedure is able to reproduce the observed year-to-year and decadal oscillations in the UV data. The MARS model yields better model-observation agreement than an ordinary least-squares fit based on the same set of regressors. It is found that MARS is capable of handling interactions between the local and non-local regressors, suggesting a possible nonlinear nature of connections between variables characterizing the atmospheric transparency over Belsk and the long-distance forcings. MARS enables a reconstruction of the surface UV-B variations over any site based on the cloud and ozone data presently stored on web pages. Key words. Atmospheric composition and structure (aerosols and particles; biosphere-atmosphere interactions) Article in Journal/Newspaper North Atlantic Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Annales Geophysicae 21 8 1887 1896 |
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Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
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Science Q Physics QC1-999 Geophysics. Cosmic physics QC801-809 |
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Science Q Physics QC1-999 Geophysics. Cosmic physics QC801-809 J. W. Krzyścin Nonlinear (MARS) modeling of long-term variations of surface UV-B radiation as revealed from the analysis of Belsk, Poland data for the period 1976–2000 |
topic_facet |
Science Q Physics QC1-999 Geophysics. Cosmic physics QC801-809 |
description |
A new, powerful statistical technique, multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS), is applied to reproduce monthly fractional deviations of UV-B doses over Belsk, Poland, during the snowless (May–October) part of the year in the period 1976–2000. Two kinds of regressors were used: local ones (total ozone, percentage of sky covered by low-, mid-, high-level clouds or total solar radiation over Belsk) and non-local ones, i.e. those describing the long-distance forcings on the surface UV-B due to changes in the global atmospheric circulation. Standard indices of the Quasi-Biennial, North Atlantic, El Niño-Southern Oscillations, and the 11-year solar activity were used as non-local regressors. The results there indicate that the MARS procedure is able to reproduce the observed year-to-year and decadal oscillations in the UV data. The MARS model yields better model-observation agreement than an ordinary least-squares fit based on the same set of regressors. It is found that MARS is capable of handling interactions between the local and non-local regressors, suggesting a possible nonlinear nature of connections between variables characterizing the atmospheric transparency over Belsk and the long-distance forcings. MARS enables a reconstruction of the surface UV-B variations over any site based on the cloud and ozone data presently stored on web pages. Key words. Atmospheric composition and structure (aerosols and particles; biosphere-atmosphere interactions) |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
J. W. Krzyścin |
author_facet |
J. W. Krzyścin |
author_sort |
J. W. Krzyścin |
title |
Nonlinear (MARS) modeling of long-term variations of surface UV-B radiation as revealed from the analysis of Belsk, Poland data for the period 1976–2000 |
title_short |
Nonlinear (MARS) modeling of long-term variations of surface UV-B radiation as revealed from the analysis of Belsk, Poland data for the period 1976–2000 |
title_full |
Nonlinear (MARS) modeling of long-term variations of surface UV-B radiation as revealed from the analysis of Belsk, Poland data for the period 1976–2000 |
title_fullStr |
Nonlinear (MARS) modeling of long-term variations of surface UV-B radiation as revealed from the analysis of Belsk, Poland data for the period 1976–2000 |
title_full_unstemmed |
Nonlinear (MARS) modeling of long-term variations of surface UV-B radiation as revealed from the analysis of Belsk, Poland data for the period 1976–2000 |
title_sort |
nonlinear (mars) modeling of long-term variations of surface uv-b radiation as revealed from the analysis of belsk, poland data for the period 1976–2000 |
publisher |
Copernicus Publications |
publishDate |
2003 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.5194/angeo-21-1887-2003 https://doaj.org/article/75b9e99462764afabc1ec0fc0ea49825 |
genre |
North Atlantic |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic |
op_source |
Annales Geophysicae, Vol 21, Pp 1887-1896 (2003) |
op_relation |
https://www.ann-geophys.net/21/1887/2003/angeo-21-1887-2003.pdf https://doaj.org/toc/0992-7689 https://doaj.org/toc/1432-0576 doi:10.5194/angeo-21-1887-2003 0992-7689 1432-0576 https://doaj.org/article/75b9e99462764afabc1ec0fc0ea49825 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/angeo-21-1887-2003 |
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Annales Geophysicae |
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21 |
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8 |
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1887 |
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1896 |
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