How unusual was late 20th century El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)? Assessing evidence from tree-ring, coral, ice-core and documentary palaeoarchives, A.D. 1525-2002
Multiple proxy records (tree-ring, coral, ice and documentary) were examined to isolate ENSO signals associated with both phases of the phenomenon for the period A.D.1525-2002. To avoid making large-scale inferences from single proxy analysis, regional signals were aggregated into a network of high-...
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:7482257c826e4743973d316292548878 2023-05-15T16:39:13+02:00 How unusual was late 20th century El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)? Assessing evidence from tree-ring, coral, ice-core and documentary palaeoarchives, A.D. 1525-2002 J. L. Gergis A. M. Fowler 2006-01-01T00:00:00Z https://doaj.org/article/7482257c826e4743973d316292548878 EN eng Copernicus Publications http://www.adv-geosci.net/6/173/2006/adgeo-6-173-2006.pdf https://doaj.org/toc/1680-7340 https://doaj.org/toc/1680-7359 1680-7340 1680-7359 https://doaj.org/article/7482257c826e4743973d316292548878 Advances in Geosciences, Vol 6, Pp 173-179 (2006) Science Q Geology QE1-996.5 Dynamic and structural geology QE500-639.5 article 2006 ftdoajarticles 2022-12-31T09:31:15Z Multiple proxy records (tree-ring, coral, ice and documentary) were examined to isolate ENSO signals associated with both phases of the phenomenon for the period A.D.1525-2002. To avoid making large-scale inferences from single proxy analysis, regional signals were aggregated into a network of high-resolution records, revealing large-scale trends in the frequency, magnitude and duration of pre-instrumental ENSO using novel applications of percentile analysis. Here we use the newly introduced coupled ocean-atmosphere ENSO index (CEI) as a baseline for the calibration of proxy records. The reconstruction revealed 83 extreme or very strong ENSO episodes since A.D.1525, expanding considerably on existing ENSO event chronologies. Significantly, excerpts of the most comprehensive list of La Niña events complied to date are presented, indicating peak activity during the 16th to mid 17th and 20th centuries. Although extreme events are seen throughout the 478-year reconstruction, 43% of the extreme ENSO events noted since A.D.1525 occur during the 20th century, with an obvious bias towards enhanced El Niño conditions in recent decades. Of the total number of extreme event years reconstructed, 30% of all reconstructed ENSO event years occur post-1940 alone suggesting that recent ENSO variability appears anomalous in the context of the past five centuries. Article in Journal/Newspaper ice core Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
op_collection_id |
ftdoajarticles |
language |
English |
topic |
Science Q Geology QE1-996.5 Dynamic and structural geology QE500-639.5 |
spellingShingle |
Science Q Geology QE1-996.5 Dynamic and structural geology QE500-639.5 J. L. Gergis A. M. Fowler How unusual was late 20th century El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)? Assessing evidence from tree-ring, coral, ice-core and documentary palaeoarchives, A.D. 1525-2002 |
topic_facet |
Science Q Geology QE1-996.5 Dynamic and structural geology QE500-639.5 |
description |
Multiple proxy records (tree-ring, coral, ice and documentary) were examined to isolate ENSO signals associated with both phases of the phenomenon for the period A.D.1525-2002. To avoid making large-scale inferences from single proxy analysis, regional signals were aggregated into a network of high-resolution records, revealing large-scale trends in the frequency, magnitude and duration of pre-instrumental ENSO using novel applications of percentile analysis. Here we use the newly introduced coupled ocean-atmosphere ENSO index (CEI) as a baseline for the calibration of proxy records. The reconstruction revealed 83 extreme or very strong ENSO episodes since A.D.1525, expanding considerably on existing ENSO event chronologies. Significantly, excerpts of the most comprehensive list of La Niña events complied to date are presented, indicating peak activity during the 16th to mid 17th and 20th centuries. Although extreme events are seen throughout the 478-year reconstruction, 43% of the extreme ENSO events noted since A.D.1525 occur during the 20th century, with an obvious bias towards enhanced El Niño conditions in recent decades. Of the total number of extreme event years reconstructed, 30% of all reconstructed ENSO event years occur post-1940 alone suggesting that recent ENSO variability appears anomalous in the context of the past five centuries. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
J. L. Gergis A. M. Fowler |
author_facet |
J. L. Gergis A. M. Fowler |
author_sort |
J. L. Gergis |
title |
How unusual was late 20th century El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)? Assessing evidence from tree-ring, coral, ice-core and documentary palaeoarchives, A.D. 1525-2002 |
title_short |
How unusual was late 20th century El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)? Assessing evidence from tree-ring, coral, ice-core and documentary palaeoarchives, A.D. 1525-2002 |
title_full |
How unusual was late 20th century El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)? Assessing evidence from tree-ring, coral, ice-core and documentary palaeoarchives, A.D. 1525-2002 |
title_fullStr |
How unusual was late 20th century El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)? Assessing evidence from tree-ring, coral, ice-core and documentary palaeoarchives, A.D. 1525-2002 |
title_full_unstemmed |
How unusual was late 20th century El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)? Assessing evidence from tree-ring, coral, ice-core and documentary palaeoarchives, A.D. 1525-2002 |
title_sort |
how unusual was late 20th century el niño-southern oscillation (enso)? assessing evidence from tree-ring, coral, ice-core and documentary palaeoarchives, a.d. 1525-2002 |
publisher |
Copernicus Publications |
publishDate |
2006 |
url |
https://doaj.org/article/7482257c826e4743973d316292548878 |
genre |
ice core |
genre_facet |
ice core |
op_source |
Advances in Geosciences, Vol 6, Pp 173-179 (2006) |
op_relation |
http://www.adv-geosci.net/6/173/2006/adgeo-6-173-2006.pdf https://doaj.org/toc/1680-7340 https://doaj.org/toc/1680-7359 1680-7340 1680-7359 https://doaj.org/article/7482257c826e4743973d316292548878 |
_version_ |
1766029555593641984 |