Past and future of the Arctic sea ice in High-Resolution Model Intercomparison Project (HighResMIP) climate models
We examine the past and projected changes in Arctic sea ice properties in six climate models participating in the High-Resolution Model Intercomparison Project (HighResMIP) in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). Within HighResMIP, each of the experiments is run using a referen...
Published in: | The Cryosphere |
---|---|
Main Authors: | , , |
Format: | Article in Journal/Newspaper |
Language: | English |
Published: |
Copernicus Publications
2024
|
Subjects: | |
Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-2739-2024 https://doaj.org/article/737d674fcbb942409450b06ad07fffd8 |
id |
ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:737d674fcbb942409450b06ad07fffd8 |
---|---|
record_format |
openpolar |
spelling |
ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:737d674fcbb942409450b06ad07fffd8 2024-09-15T17:46:23+00:00 Past and future of the Arctic sea ice in High-Resolution Model Intercomparison Project (HighResMIP) climate models J. Selivanova D. Iovino F. Cocetta 2024-06-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-2739-2024 https://doaj.org/article/737d674fcbb942409450b06ad07fffd8 EN eng Copernicus Publications https://tc.copernicus.org/articles/18/2739/2024/tc-18-2739-2024.pdf https://doaj.org/toc/1994-0416 https://doaj.org/toc/1994-0424 doi:10.5194/tc-18-2739-2024 1994-0416 1994-0424 https://doaj.org/article/737d674fcbb942409450b06ad07fffd8 The Cryosphere, Vol 18, Pp 2739-2763 (2024) Environmental sciences GE1-350 Geology QE1-996.5 article 2024 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-2739-2024 2024-08-05T17:49:10Z We examine the past and projected changes in Arctic sea ice properties in six climate models participating in the High-Resolution Model Intercomparison Project (HighResMIP) in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). Within HighResMIP, each of the experiments is run using a reference resolution configuration (consistent with typical CMIP6 runs) and using higher-resolution configurations. The role of horizontal grid resolution in both the atmosphere model component and the ocean model component in reproducing past and future changes in the Arctic sea ice cover is analysed. Model outputs from the coupled historical (hist-1950) and future (highres-future) runs are used to describe the multi-model, multi-resolution representation of the Arctic sea ice and to evaluate the systematic differences (if any) that resolution enhancement causes. Our results indicate that there is not a strong relationship between the representation of sea ice cover and the ocean/atmosphere grids; the impact of horizontal resolution depends rather on the sea ice characteristic examined and the model used. However, the refinement of the ocean grid has a more prominent effect compared to the refinement of the atmospheric one, with eddy-permitting ocean configurations generally providing more realistic representations of sea ice area and sea ice edges. All models project substantial sea ice shrinking: the Arctic loses nearly 95 % of sea ice volume from 1950 to 2050. The model selection based on historical performance potentially improves the accuracy of the model projections and predicts that the Arctic will turn ice-free as early as 2047. Along with the overall sea ice loss, changes in the spatial structure of the total sea ice and its partition in ice classes are noticed: the marginal ice zone (MIZ) will dominate the ice cover by 2050, suggesting a shift to a new sea ice regime much closer to the current Antarctic sea ice conditions. The MIZ-dominated Arctic might drive development and modification of model physics and ... Article in Journal/Newspaper Antarc* Antarctic Sea ice The Cryosphere Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles The Cryosphere 18 6 2739 2763 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
op_collection_id |
ftdoajarticles |
language |
English |
topic |
Environmental sciences GE1-350 Geology QE1-996.5 |
spellingShingle |
Environmental sciences GE1-350 Geology QE1-996.5 J. Selivanova D. Iovino F. Cocetta Past and future of the Arctic sea ice in High-Resolution Model Intercomparison Project (HighResMIP) climate models |
topic_facet |
Environmental sciences GE1-350 Geology QE1-996.5 |
description |
We examine the past and projected changes in Arctic sea ice properties in six climate models participating in the High-Resolution Model Intercomparison Project (HighResMIP) in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). Within HighResMIP, each of the experiments is run using a reference resolution configuration (consistent with typical CMIP6 runs) and using higher-resolution configurations. The role of horizontal grid resolution in both the atmosphere model component and the ocean model component in reproducing past and future changes in the Arctic sea ice cover is analysed. Model outputs from the coupled historical (hist-1950) and future (highres-future) runs are used to describe the multi-model, multi-resolution representation of the Arctic sea ice and to evaluate the systematic differences (if any) that resolution enhancement causes. Our results indicate that there is not a strong relationship between the representation of sea ice cover and the ocean/atmosphere grids; the impact of horizontal resolution depends rather on the sea ice characteristic examined and the model used. However, the refinement of the ocean grid has a more prominent effect compared to the refinement of the atmospheric one, with eddy-permitting ocean configurations generally providing more realistic representations of sea ice area and sea ice edges. All models project substantial sea ice shrinking: the Arctic loses nearly 95 % of sea ice volume from 1950 to 2050. The model selection based on historical performance potentially improves the accuracy of the model projections and predicts that the Arctic will turn ice-free as early as 2047. Along with the overall sea ice loss, changes in the spatial structure of the total sea ice and its partition in ice classes are noticed: the marginal ice zone (MIZ) will dominate the ice cover by 2050, suggesting a shift to a new sea ice regime much closer to the current Antarctic sea ice conditions. The MIZ-dominated Arctic might drive development and modification of model physics and ... |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
J. Selivanova D. Iovino F. Cocetta |
author_facet |
J. Selivanova D. Iovino F. Cocetta |
author_sort |
J. Selivanova |
title |
Past and future of the Arctic sea ice in High-Resolution Model Intercomparison Project (HighResMIP) climate models |
title_short |
Past and future of the Arctic sea ice in High-Resolution Model Intercomparison Project (HighResMIP) climate models |
title_full |
Past and future of the Arctic sea ice in High-Resolution Model Intercomparison Project (HighResMIP) climate models |
title_fullStr |
Past and future of the Arctic sea ice in High-Resolution Model Intercomparison Project (HighResMIP) climate models |
title_full_unstemmed |
Past and future of the Arctic sea ice in High-Resolution Model Intercomparison Project (HighResMIP) climate models |
title_sort |
past and future of the arctic sea ice in high-resolution model intercomparison project (highresmip) climate models |
publisher |
Copernicus Publications |
publishDate |
2024 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-2739-2024 https://doaj.org/article/737d674fcbb942409450b06ad07fffd8 |
genre |
Antarc* Antarctic Sea ice The Cryosphere |
genre_facet |
Antarc* Antarctic Sea ice The Cryosphere |
op_source |
The Cryosphere, Vol 18, Pp 2739-2763 (2024) |
op_relation |
https://tc.copernicus.org/articles/18/2739/2024/tc-18-2739-2024.pdf https://doaj.org/toc/1994-0416 https://doaj.org/toc/1994-0424 doi:10.5194/tc-18-2739-2024 1994-0416 1994-0424 https://doaj.org/article/737d674fcbb942409450b06ad07fffd8 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-2739-2024 |
container_title |
The Cryosphere |
container_volume |
18 |
container_issue |
6 |
container_start_page |
2739 |
op_container_end_page |
2763 |
_version_ |
1810494476024545280 |