Does increased atmospheric resolution improve seasonal climate predictions?
Abstract We assess the impact of atmospheric horizontal resolution on the prediction skill and fidelity of seasonal forecasts. We show the response to an increase of atmospheric resolution from 0.8 to 0.3° horizontal grid spacing in parallel ensembles of forecasts. Changes in the prediction skill of...
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Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1002/asl.922 https://doaj.org/article/72f9caefa4d148f2a90b61e83e4a4cf4 |
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:72f9caefa4d148f2a90b61e83e4a4cf4 2023-05-15T17:33:41+02:00 Does increased atmospheric resolution improve seasonal climate predictions? Adam A. Scaife Joanne Camp Ruth Comer Philip Davis Nick Dunstone Margaret Gordon Craig MacLachlan Nicola Martin Yu Nie Hong‐Li Ren Malcolm Roberts Walter Robinson Doug Smith Pier Luigi Vidale 2019-08-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.1002/asl.922 https://doaj.org/article/72f9caefa4d148f2a90b61e83e4a4cf4 EN eng Wiley https://doi.org/10.1002/asl.922 https://doaj.org/toc/1530-261X 1530-261X doi:10.1002/asl.922 https://doaj.org/article/72f9caefa4d148f2a90b61e83e4a4cf4 Atmospheric Science Letters, Vol 20, Iss 8, Pp n/a-n/a (2019) atmospheric resolution eddy feedback seasonal prediction signal to noise ratio Meteorology. Climatology QC851-999 article 2019 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.1002/asl.922 2022-12-31T09:36:28Z Abstract We assess the impact of atmospheric horizontal resolution on the prediction skill and fidelity of seasonal forecasts. We show the response to an increase of atmospheric resolution from 0.8 to 0.3° horizontal grid spacing in parallel ensembles of forecasts. Changes in the prediction skill of major modes of tropical El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and extratropical North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) variability are small and not detected and there is no discernible impact on the weak signal‐to‐noise ratio in seasonal predictions of the winter NAO at this range of resolutions. Although studies have shown improvements in the simulation of tropical cyclones as model resolution is increased, we find little impact on seasonal prediction skill of either their numbers or intensity. Over this range of resolutions it appears that the benefit of increasing atmospheric resolution to seasonal climate predictions is minimal. However, at yet finer scales there appears to be increased eddy feedback which could strengthen weak signals in predictions of the NAO. Until prediction systems can be run operationally at these scales, it may be better to use additional computing resources for other enhancements such as increased ensemble size, for which there is a clear benefit in extratropical seasonal prediction skill. Article in Journal/Newspaper North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Atmospheric Science Letters 20 8 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
op_collection_id |
ftdoajarticles |
language |
English |
topic |
atmospheric resolution eddy feedback seasonal prediction signal to noise ratio Meteorology. Climatology QC851-999 |
spellingShingle |
atmospheric resolution eddy feedback seasonal prediction signal to noise ratio Meteorology. Climatology QC851-999 Adam A. Scaife Joanne Camp Ruth Comer Philip Davis Nick Dunstone Margaret Gordon Craig MacLachlan Nicola Martin Yu Nie Hong‐Li Ren Malcolm Roberts Walter Robinson Doug Smith Pier Luigi Vidale Does increased atmospheric resolution improve seasonal climate predictions? |
topic_facet |
atmospheric resolution eddy feedback seasonal prediction signal to noise ratio Meteorology. Climatology QC851-999 |
description |
Abstract We assess the impact of atmospheric horizontal resolution on the prediction skill and fidelity of seasonal forecasts. We show the response to an increase of atmospheric resolution from 0.8 to 0.3° horizontal grid spacing in parallel ensembles of forecasts. Changes in the prediction skill of major modes of tropical El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and extratropical North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) variability are small and not detected and there is no discernible impact on the weak signal‐to‐noise ratio in seasonal predictions of the winter NAO at this range of resolutions. Although studies have shown improvements in the simulation of tropical cyclones as model resolution is increased, we find little impact on seasonal prediction skill of either their numbers or intensity. Over this range of resolutions it appears that the benefit of increasing atmospheric resolution to seasonal climate predictions is minimal. However, at yet finer scales there appears to be increased eddy feedback which could strengthen weak signals in predictions of the NAO. Until prediction systems can be run operationally at these scales, it may be better to use additional computing resources for other enhancements such as increased ensemble size, for which there is a clear benefit in extratropical seasonal prediction skill. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Adam A. Scaife Joanne Camp Ruth Comer Philip Davis Nick Dunstone Margaret Gordon Craig MacLachlan Nicola Martin Yu Nie Hong‐Li Ren Malcolm Roberts Walter Robinson Doug Smith Pier Luigi Vidale |
author_facet |
Adam A. Scaife Joanne Camp Ruth Comer Philip Davis Nick Dunstone Margaret Gordon Craig MacLachlan Nicola Martin Yu Nie Hong‐Li Ren Malcolm Roberts Walter Robinson Doug Smith Pier Luigi Vidale |
author_sort |
Adam A. Scaife |
title |
Does increased atmospheric resolution improve seasonal climate predictions? |
title_short |
Does increased atmospheric resolution improve seasonal climate predictions? |
title_full |
Does increased atmospheric resolution improve seasonal climate predictions? |
title_fullStr |
Does increased atmospheric resolution improve seasonal climate predictions? |
title_full_unstemmed |
Does increased atmospheric resolution improve seasonal climate predictions? |
title_sort |
does increased atmospheric resolution improve seasonal climate predictions? |
publisher |
Wiley |
publishDate |
2019 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.1002/asl.922 https://doaj.org/article/72f9caefa4d148f2a90b61e83e4a4cf4 |
genre |
North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
op_source |
Atmospheric Science Letters, Vol 20, Iss 8, Pp n/a-n/a (2019) |
op_relation |
https://doi.org/10.1002/asl.922 https://doaj.org/toc/1530-261X 1530-261X doi:10.1002/asl.922 https://doaj.org/article/72f9caefa4d148f2a90b61e83e4a4cf4 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1002/asl.922 |
container_title |
Atmospheric Science Letters |
container_volume |
20 |
container_issue |
8 |
_version_ |
1766132256237158400 |