Long-term persistence of monotypic dengue transmission in small size isolated populations, French Polynesia, 1978-2014.
Understanding the transition of epidemic to endemic dengue transmission remains a challenge in regions where serotypes co-circulate and there is extensive human mobility. French Polynesia, an isolated group of 117 islands of which 72 are inhabited, distributed among five geographically separated sub...
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:72f09f9a432c4ed49269e89f604aef54 2023-05-15T15:12:21+02:00 Long-term persistence of monotypic dengue transmission in small size isolated populations, French Polynesia, 1978-2014. Yoann Teissier Richard Paul Maite Aubry Xavier Rodo Carlos Dommar Henrik Salje Anavaj Sakuntabhai Bernard Cazelles Van-Mai Cao-Lormeau 2020-03-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0008110 https://doaj.org/article/72f09f9a432c4ed49269e89f604aef54 EN eng Public Library of Science (PLoS) https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0008110 https://doaj.org/toc/1935-2727 https://doaj.org/toc/1935-2735 1935-2727 1935-2735 doi:10.1371/journal.pntd.0008110 https://doaj.org/article/72f09f9a432c4ed49269e89f604aef54 PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases, Vol 14, Iss 3, p e0008110 (2020) Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine RC955-962 Public aspects of medicine RA1-1270 article 2020 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0008110 2022-12-31T05:51:10Z Understanding the transition of epidemic to endemic dengue transmission remains a challenge in regions where serotypes co-circulate and there is extensive human mobility. French Polynesia, an isolated group of 117 islands of which 72 are inhabited, distributed among five geographically separated subdivisions, has recorded mono-serotype epidemics since 1944, with long inter-epidemic periods of circulation. Laboratory confirmed cases have been recorded since 1978, enabling exploration of dengue epidemiology under monotypic conditions in an isolated, spatially structured geographical location. A database was constructed of confirmed dengue cases, geolocated to island for a 35-year period. Statistical analyses of viral establishment, persistence and fade-out as well as synchrony among subdivisions were performed. Seven monotypic and one heterotypic dengue epidemic occurred, followed by low-level viral circulation with a recrudescent epidemic occurring on one occasion. Incidence was asynchronous among the subdivisions. Complete viral die-out occurred on several occasions with invasion of a new serotype. Competitive serotype replacement has been observed previously and seems to be characteristic of the South Pacific. Island population size had a strong impact on the establishment, persistence and fade-out of dengue cases and endemicity was estimated achievable only at a population size in excess of 175 000. Despite island remoteness and low population size, dengue cases were observed somewhere in French Polynesia almost constantly, in part due to the spatial structuration generating asynchrony among subdivisions. Long-term persistence of dengue virus in this group of island populations may be enabled by island hopping, although could equally be explained by a reservoir of sub-clinical infections on the most populated island, Tahiti. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Arctic Pacific PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases 14 3 e0008110 |
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Open Polar |
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Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
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ftdoajarticles |
language |
English |
topic |
Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine RC955-962 Public aspects of medicine RA1-1270 |
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Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine RC955-962 Public aspects of medicine RA1-1270 Yoann Teissier Richard Paul Maite Aubry Xavier Rodo Carlos Dommar Henrik Salje Anavaj Sakuntabhai Bernard Cazelles Van-Mai Cao-Lormeau Long-term persistence of monotypic dengue transmission in small size isolated populations, French Polynesia, 1978-2014. |
topic_facet |
Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine RC955-962 Public aspects of medicine RA1-1270 |
description |
Understanding the transition of epidemic to endemic dengue transmission remains a challenge in regions where serotypes co-circulate and there is extensive human mobility. French Polynesia, an isolated group of 117 islands of which 72 are inhabited, distributed among five geographically separated subdivisions, has recorded mono-serotype epidemics since 1944, with long inter-epidemic periods of circulation. Laboratory confirmed cases have been recorded since 1978, enabling exploration of dengue epidemiology under monotypic conditions in an isolated, spatially structured geographical location. A database was constructed of confirmed dengue cases, geolocated to island for a 35-year period. Statistical analyses of viral establishment, persistence and fade-out as well as synchrony among subdivisions were performed. Seven monotypic and one heterotypic dengue epidemic occurred, followed by low-level viral circulation with a recrudescent epidemic occurring on one occasion. Incidence was asynchronous among the subdivisions. Complete viral die-out occurred on several occasions with invasion of a new serotype. Competitive serotype replacement has been observed previously and seems to be characteristic of the South Pacific. Island population size had a strong impact on the establishment, persistence and fade-out of dengue cases and endemicity was estimated achievable only at a population size in excess of 175 000. Despite island remoteness and low population size, dengue cases were observed somewhere in French Polynesia almost constantly, in part due to the spatial structuration generating asynchrony among subdivisions. Long-term persistence of dengue virus in this group of island populations may be enabled by island hopping, although could equally be explained by a reservoir of sub-clinical infections on the most populated island, Tahiti. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Yoann Teissier Richard Paul Maite Aubry Xavier Rodo Carlos Dommar Henrik Salje Anavaj Sakuntabhai Bernard Cazelles Van-Mai Cao-Lormeau |
author_facet |
Yoann Teissier Richard Paul Maite Aubry Xavier Rodo Carlos Dommar Henrik Salje Anavaj Sakuntabhai Bernard Cazelles Van-Mai Cao-Lormeau |
author_sort |
Yoann Teissier |
title |
Long-term persistence of monotypic dengue transmission in small size isolated populations, French Polynesia, 1978-2014. |
title_short |
Long-term persistence of monotypic dengue transmission in small size isolated populations, French Polynesia, 1978-2014. |
title_full |
Long-term persistence of monotypic dengue transmission in small size isolated populations, French Polynesia, 1978-2014. |
title_fullStr |
Long-term persistence of monotypic dengue transmission in small size isolated populations, French Polynesia, 1978-2014. |
title_full_unstemmed |
Long-term persistence of monotypic dengue transmission in small size isolated populations, French Polynesia, 1978-2014. |
title_sort |
long-term persistence of monotypic dengue transmission in small size isolated populations, french polynesia, 1978-2014. |
publisher |
Public Library of Science (PLoS) |
publishDate |
2020 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0008110 https://doaj.org/article/72f09f9a432c4ed49269e89f604aef54 |
geographic |
Arctic Pacific |
geographic_facet |
Arctic Pacific |
genre |
Arctic |
genre_facet |
Arctic |
op_source |
PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases, Vol 14, Iss 3, p e0008110 (2020) |
op_relation |
https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0008110 https://doaj.org/toc/1935-2727 https://doaj.org/toc/1935-2735 1935-2727 1935-2735 doi:10.1371/journal.pntd.0008110 https://doaj.org/article/72f09f9a432c4ed49269e89f604aef54 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0008110 |
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PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases |
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14 |
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3 |
container_start_page |
e0008110 |
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1766343042516647936 |