The regional temperature implications of strong air quality measures
Anthropogenic emissions of short-lived climate forcers (SLCFs) affect both air quality and climate. How much regional temperatures are affected by ambitious SLCF emission mitigation policies is, however, still uncertain. We investigate the potential temperature implications of stringent air quality...
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:713261af8da14dbeaf0d463861b047f4 2023-05-15T15:16:03+02:00 The regional temperature implications of strong air quality measures B. Aamaas T. K. Berntsen B. H. Samset 2019-12-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-15235-2019 https://doaj.org/article/713261af8da14dbeaf0d463861b047f4 EN eng Copernicus Publications https://www.atmos-chem-phys.net/19/15235/2019/acp-19-15235-2019.pdf https://doaj.org/toc/1680-7316 https://doaj.org/toc/1680-7324 doi:10.5194/acp-19-15235-2019 1680-7316 1680-7324 https://doaj.org/article/713261af8da14dbeaf0d463861b047f4 Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, Vol 19, Pp 15235-15245 (2019) Physics QC1-999 Chemistry QD1-999 article 2019 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-15235-2019 2022-12-31T12:35:23Z Anthropogenic emissions of short-lived climate forcers (SLCFs) affect both air quality and climate. How much regional temperatures are affected by ambitious SLCF emission mitigation policies is, however, still uncertain. We investigate the potential temperature implications of stringent air quality policies by applying matrices of regional temperature responses to new pathways for future anthropogenic emissions of aerosols, methane ( CH 4 ), and other short-lived gases. These measures have only a minor impact on CO 2 emissions. Two main options are explored, one with climate optimal reductions (i.e., constructed to yield a maximum global cooling) and one with the maximum technically feasible reductions. The temperature response is calculated for four latitude response bands (90–28 ∘ S, 28 ∘ S–28 ∘ N, 28–60 ∘ N, and 60–90 ∘ N) by using existing absolute regional temperature change potential (ARTP) values for four emission regions: Europe, East Asia, shipping, and the rest of the world. By 2050, we find that global surface temperature can be reduced by <math xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" id="M8" display="inline" overflow="scroll" dspmath="mathml"><mrow><mo>-</mo><mn mathvariant="normal">0.3</mn><mo>±</mo><mn mathvariant="normal">0.08</mn></mrow></math> <svg:svg xmlns:svg="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="58pt" height="10pt" class="svg-formula" dspmath="mathimg" md5hash="57ecb62e399fb769f244ac0e41de3edd"><svg:image xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xlink:href="acp-19-15235-2019-ie00001.svg" width="58pt" height="10pt" src="acp-19-15235-2019-ie00001.png"/></svg:svg> ∘ C with climate-optimal mitigation of SLCFs relative to a baseline scenario and as much as −0.7 ∘ C in the Arctic. Cutting CH 4 and black carbon (BC) emissions contributes the most. The net global cooling could offset warming equal to approximately 15 years of current global CO 2 emissions. On the other hand, mitigation of other SLCFs (e.g., ... Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic black carbon Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Arctic Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics 19 24 15235 15245 |
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op_collection_id |
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English |
topic |
Physics QC1-999 Chemistry QD1-999 |
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Physics QC1-999 Chemistry QD1-999 B. Aamaas T. K. Berntsen B. H. Samset The regional temperature implications of strong air quality measures |
topic_facet |
Physics QC1-999 Chemistry QD1-999 |
description |
Anthropogenic emissions of short-lived climate forcers (SLCFs) affect both air quality and climate. How much regional temperatures are affected by ambitious SLCF emission mitigation policies is, however, still uncertain. We investigate the potential temperature implications of stringent air quality policies by applying matrices of regional temperature responses to new pathways for future anthropogenic emissions of aerosols, methane ( CH 4 ), and other short-lived gases. These measures have only a minor impact on CO 2 emissions. Two main options are explored, one with climate optimal reductions (i.e., constructed to yield a maximum global cooling) and one with the maximum technically feasible reductions. The temperature response is calculated for four latitude response bands (90–28 ∘ S, 28 ∘ S–28 ∘ N, 28–60 ∘ N, and 60–90 ∘ N) by using existing absolute regional temperature change potential (ARTP) values for four emission regions: Europe, East Asia, shipping, and the rest of the world. By 2050, we find that global surface temperature can be reduced by <math xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" id="M8" display="inline" overflow="scroll" dspmath="mathml"><mrow><mo>-</mo><mn mathvariant="normal">0.3</mn><mo>±</mo><mn mathvariant="normal">0.08</mn></mrow></math> <svg:svg xmlns:svg="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="58pt" height="10pt" class="svg-formula" dspmath="mathimg" md5hash="57ecb62e399fb769f244ac0e41de3edd"><svg:image xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xlink:href="acp-19-15235-2019-ie00001.svg" width="58pt" height="10pt" src="acp-19-15235-2019-ie00001.png"/></svg:svg> ∘ C with climate-optimal mitigation of SLCFs relative to a baseline scenario and as much as −0.7 ∘ C in the Arctic. Cutting CH 4 and black carbon (BC) emissions contributes the most. The net global cooling could offset warming equal to approximately 15 years of current global CO 2 emissions. On the other hand, mitigation of other SLCFs (e.g., ... |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
B. Aamaas T. K. Berntsen B. H. Samset |
author_facet |
B. Aamaas T. K. Berntsen B. H. Samset |
author_sort |
B. Aamaas |
title |
The regional temperature implications of strong air quality measures |
title_short |
The regional temperature implications of strong air quality measures |
title_full |
The regional temperature implications of strong air quality measures |
title_fullStr |
The regional temperature implications of strong air quality measures |
title_full_unstemmed |
The regional temperature implications of strong air quality measures |
title_sort |
regional temperature implications of strong air quality measures |
publisher |
Copernicus Publications |
publishDate |
2019 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-15235-2019 https://doaj.org/article/713261af8da14dbeaf0d463861b047f4 |
geographic |
Arctic |
geographic_facet |
Arctic |
genre |
Arctic black carbon |
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Arctic black carbon |
op_source |
Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, Vol 19, Pp 15235-15245 (2019) |
op_relation |
https://www.atmos-chem-phys.net/19/15235/2019/acp-19-15235-2019.pdf https://doaj.org/toc/1680-7316 https://doaj.org/toc/1680-7324 doi:10.5194/acp-19-15235-2019 1680-7316 1680-7324 https://doaj.org/article/713261af8da14dbeaf0d463861b047f4 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-15235-2019 |
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Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics |
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19 |
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24 |
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15235 |
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15245 |
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