Integrated Energy Systems Modeling with Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis and Stakeholder Engagement for Identifying a Sustainable Energy Transition

The aim of this paper is to present a decision support system (DSS) to capture the complexity of the transition of a national energy system to net zero in the context of multiple sustainability themes. The paper proposes an integrated assessment framework that combines dynamic systems modeling, sust...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Energies
Main Authors: Brynhildur Davidsdottir, Eyjólfur Ingi Ásgeirsson, Reza Fazeli, Ingunn Gunnarsdottir, Jonathan Leaver, Ehsan Shafiei, Hlynur Stefánsson
Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
Language:English
Published: MDPI AG 2024
Subjects:
sustainable energy development
system dynamics modeling
sustainability indicators
multi-criteria decision analysis
stakeholder engagement
low-carbon transport
Technology
T
Iceland
Online Access:https://doi.org/10.3390/en17174266
https://doaj.org/article/70df74cef7c44b0b8c38a94c000fceff
Description
Summary:The aim of this paper is to present a decision support system (DSS) to capture the complexity of the transition of a national energy system to net zero in the context of multiple sustainability themes. The paper proposes an integrated assessment framework that combines dynamic systems modeling, sustainability indicators, and multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) with direct stakeholder involvement. To illustrate the use of the DSS, the paper compares bundles of climate change policies that aim to decarbonize the road transport sector in Iceland. Eighteen scenarios and alternative development trajectories are defined for the Icelandic energy system based on a combination of three main driving forces. These are, firstly, economic development (three cases); secondly, changes in energy efficiency (two cases); and finally, three climate policy bundles aimed at increasing the share of electric vehicles. Based on the results from the integrated assessment framework, the performance scores of the climate policy bundles are compared across the following five sustainability themes: social impact; economic development; environmental impact; energy security; and technical aspects. The findings confirm that a different conclusion may be reached when multiple sustainability themes are applied in the selection of preferred policy bundles as compared to conventional techno-economic criteria. Banning the registration of fossil-fueled vehicles, combined with economic instruments, offers the best decarbonizing strategy to reach climate and energy policy goals simultaneously.

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