Investigating the Dark Figure of COVID-19 Cases in Austria: Borrowing From the Decode Genetics Study in Iceland

The number of undetected cases of SARS-CoV-2 infections is expected to be a multiple of the reported figures mainly due to the high ratio of asymptomatic infections and to limited availability of trustworthy testing resources. Relying on the deCODE study in Iceland, which offers large scale testing...

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Published in:Austrian Journal of Statistics
Main Authors: Rainer Hirk, Gregor Kastner, Laura Vana
Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
Language:English
Published: Austrian Statistical Society 2020
Subjects:
Online Access:https://doi.org/10.17713/ajs.v49i4.1142
https://doaj.org/article/6f86631bb0d74db08b2f11d122f15a22
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spelling ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:6f86631bb0d74db08b2f11d122f15a22 2023-05-15T16:47:03+02:00 Investigating the Dark Figure of COVID-19 Cases in Austria: Borrowing From the Decode Genetics Study in Iceland Rainer Hirk Gregor Kastner Laura Vana 2020-05-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.17713/ajs.v49i4.1142 https://doaj.org/article/6f86631bb0d74db08b2f11d122f15a22 EN eng Austrian Statistical Society https://ajs.or.at/index.php/ajs/article/view/1142 https://doaj.org/toc/1026-597X doi:10.17713/ajs.v49i4.1142 1026-597X https://doaj.org/article/6f86631bb0d74db08b2f11d122f15a22 Austrian Journal of Statistics, Vol 49, Iss 5 (2020) Probabilities. Mathematical statistics QA273-280 Statistics HA1-4737 article 2020 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.17713/ajs.v49i4.1142 2022-12-31T15:10:27Z The number of undetected cases of SARS-CoV-2 infections is expected to be a multiple of the reported figures mainly due to the high ratio of asymptomatic infections and to limited availability of trustworthy testing resources. Relying on the deCODE study in Iceland, which offers large scale testing among the general population, we investigate the magnitude and uncertainty of the number of undetected cases COVID-19 cases in Austria. We formulate several scenarios relying on data on the number of COVID-19 cases which have been hospitalized, in intensive care, as well as on the number of deaths and positive tests in Iceland and Austria. We employ frequentist and Bayesian methods for estimating the dark figure in Austria based on the hypothesized scenarios and for accounting for the uncertainty surrounding this figure. Using data available on April 1, 2020, our study contains two main findings: First, we find the estimated number of infections to be on average around 8.35 times higher than the recorded number of infections. Second, the width of the uncertainty bounds associated with this figure depends highly on the statistical method employed. At a 95% level, lower bounds range from 3.96 to 6.83 and upper bounds range from 9.82 to 12.61. Overall, our findings confirm the need for systematic tests in the general population of Austria. Article in Journal/Newspaper Iceland Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Austrian Journal of Statistics 49 5 1 17
institution Open Polar
collection Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles
op_collection_id ftdoajarticles
language English
topic Probabilities. Mathematical statistics
QA273-280
Statistics
HA1-4737
spellingShingle Probabilities. Mathematical statistics
QA273-280
Statistics
HA1-4737
Rainer Hirk
Gregor Kastner
Laura Vana
Investigating the Dark Figure of COVID-19 Cases in Austria: Borrowing From the Decode Genetics Study in Iceland
topic_facet Probabilities. Mathematical statistics
QA273-280
Statistics
HA1-4737
description The number of undetected cases of SARS-CoV-2 infections is expected to be a multiple of the reported figures mainly due to the high ratio of asymptomatic infections and to limited availability of trustworthy testing resources. Relying on the deCODE study in Iceland, which offers large scale testing among the general population, we investigate the magnitude and uncertainty of the number of undetected cases COVID-19 cases in Austria. We formulate several scenarios relying on data on the number of COVID-19 cases which have been hospitalized, in intensive care, as well as on the number of deaths and positive tests in Iceland and Austria. We employ frequentist and Bayesian methods for estimating the dark figure in Austria based on the hypothesized scenarios and for accounting for the uncertainty surrounding this figure. Using data available on April 1, 2020, our study contains two main findings: First, we find the estimated number of infections to be on average around 8.35 times higher than the recorded number of infections. Second, the width of the uncertainty bounds associated with this figure depends highly on the statistical method employed. At a 95% level, lower bounds range from 3.96 to 6.83 and upper bounds range from 9.82 to 12.61. Overall, our findings confirm the need for systematic tests in the general population of Austria.
format Article in Journal/Newspaper
author Rainer Hirk
Gregor Kastner
Laura Vana
author_facet Rainer Hirk
Gregor Kastner
Laura Vana
author_sort Rainer Hirk
title Investigating the Dark Figure of COVID-19 Cases in Austria: Borrowing From the Decode Genetics Study in Iceland
title_short Investigating the Dark Figure of COVID-19 Cases in Austria: Borrowing From the Decode Genetics Study in Iceland
title_full Investigating the Dark Figure of COVID-19 Cases in Austria: Borrowing From the Decode Genetics Study in Iceland
title_fullStr Investigating the Dark Figure of COVID-19 Cases in Austria: Borrowing From the Decode Genetics Study in Iceland
title_full_unstemmed Investigating the Dark Figure of COVID-19 Cases in Austria: Borrowing From the Decode Genetics Study in Iceland
title_sort investigating the dark figure of covid-19 cases in austria: borrowing from the decode genetics study in iceland
publisher Austrian Statistical Society
publishDate 2020
url https://doi.org/10.17713/ajs.v49i4.1142
https://doaj.org/article/6f86631bb0d74db08b2f11d122f15a22
genre Iceland
genre_facet Iceland
op_source Austrian Journal of Statistics, Vol 49, Iss 5 (2020)
op_relation https://ajs.or.at/index.php/ajs/article/view/1142
https://doaj.org/toc/1026-597X
doi:10.17713/ajs.v49i4.1142
1026-597X
https://doaj.org/article/6f86631bb0d74db08b2f11d122f15a22
op_doi https://doi.org/10.17713/ajs.v49i4.1142
container_title Austrian Journal of Statistics
container_volume 49
container_issue 5
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