Climate change impacts to the coastal flood hazard in the northeastern United States
It is widely accepted that climate change will cause sea level rise and increase the coastal flood hazard in many places. However, climate change also has significant implications for hurricane climatology. While the effect of climate change on hurricane frequency is inconclusive, there is a general...
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:6f205b65516e44c8ba659bfc8b2eca96 2023-05-15T17:35:14+02:00 Climate change impacts to the coastal flood hazard in the northeastern United States Talea L. Mayo Ning Lin 2022-06-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wace.2022.100453 https://doaj.org/article/6f205b65516e44c8ba659bfc8b2eca96 EN eng Elsevier http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2212094722000378 https://doaj.org/toc/2212-0947 2212-0947 doi:10.1016/j.wace.2022.100453 https://doaj.org/article/6f205b65516e44c8ba659bfc8b2eca96 Weather and Climate Extremes, Vol 36, Iss , Pp 100453- (2022) Hurricane Storm surge Flood risk Climate change SLOSH Coastal resilience Meteorology. Climatology QC851-999 article 2022 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wace.2022.100453 2022-12-30T23:53:55Z It is widely accepted that climate change will cause sea level rise and increase the coastal flood hazard in many places. However, climate change also has significant implications for hurricane climatology. While the effect of climate change on hurricane frequency is inconclusive, there is a general consensus among climate scientists that hurricane intensity will increase over the coming decades. A number of studies indicate that hurricane size and translation speed may intensify with climate change as well. Each of these properties influences storm surge generation and propagation, and thus has significant implications for the coastal flood hazard, particularly in the densely populated northeast region of the U.S. As coastal populations grow, increasing the resilience of the built environment will become an increasingly necessary priority. Local, detailed, and comprehensive flood hazard assessment is a central aspect of such efforts. In this work, we integrate global climate data, statistical-deterministic hurricane modeling, physics-based numerical storm surge modeling, and extreme value analysis methods to comprehensively assess the present day and end of century flood hazard due to hurricanes for several coastal communities along the U.S. North Atlantic coastline. We find that by the end of the century, annual exceedance probabilities of the 100-year flood may increase by factors as great as 7 due to sea level rise, and on average projected changes to tropical cyclone climatology cause these probabilities to double. For truly effective long-term resilience efforts, coastal engineers, planners, and other stakeholders must account for climate change impacts to both sea level and tropical storm climatology. Article in Journal/Newspaper North Atlantic Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Weather and Climate Extremes 36 100453 |
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Open Polar |
collection |
Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
op_collection_id |
ftdoajarticles |
language |
English |
topic |
Hurricane Storm surge Flood risk Climate change SLOSH Coastal resilience Meteorology. Climatology QC851-999 |
spellingShingle |
Hurricane Storm surge Flood risk Climate change SLOSH Coastal resilience Meteorology. Climatology QC851-999 Talea L. Mayo Ning Lin Climate change impacts to the coastal flood hazard in the northeastern United States |
topic_facet |
Hurricane Storm surge Flood risk Climate change SLOSH Coastal resilience Meteorology. Climatology QC851-999 |
description |
It is widely accepted that climate change will cause sea level rise and increase the coastal flood hazard in many places. However, climate change also has significant implications for hurricane climatology. While the effect of climate change on hurricane frequency is inconclusive, there is a general consensus among climate scientists that hurricane intensity will increase over the coming decades. A number of studies indicate that hurricane size and translation speed may intensify with climate change as well. Each of these properties influences storm surge generation and propagation, and thus has significant implications for the coastal flood hazard, particularly in the densely populated northeast region of the U.S. As coastal populations grow, increasing the resilience of the built environment will become an increasingly necessary priority. Local, detailed, and comprehensive flood hazard assessment is a central aspect of such efforts. In this work, we integrate global climate data, statistical-deterministic hurricane modeling, physics-based numerical storm surge modeling, and extreme value analysis methods to comprehensively assess the present day and end of century flood hazard due to hurricanes for several coastal communities along the U.S. North Atlantic coastline. We find that by the end of the century, annual exceedance probabilities of the 100-year flood may increase by factors as great as 7 due to sea level rise, and on average projected changes to tropical cyclone climatology cause these probabilities to double. For truly effective long-term resilience efforts, coastal engineers, planners, and other stakeholders must account for climate change impacts to both sea level and tropical storm climatology. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Talea L. Mayo Ning Lin |
author_facet |
Talea L. Mayo Ning Lin |
author_sort |
Talea L. Mayo |
title |
Climate change impacts to the coastal flood hazard in the northeastern United States |
title_short |
Climate change impacts to the coastal flood hazard in the northeastern United States |
title_full |
Climate change impacts to the coastal flood hazard in the northeastern United States |
title_fullStr |
Climate change impacts to the coastal flood hazard in the northeastern United States |
title_full_unstemmed |
Climate change impacts to the coastal flood hazard in the northeastern United States |
title_sort |
climate change impacts to the coastal flood hazard in the northeastern united states |
publisher |
Elsevier |
publishDate |
2022 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wace.2022.100453 https://doaj.org/article/6f205b65516e44c8ba659bfc8b2eca96 |
genre |
North Atlantic |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic |
op_source |
Weather and Climate Extremes, Vol 36, Iss , Pp 100453- (2022) |
op_relation |
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2212094722000378 https://doaj.org/toc/2212-0947 2212-0947 doi:10.1016/j.wace.2022.100453 https://doaj.org/article/6f205b65516e44c8ba659bfc8b2eca96 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wace.2022.100453 |
container_title |
Weather and Climate Extremes |
container_volume |
36 |
container_start_page |
100453 |
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