The stability of present-day Antarctic grounding lines – Part 1: No indication of marine ice sheet instability in the current geometry
Theoretical and numerical work has shown that under certain circumstances grounding lines of marine-type ice sheets can enter phases of irreversible advance and retreat driven by the marine ice sheet instability (MISI). Instances of such irreversible retreat have been found in several simulations of...
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:6eac79cc79fd4d5db8197ee980d1da42 2023-10-09T21:45:27+02:00 The stability of present-day Antarctic grounding lines – Part 1: No indication of marine ice sheet instability in the current geometry E. A. Hill B. Urruty R. Reese J. Garbe O. Gagliardini G. Durand F. Gillet-Chaulet G. H. Gudmundsson R. Winkelmann M. Chekki D. Chandler P. M. Langebroek 2023-09-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-3739-2023 https://doaj.org/article/6eac79cc79fd4d5db8197ee980d1da42 EN eng Copernicus Publications https://tc.copernicus.org/articles/17/3739/2023/tc-17-3739-2023.pdf https://doaj.org/toc/1994-0416 https://doaj.org/toc/1994-0424 doi:10.5194/tc-17-3739-2023 1994-0416 1994-0424 https://doaj.org/article/6eac79cc79fd4d5db8197ee980d1da42 The Cryosphere, Vol 17, Pp 3739-3759 (2023) Environmental sciences GE1-350 Geology QE1-996.5 article 2023 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-3739-2023 2023-09-10T00:35:42Z Theoretical and numerical work has shown that under certain circumstances grounding lines of marine-type ice sheets can enter phases of irreversible advance and retreat driven by the marine ice sheet instability (MISI). Instances of such irreversible retreat have been found in several simulations of the Antarctic Ice Sheet. However, it has not been assessed whether the Antarctic grounding lines are already undergoing MISI in their current position . Here, we conduct a systematic numerical stability analysis using three state-of-the-art ice sheet models: Úa, Elmer/Ice, and the Parallel Ice Sheet Model (PISM). For the first two models, we construct steady-state initial configurations whereby the simulated grounding lines remain at the observed present-day positions through time. The third model, PISM, uses a spin-up procedure and historical forcing such that its transient state is close to the observed one. To assess the stability of these simulated states, we apply short-term perturbations to submarine melting. Our results show that the grounding lines around Antarctica migrate slightly away from their initial position while the perturbation is applied, and they revert once the perturbation is removed. This indicates that present-day retreat of Antarctic grounding lines is not yet irreversible or self-sustained. However, our accompanying paper (Part 2, Reese et al. , 2023 a ) shows that if the grounding lines retreated further inland, under present-day climate forcing, it may lead to the eventual irreversible collapse of some marine regions of West Antarctica. Article in Journal/Newspaper Antarc* Antarctic Antarctica Ice Sheet The Cryosphere West Antarctica Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Antarctic Misi ENVELOPE(26.683,26.683,66.617,66.617) The Antarctic West Antarctica The Cryosphere 17 9 3739 3759 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
op_collection_id |
ftdoajarticles |
language |
English |
topic |
Environmental sciences GE1-350 Geology QE1-996.5 |
spellingShingle |
Environmental sciences GE1-350 Geology QE1-996.5 E. A. Hill B. Urruty R. Reese J. Garbe O. Gagliardini G. Durand F. Gillet-Chaulet G. H. Gudmundsson R. Winkelmann M. Chekki D. Chandler P. M. Langebroek The stability of present-day Antarctic grounding lines – Part 1: No indication of marine ice sheet instability in the current geometry |
topic_facet |
Environmental sciences GE1-350 Geology QE1-996.5 |
description |
Theoretical and numerical work has shown that under certain circumstances grounding lines of marine-type ice sheets can enter phases of irreversible advance and retreat driven by the marine ice sheet instability (MISI). Instances of such irreversible retreat have been found in several simulations of the Antarctic Ice Sheet. However, it has not been assessed whether the Antarctic grounding lines are already undergoing MISI in their current position . Here, we conduct a systematic numerical stability analysis using three state-of-the-art ice sheet models: Úa, Elmer/Ice, and the Parallel Ice Sheet Model (PISM). For the first two models, we construct steady-state initial configurations whereby the simulated grounding lines remain at the observed present-day positions through time. The third model, PISM, uses a spin-up procedure and historical forcing such that its transient state is close to the observed one. To assess the stability of these simulated states, we apply short-term perturbations to submarine melting. Our results show that the grounding lines around Antarctica migrate slightly away from their initial position while the perturbation is applied, and they revert once the perturbation is removed. This indicates that present-day retreat of Antarctic grounding lines is not yet irreversible or self-sustained. However, our accompanying paper (Part 2, Reese et al. , 2023 a ) shows that if the grounding lines retreated further inland, under present-day climate forcing, it may lead to the eventual irreversible collapse of some marine regions of West Antarctica. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
E. A. Hill B. Urruty R. Reese J. Garbe O. Gagliardini G. Durand F. Gillet-Chaulet G. H. Gudmundsson R. Winkelmann M. Chekki D. Chandler P. M. Langebroek |
author_facet |
E. A. Hill B. Urruty R. Reese J. Garbe O. Gagliardini G. Durand F. Gillet-Chaulet G. H. Gudmundsson R. Winkelmann M. Chekki D. Chandler P. M. Langebroek |
author_sort |
E. A. Hill |
title |
The stability of present-day Antarctic grounding lines – Part 1: No indication of marine ice sheet instability in the current geometry |
title_short |
The stability of present-day Antarctic grounding lines – Part 1: No indication of marine ice sheet instability in the current geometry |
title_full |
The stability of present-day Antarctic grounding lines – Part 1: No indication of marine ice sheet instability in the current geometry |
title_fullStr |
The stability of present-day Antarctic grounding lines – Part 1: No indication of marine ice sheet instability in the current geometry |
title_full_unstemmed |
The stability of present-day Antarctic grounding lines – Part 1: No indication of marine ice sheet instability in the current geometry |
title_sort |
stability of present-day antarctic grounding lines – part 1: no indication of marine ice sheet instability in the current geometry |
publisher |
Copernicus Publications |
publishDate |
2023 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-3739-2023 https://doaj.org/article/6eac79cc79fd4d5db8197ee980d1da42 |
long_lat |
ENVELOPE(26.683,26.683,66.617,66.617) |
geographic |
Antarctic Misi The Antarctic West Antarctica |
geographic_facet |
Antarctic Misi The Antarctic West Antarctica |
genre |
Antarc* Antarctic Antarctica Ice Sheet The Cryosphere West Antarctica |
genre_facet |
Antarc* Antarctic Antarctica Ice Sheet The Cryosphere West Antarctica |
op_source |
The Cryosphere, Vol 17, Pp 3739-3759 (2023) |
op_relation |
https://tc.copernicus.org/articles/17/3739/2023/tc-17-3739-2023.pdf https://doaj.org/toc/1994-0416 https://doaj.org/toc/1994-0424 doi:10.5194/tc-17-3739-2023 1994-0416 1994-0424 https://doaj.org/article/6eac79cc79fd4d5db8197ee980d1da42 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-3739-2023 |
container_title |
The Cryosphere |
container_volume |
17 |
container_issue |
9 |
container_start_page |
3739 |
op_container_end_page |
3759 |
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1779318862066483200 |