Complex behaviour and predictability of the European dry spell regimes
The complex spatial and temporal characteristics of European dry spell lengths, DSL, (sequences of consecutive days with rainfall amount below a certain threshold) and their randomness and predictive instability are analysed from daily pluviometric series recorded at 267 rain gauges along the second...
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:6e6da9f205084321812202897da3668f 2023-05-15T15:13:36+02:00 Complex behaviour and predictability of the European dry spell regimes X. Lana M. D. Martínez C. Serra A. Burgueño 2010-09-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-17-499-2010 https://doaj.org/article/6e6da9f205084321812202897da3668f EN eng Copernicus Publications http://www.nonlin-processes-geophys.net/17/499/2010/npg-17-499-2010.pdf https://doaj.org/toc/1023-5809 https://doaj.org/toc/1607-7946 doi:10.5194/npg-17-499-2010 1023-5809 1607-7946 https://doaj.org/article/6e6da9f205084321812202897da3668f Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics, Vol 17, Iss 5, Pp 499-512 (2010) Science Q Physics QC1-999 Geophysics. Cosmic physics QC801-809 article 2010 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-17-499-2010 2022-12-30T21:58:07Z The complex spatial and temporal characteristics of European dry spell lengths, DSL, (sequences of consecutive days with rainfall amount below a certain threshold) and their randomness and predictive instability are analysed from daily pluviometric series recorded at 267 rain gauges along the second half of the 20th century. DSL are obtained by considering four thresholds, R 0 , of 0.1, 1.0, 5.0 and 10.0 mm/day. A proper quantification of the complexity, randomness and predictive instability of the different DSL regimes in Europe is achieved on the basis of fractal analyses and dynamic system theory, including the reconstruction theorem. First, the concept of lacunarity is applied to the series of daily rainfall, and the lacunarity curves are well fitted to Cantor and random Cantor sets. Second, the rescaled analysis reveals that randomness, persistence and anti-persistence are present on the European DSL series. Third, the complexity of the physical process governing the DSL series is quantified by the minimum number of nonlinear equations determined by the correlation dimension. And fourth, the loss of memory of the physical process, which is one of the reasons for the complex predictability, is characterized by the values of the Kolmogorov entropy, and the predictive instability is directly associated with positive Lyapunov exponents. In this way, new bases for a better prediction of DSLs in Europe, sometimes leading to drought episodes, are established. Concretely, three predictive strategies are proposed in Sect. 5. It is worth mentioning that the spatial distribution of all fractal parameters does not solely depend on latitude and longitude but also reflects the effects of orography, continental climate or vicinity to the Atlantic and Arctic Oceans and Mediterranean Sea. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Arctic Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics 17 5 499 512 |
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Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
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language |
English |
topic |
Science Q Physics QC1-999 Geophysics. Cosmic physics QC801-809 |
spellingShingle |
Science Q Physics QC1-999 Geophysics. Cosmic physics QC801-809 X. Lana M. D. Martínez C. Serra A. Burgueño Complex behaviour and predictability of the European dry spell regimes |
topic_facet |
Science Q Physics QC1-999 Geophysics. Cosmic physics QC801-809 |
description |
The complex spatial and temporal characteristics of European dry spell lengths, DSL, (sequences of consecutive days with rainfall amount below a certain threshold) and their randomness and predictive instability are analysed from daily pluviometric series recorded at 267 rain gauges along the second half of the 20th century. DSL are obtained by considering four thresholds, R 0 , of 0.1, 1.0, 5.0 and 10.0 mm/day. A proper quantification of the complexity, randomness and predictive instability of the different DSL regimes in Europe is achieved on the basis of fractal analyses and dynamic system theory, including the reconstruction theorem. First, the concept of lacunarity is applied to the series of daily rainfall, and the lacunarity curves are well fitted to Cantor and random Cantor sets. Second, the rescaled analysis reveals that randomness, persistence and anti-persistence are present on the European DSL series. Third, the complexity of the physical process governing the DSL series is quantified by the minimum number of nonlinear equations determined by the correlation dimension. And fourth, the loss of memory of the physical process, which is one of the reasons for the complex predictability, is characterized by the values of the Kolmogorov entropy, and the predictive instability is directly associated with positive Lyapunov exponents. In this way, new bases for a better prediction of DSLs in Europe, sometimes leading to drought episodes, are established. Concretely, three predictive strategies are proposed in Sect. 5. It is worth mentioning that the spatial distribution of all fractal parameters does not solely depend on latitude and longitude but also reflects the effects of orography, continental climate or vicinity to the Atlantic and Arctic Oceans and Mediterranean Sea. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
X. Lana M. D. Martínez C. Serra A. Burgueño |
author_facet |
X. Lana M. D. Martínez C. Serra A. Burgueño |
author_sort |
X. Lana |
title |
Complex behaviour and predictability of the European dry spell regimes |
title_short |
Complex behaviour and predictability of the European dry spell regimes |
title_full |
Complex behaviour and predictability of the European dry spell regimes |
title_fullStr |
Complex behaviour and predictability of the European dry spell regimes |
title_full_unstemmed |
Complex behaviour and predictability of the European dry spell regimes |
title_sort |
complex behaviour and predictability of the european dry spell regimes |
publisher |
Copernicus Publications |
publishDate |
2010 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-17-499-2010 https://doaj.org/article/6e6da9f205084321812202897da3668f |
geographic |
Arctic |
geographic_facet |
Arctic |
genre |
Arctic |
genre_facet |
Arctic |
op_source |
Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics, Vol 17, Iss 5, Pp 499-512 (2010) |
op_relation |
http://www.nonlin-processes-geophys.net/17/499/2010/npg-17-499-2010.pdf https://doaj.org/toc/1023-5809 https://doaj.org/toc/1607-7946 doi:10.5194/npg-17-499-2010 1023-5809 1607-7946 https://doaj.org/article/6e6da9f205084321812202897da3668f |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-17-499-2010 |
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Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics |
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17 |
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5 |
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499 |
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512 |
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