Identifying remote sources of interannual variability for summer precipitation over Nordic European countries tied to global teleconnection wave patterns
We show evidence that tropical atmospheric variability over the central tropical Pacific modulates the circulation over the western Arctic and the North Atlantic-European sector, impacting the summer precipitation especially over Nordic European countries (NEC). Our results, based on the ERA5 reanal...
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Stockholm University Press
2020
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Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1080/16000870.2020.1764303 https://doaj.org/article/6cf779a32c144440b1faccf7b037c95e |
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:6cf779a32c144440b1faccf7b037c95e 2023-05-15T15:05:31+02:00 Identifying remote sources of interannual variability for summer precipitation over Nordic European countries tied to global teleconnection wave patterns Ramón Fuentes-Franco Torben Koenigk 2020-01-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.1080/16000870.2020.1764303 https://doaj.org/article/6cf779a32c144440b1faccf7b037c95e EN eng Stockholm University Press http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/16000870.2020.1764303 https://doaj.org/toc/1600-0870 1600-0870 doi:10.1080/16000870.2020.1764303 https://doaj.org/article/6cf779a32c144440b1faccf7b037c95e Tellus: Series A, Dynamic Meteorology and Oceanography, Vol 72, Iss 1, Pp 1-15 (2020) summer precipitation teleconnection nordic european countries tropical pacific pna Oceanography GC1-1581 Meteorology. Climatology QC851-999 article 2020 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.1080/16000870.2020.1764303 2022-12-30T23:26:45Z We show evidence that tropical atmospheric variability over the central tropical Pacific modulates the circulation over the western Arctic and the North Atlantic-European sector, impacting the summer precipitation especially over Nordic European countries (NEC). Our results, based on the ERA5 reanalysis, suggest the occurrence of a teleconnection mechanism (similar to the Pacific North American pattern) between the tropical Pacific in early spring and summer precipitation over NEC, and we propose two indices as predictors for NEC summer precipitation based on geopotential height anomalies at 500 hPa over the western tropical Pacific during March. We propose an empirical model based on both indices as predictors and assess the model’s skill with a leave-one-out cross-validation procedure. Over large portions of NEC, our proposed empirical model is able to reproduce dry, normal and wet years, defined from summer standardized precipitation anomalies, with a Heidke skill score greater than 0.9. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic North Atlantic Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Arctic Pacific Tellus A: Dynamic Meteorology and Oceanography 72 1 1 15 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
op_collection_id |
ftdoajarticles |
language |
English |
topic |
summer precipitation teleconnection nordic european countries tropical pacific pna Oceanography GC1-1581 Meteorology. Climatology QC851-999 |
spellingShingle |
summer precipitation teleconnection nordic european countries tropical pacific pna Oceanography GC1-1581 Meteorology. Climatology QC851-999 Ramón Fuentes-Franco Torben Koenigk Identifying remote sources of interannual variability for summer precipitation over Nordic European countries tied to global teleconnection wave patterns |
topic_facet |
summer precipitation teleconnection nordic european countries tropical pacific pna Oceanography GC1-1581 Meteorology. Climatology QC851-999 |
description |
We show evidence that tropical atmospheric variability over the central tropical Pacific modulates the circulation over the western Arctic and the North Atlantic-European sector, impacting the summer precipitation especially over Nordic European countries (NEC). Our results, based on the ERA5 reanalysis, suggest the occurrence of a teleconnection mechanism (similar to the Pacific North American pattern) between the tropical Pacific in early spring and summer precipitation over NEC, and we propose two indices as predictors for NEC summer precipitation based on geopotential height anomalies at 500 hPa over the western tropical Pacific during March. We propose an empirical model based on both indices as predictors and assess the model’s skill with a leave-one-out cross-validation procedure. Over large portions of NEC, our proposed empirical model is able to reproduce dry, normal and wet years, defined from summer standardized precipitation anomalies, with a Heidke skill score greater than 0.9. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Ramón Fuentes-Franco Torben Koenigk |
author_facet |
Ramón Fuentes-Franco Torben Koenigk |
author_sort |
Ramón Fuentes-Franco |
title |
Identifying remote sources of interannual variability for summer precipitation over Nordic European countries tied to global teleconnection wave patterns |
title_short |
Identifying remote sources of interannual variability for summer precipitation over Nordic European countries tied to global teleconnection wave patterns |
title_full |
Identifying remote sources of interannual variability for summer precipitation over Nordic European countries tied to global teleconnection wave patterns |
title_fullStr |
Identifying remote sources of interannual variability for summer precipitation over Nordic European countries tied to global teleconnection wave patterns |
title_full_unstemmed |
Identifying remote sources of interannual variability for summer precipitation over Nordic European countries tied to global teleconnection wave patterns |
title_sort |
identifying remote sources of interannual variability for summer precipitation over nordic european countries tied to global teleconnection wave patterns |
publisher |
Stockholm University Press |
publishDate |
2020 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.1080/16000870.2020.1764303 https://doaj.org/article/6cf779a32c144440b1faccf7b037c95e |
geographic |
Arctic Pacific |
geographic_facet |
Arctic Pacific |
genre |
Arctic North Atlantic |
genre_facet |
Arctic North Atlantic |
op_source |
Tellus: Series A, Dynamic Meteorology and Oceanography, Vol 72, Iss 1, Pp 1-15 (2020) |
op_relation |
http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/16000870.2020.1764303 https://doaj.org/toc/1600-0870 1600-0870 doi:10.1080/16000870.2020.1764303 https://doaj.org/article/6cf779a32c144440b1faccf7b037c95e |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1080/16000870.2020.1764303 |
container_title |
Tellus A: Dynamic Meteorology and Oceanography |
container_volume |
72 |
container_issue |
1 |
container_start_page |
1 |
op_container_end_page |
15 |
_version_ |
1766337210742734848 |