Predicted changes in the distribution of Antarctic krill in the Cosmonaut Sea under future climate change scenarios
Antarctic krill (Euphausia superba) are the key species of the ecological system in the Cosmonaut Sea. Long-term habitat alterations in krill due to climate change have been considered in recent decades. However, there is still a lack understanding about krill distribution. The MaxEnt model was used...
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:6c7f06b23b664b96804ce6a761c97fc1 2023-05-15T13:58:18+02:00 Predicted changes in the distribution of Antarctic krill in the Cosmonaut Sea under future climate change scenarios Shiying Lin Liang Zhao Jianlong Feng 2022-09-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolind.2022.109234 https://doaj.org/article/6c7f06b23b664b96804ce6a761c97fc1 EN eng Elsevier http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1470160X22007063 https://doaj.org/toc/1470-160X 1470-160X doi:10.1016/j.ecolind.2022.109234 https://doaj.org/article/6c7f06b23b664b96804ce6a761c97fc1 Ecological Indicators, Vol 142, Iss , Pp 109234- (2022) Krill Climate change Cosmonaut Sea MaxEnt CMIP6 Ecology QH540-549.5 article 2022 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolind.2022.109234 2022-12-30T23:43:55Z Antarctic krill (Euphausia superba) are the key species of the ecological system in the Cosmonaut Sea. Long-term habitat alterations in krill due to climate change have been considered in recent decades. However, there is still a lack understanding about krill distribution. The MaxEnt model was used to forecast the suitable distribution area of krill for this study, which is based on data from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project in its sixth phase (CMIP6) in the near future and far future. A total of 145 occurrence points and 15 environmental factors were selected to build the MaxEnt model. The current suitable habitat regions for krill were mostly detected in the western and central regions of the Cosmonaut Sea, which accounted for 10.07% of the total area. The most important environmental variables that influenced krill distribution were minimum surface solar radiation downward (ssrdmin), the mean temperature (tem) and the mean northward velocity (v). In the near future and far future, the suitable area of krill was seen to decline under all shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs), with the smallest reduction under SSP1-2.6 and the greatest reduction under SSP5-8.5. The suitable area for krill dropped quicker from the near future to the far future than the present to the near future. Krill habitats were expected to shift to the poles. The tem continued to rise in the future under all SSP scenarios, particularly under the high radiative forcing scenario. The increase in water temperature is the main reason for the decrease in suitable areas for Antarctic krill. Our results show the future distribution of krill in the future and provide a reasonable reference for the ecological protection policy of the Cosmonaut Sea. Article in Journal/Newspaper Antarc* Antarctic Antarctic Krill Cosmonaut sea Euphausia superba Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Antarctic Ecological Indicators 142 109234 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
op_collection_id |
ftdoajarticles |
language |
English |
topic |
Krill Climate change Cosmonaut Sea MaxEnt CMIP6 Ecology QH540-549.5 |
spellingShingle |
Krill Climate change Cosmonaut Sea MaxEnt CMIP6 Ecology QH540-549.5 Shiying Lin Liang Zhao Jianlong Feng Predicted changes in the distribution of Antarctic krill in the Cosmonaut Sea under future climate change scenarios |
topic_facet |
Krill Climate change Cosmonaut Sea MaxEnt CMIP6 Ecology QH540-549.5 |
description |
Antarctic krill (Euphausia superba) are the key species of the ecological system in the Cosmonaut Sea. Long-term habitat alterations in krill due to climate change have been considered in recent decades. However, there is still a lack understanding about krill distribution. The MaxEnt model was used to forecast the suitable distribution area of krill for this study, which is based on data from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project in its sixth phase (CMIP6) in the near future and far future. A total of 145 occurrence points and 15 environmental factors were selected to build the MaxEnt model. The current suitable habitat regions for krill were mostly detected in the western and central regions of the Cosmonaut Sea, which accounted for 10.07% of the total area. The most important environmental variables that influenced krill distribution were minimum surface solar radiation downward (ssrdmin), the mean temperature (tem) and the mean northward velocity (v). In the near future and far future, the suitable area of krill was seen to decline under all shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs), with the smallest reduction under SSP1-2.6 and the greatest reduction under SSP5-8.5. The suitable area for krill dropped quicker from the near future to the far future than the present to the near future. Krill habitats were expected to shift to the poles. The tem continued to rise in the future under all SSP scenarios, particularly under the high radiative forcing scenario. The increase in water temperature is the main reason for the decrease in suitable areas for Antarctic krill. Our results show the future distribution of krill in the future and provide a reasonable reference for the ecological protection policy of the Cosmonaut Sea. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Shiying Lin Liang Zhao Jianlong Feng |
author_facet |
Shiying Lin Liang Zhao Jianlong Feng |
author_sort |
Shiying Lin |
title |
Predicted changes in the distribution of Antarctic krill in the Cosmonaut Sea under future climate change scenarios |
title_short |
Predicted changes in the distribution of Antarctic krill in the Cosmonaut Sea under future climate change scenarios |
title_full |
Predicted changes in the distribution of Antarctic krill in the Cosmonaut Sea under future climate change scenarios |
title_fullStr |
Predicted changes in the distribution of Antarctic krill in the Cosmonaut Sea under future climate change scenarios |
title_full_unstemmed |
Predicted changes in the distribution of Antarctic krill in the Cosmonaut Sea under future climate change scenarios |
title_sort |
predicted changes in the distribution of antarctic krill in the cosmonaut sea under future climate change scenarios |
publisher |
Elsevier |
publishDate |
2022 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolind.2022.109234 https://doaj.org/article/6c7f06b23b664b96804ce6a761c97fc1 |
geographic |
Antarctic |
geographic_facet |
Antarctic |
genre |
Antarc* Antarctic Antarctic Krill Cosmonaut sea Euphausia superba |
genre_facet |
Antarc* Antarctic Antarctic Krill Cosmonaut sea Euphausia superba |
op_source |
Ecological Indicators, Vol 142, Iss , Pp 109234- (2022) |
op_relation |
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1470160X22007063 https://doaj.org/toc/1470-160X 1470-160X doi:10.1016/j.ecolind.2022.109234 https://doaj.org/article/6c7f06b23b664b96804ce6a761c97fc1 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolind.2022.109234 |
container_title |
Ecological Indicators |
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142 |
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109234 |
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1766266532219846656 |