Constraining projections of summer Arctic sea ice
We examine the recent (1979–2010) and future (2011–2100) characteristics of the summer Arctic sea ice cover as simulated by 29 Earth system and general circulation models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, phase 5 (CMIP5). As was the case with CMIP3, a large intermodel spread persists i...
Published in: | The Cryosphere |
---|---|
Main Authors: | , , , , , , |
Format: | Article in Journal/Newspaper |
Language: | English |
Published: |
Copernicus Publications
2012
|
Subjects: | |
Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-6-1383-2012 https://doaj.org/article/6c54d8bca87b402bb06b16e7e3065563 |
id |
ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:6c54d8bca87b402bb06b16e7e3065563 |
---|---|
record_format |
openpolar |
spelling |
ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:6c54d8bca87b402bb06b16e7e3065563 2023-05-15T14:54:51+02:00 Constraining projections of summer Arctic sea ice F. Massonnet T. Fichefet H. Goosse C. M. Bitz G. Philippon-Berthier M. M. Holland P.-Y. Barriat 2012-11-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-6-1383-2012 https://doaj.org/article/6c54d8bca87b402bb06b16e7e3065563 EN eng Copernicus Publications http://www.the-cryosphere.net/6/1383/2012/tc-6-1383-2012.pdf https://doaj.org/toc/1994-0416 https://doaj.org/toc/1994-0424 doi:10.5194/tc-6-1383-2012 1994-0416 1994-0424 https://doaj.org/article/6c54d8bca87b402bb06b16e7e3065563 The Cryosphere, Vol 6, Iss 6, Pp 1383-1394 (2012) Environmental sciences GE1-350 Geology QE1-996.5 article 2012 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-6-1383-2012 2022-12-31T10:52:46Z We examine the recent (1979–2010) and future (2011–2100) characteristics of the summer Arctic sea ice cover as simulated by 29 Earth system and general circulation models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, phase 5 (CMIP5). As was the case with CMIP3, a large intermodel spread persists in the simulated summer sea ice losses over the 21st century for a given forcing scenario. The 1979–2010 sea ice extent, thickness distribution and volume characteristics of each CMIP5 model are discussed as potential constraints on the September sea ice extent (SSIE) projections. Our results suggest first that the future changes in SSIE with respect to the 1979–2010 model SSIE are related in a complicated manner to the initial 1979–2010 sea ice model characteristics, due to the large diversity of the CMIP5 population: at a given time, some models are in an ice-free state while others are still on the track of ice loss. However, in phase plane plots (that do not consider the time as an independent variable), we show that the transition towards ice-free conditions is actually occurring in a very similar manner for all models. We also find that the year at which SSIE drops below a certain threshold is likely to be constrained by the present-day sea ice properties. In a second step, using several adequate 1979–2010 sea ice metrics, we effectively reduce the uncertainty as to when the Arctic could become nearly ice-free in summertime, the interval [2041, 2060] being our best estimate for a high climate forcing scenario. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Sea ice The Cryosphere Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Arctic The Cryosphere 6 6 1383 1394 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
op_collection_id |
ftdoajarticles |
language |
English |
topic |
Environmental sciences GE1-350 Geology QE1-996.5 |
spellingShingle |
Environmental sciences GE1-350 Geology QE1-996.5 F. Massonnet T. Fichefet H. Goosse C. M. Bitz G. Philippon-Berthier M. M. Holland P.-Y. Barriat Constraining projections of summer Arctic sea ice |
topic_facet |
Environmental sciences GE1-350 Geology QE1-996.5 |
description |
We examine the recent (1979–2010) and future (2011–2100) characteristics of the summer Arctic sea ice cover as simulated by 29 Earth system and general circulation models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, phase 5 (CMIP5). As was the case with CMIP3, a large intermodel spread persists in the simulated summer sea ice losses over the 21st century for a given forcing scenario. The 1979–2010 sea ice extent, thickness distribution and volume characteristics of each CMIP5 model are discussed as potential constraints on the September sea ice extent (SSIE) projections. Our results suggest first that the future changes in SSIE with respect to the 1979–2010 model SSIE are related in a complicated manner to the initial 1979–2010 sea ice model characteristics, due to the large diversity of the CMIP5 population: at a given time, some models are in an ice-free state while others are still on the track of ice loss. However, in phase plane plots (that do not consider the time as an independent variable), we show that the transition towards ice-free conditions is actually occurring in a very similar manner for all models. We also find that the year at which SSIE drops below a certain threshold is likely to be constrained by the present-day sea ice properties. In a second step, using several adequate 1979–2010 sea ice metrics, we effectively reduce the uncertainty as to when the Arctic could become nearly ice-free in summertime, the interval [2041, 2060] being our best estimate for a high climate forcing scenario. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
F. Massonnet T. Fichefet H. Goosse C. M. Bitz G. Philippon-Berthier M. M. Holland P.-Y. Barriat |
author_facet |
F. Massonnet T. Fichefet H. Goosse C. M. Bitz G. Philippon-Berthier M. M. Holland P.-Y. Barriat |
author_sort |
F. Massonnet |
title |
Constraining projections of summer Arctic sea ice |
title_short |
Constraining projections of summer Arctic sea ice |
title_full |
Constraining projections of summer Arctic sea ice |
title_fullStr |
Constraining projections of summer Arctic sea ice |
title_full_unstemmed |
Constraining projections of summer Arctic sea ice |
title_sort |
constraining projections of summer arctic sea ice |
publisher |
Copernicus Publications |
publishDate |
2012 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-6-1383-2012 https://doaj.org/article/6c54d8bca87b402bb06b16e7e3065563 |
geographic |
Arctic |
geographic_facet |
Arctic |
genre |
Arctic Sea ice The Cryosphere |
genre_facet |
Arctic Sea ice The Cryosphere |
op_source |
The Cryosphere, Vol 6, Iss 6, Pp 1383-1394 (2012) |
op_relation |
http://www.the-cryosphere.net/6/1383/2012/tc-6-1383-2012.pdf https://doaj.org/toc/1994-0416 https://doaj.org/toc/1994-0424 doi:10.5194/tc-6-1383-2012 1994-0416 1994-0424 https://doaj.org/article/6c54d8bca87b402bb06b16e7e3065563 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-6-1383-2012 |
container_title |
The Cryosphere |
container_volume |
6 |
container_issue |
6 |
container_start_page |
1383 |
op_container_end_page |
1394 |
_version_ |
1766326601542270976 |