Short-Term River Flow Forecasting Framework and Its Application in Cold Climatic Regions
Catchments located in cold weather regions are highly influenced by the natural seasonality that dictates all hydrological processes. This represents a challenge in the development of river flow forecasting models, which often require complex software that use multiple explanatory variables and a la...
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:6b79f067edad4494a7bab8a2fd7f2225 2023-05-15T15:26:02+02:00 Short-Term River Flow Forecasting Framework and Its Application in Cold Climatic Regions Chiara Belvederesi John Albino Dominic Quazi K. Hassan Anil Gupta Gopal Achari 2020-10-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.3390/w12113049 https://doaj.org/article/6b79f067edad4494a7bab8a2fd7f2225 EN eng MDPI AG https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4441/12/11/3049 https://doaj.org/toc/2073-4441 doi:10.3390/w12113049 2073-4441 https://doaj.org/article/6b79f067edad4494a7bab8a2fd7f2225 Water, Vol 12, Iss 3049, p 3049 (2020) Athabasca River cold weather regions predictive hydrology simplistic environmental modelling water resources Hydraulic engineering TC1-978 Water supply for domestic and industrial purposes TD201-500 article 2020 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.3390/w12113049 2023-01-08T01:39:22Z Catchments located in cold weather regions are highly influenced by the natural seasonality that dictates all hydrological processes. This represents a challenge in the development of river flow forecasting models, which often require complex software that use multiple explanatory variables and a large amount of data to forecast such seasonality. The Athabasca River Basin (ARB) in Alberta, Canada, receives no or very little rainfall and snowmelt during the winter and an abundant rainfall–runoff and snowmelt during the spring/summer. Using the ARB as a case study, this paper proposes a novel simplistic method for short-term (i.e., 6 days) river flow forecasting in cold regions and compares existing hydrological modelling techniques to demonstrate that it is possible to achieve a good level of accuracy using simple modelling. In particular, the performance of a regression model (RM), base difference model (BDM), and the newly developed flow difference model (FDM) were evaluated and compared. The results showed that the FDM could accurately forecast river flow (E NS = 0.95) using limited data inputs and calibration parameters. Moreover, the newly proposed FDM had similar performance to artificial intelligence (AI) techniques, demonstrating the capability of simplistic methods to forecast river flow while bypassing the fundamental processes that govern the natural annual river cycle. Article in Journal/Newspaper Athabasca River Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Athabasca River Canada Water 12 11 3049 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
op_collection_id |
ftdoajarticles |
language |
English |
topic |
Athabasca River cold weather regions predictive hydrology simplistic environmental modelling water resources Hydraulic engineering TC1-978 Water supply for domestic and industrial purposes TD201-500 |
spellingShingle |
Athabasca River cold weather regions predictive hydrology simplistic environmental modelling water resources Hydraulic engineering TC1-978 Water supply for domestic and industrial purposes TD201-500 Chiara Belvederesi John Albino Dominic Quazi K. Hassan Anil Gupta Gopal Achari Short-Term River Flow Forecasting Framework and Its Application in Cold Climatic Regions |
topic_facet |
Athabasca River cold weather regions predictive hydrology simplistic environmental modelling water resources Hydraulic engineering TC1-978 Water supply for domestic and industrial purposes TD201-500 |
description |
Catchments located in cold weather regions are highly influenced by the natural seasonality that dictates all hydrological processes. This represents a challenge in the development of river flow forecasting models, which often require complex software that use multiple explanatory variables and a large amount of data to forecast such seasonality. The Athabasca River Basin (ARB) in Alberta, Canada, receives no or very little rainfall and snowmelt during the winter and an abundant rainfall–runoff and snowmelt during the spring/summer. Using the ARB as a case study, this paper proposes a novel simplistic method for short-term (i.e., 6 days) river flow forecasting in cold regions and compares existing hydrological modelling techniques to demonstrate that it is possible to achieve a good level of accuracy using simple modelling. In particular, the performance of a regression model (RM), base difference model (BDM), and the newly developed flow difference model (FDM) were evaluated and compared. The results showed that the FDM could accurately forecast river flow (E NS = 0.95) using limited data inputs and calibration parameters. Moreover, the newly proposed FDM had similar performance to artificial intelligence (AI) techniques, demonstrating the capability of simplistic methods to forecast river flow while bypassing the fundamental processes that govern the natural annual river cycle. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Chiara Belvederesi John Albino Dominic Quazi K. Hassan Anil Gupta Gopal Achari |
author_facet |
Chiara Belvederesi John Albino Dominic Quazi K. Hassan Anil Gupta Gopal Achari |
author_sort |
Chiara Belvederesi |
title |
Short-Term River Flow Forecasting Framework and Its Application in Cold Climatic Regions |
title_short |
Short-Term River Flow Forecasting Framework and Its Application in Cold Climatic Regions |
title_full |
Short-Term River Flow Forecasting Framework and Its Application in Cold Climatic Regions |
title_fullStr |
Short-Term River Flow Forecasting Framework and Its Application in Cold Climatic Regions |
title_full_unstemmed |
Short-Term River Flow Forecasting Framework and Its Application in Cold Climatic Regions |
title_sort |
short-term river flow forecasting framework and its application in cold climatic regions |
publisher |
MDPI AG |
publishDate |
2020 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.3390/w12113049 https://doaj.org/article/6b79f067edad4494a7bab8a2fd7f2225 |
geographic |
Athabasca River Canada |
geographic_facet |
Athabasca River Canada |
genre |
Athabasca River |
genre_facet |
Athabasca River |
op_source |
Water, Vol 12, Iss 3049, p 3049 (2020) |
op_relation |
https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4441/12/11/3049 https://doaj.org/toc/2073-4441 doi:10.3390/w12113049 2073-4441 https://doaj.org/article/6b79f067edad4494a7bab8a2fd7f2225 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.3390/w12113049 |
container_title |
Water |
container_volume |
12 |
container_issue |
11 |
container_start_page |
3049 |
_version_ |
1766356597168144384 |