Climate change, shifting threat points, and the management of transboundary fish stocks
We apply the concept of threat points in game theory to explore the stability of current joint management arrangements for shared transboundary fish stocks between Canada and the United States. We use three examples to explore the effects of projected impacts of climate change on the productivity an...
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Resilience Alliance
2020
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:6a210a78f83a4e0d96fbd8f128e593ad 2023-05-15T15:27:25+02:00 Climate change, shifting threat points, and the management of transboundary fish stocks U. Rashid Sumaila Juliano Palacios-Abrantes William W. L. Cheung 2020-12-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.5751/ES-11660-250440 https://doaj.org/article/6a210a78f83a4e0d96fbd8f128e593ad EN eng Resilience Alliance https://www.ecologyandsociety.org/vol25/iss4/art40/ https://doaj.org/toc/1708-3087 1708-3087 doi:10.5751/ES-11660-250440 https://doaj.org/article/6a210a78f83a4e0d96fbd8f128e593ad Ecology and Society, Vol 25, Iss 4, p 40 (2020) atlantic cod climate change joint management pacific halibut shared stocks yellowtail flounder Biology (General) QH301-705.5 Ecology QH540-549.5 article 2020 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.5751/ES-11660-250440 2022-12-31T08:07:28Z We apply the concept of threat points in game theory to explore the stability of current joint management arrangements for shared transboundary fish stocks between Canada and the United States. We use three examples to explore the effects of projected impacts of climate change on the productivity and distribution of these stocks between the exclusive economic zones of the two countries. The three stocks that we study are: Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) and yellowtail flounder (Limanda ferruginea) within the Gulf of Maine, and Pacific halibut (Hippoglossus stenolepis) in the Pacific Coast. We define a threat point as the payoffs that the fisheries in Canada and the United States take home given the current management agreement between the two countries. This is an application of John Nash's threat point, defined as the minimum payoffs that each player in a game theoretic model must receive for the solution to a cooperative game to be stable, which is usually the outcome of a noncooperative game. First, we compute the threat points, that is, the current profits that Canada and the United States derive from the three shared stocks, respectively. Next, we build an ensemble of climate-marine ecosystem and economic models and use them to determine how climate change is likely to change current profits received by each country relative to the shifts in their threat points. We find that in some cases the profits obtained by fisheries in Canada and the United States would change under climate change both in absolute and relative terms resulting in relative changes in threat points. These relative changes in threat points serve as the basis for our discussion of the stability of current transboundary management agreements between Canada and the United States for these important shared stocks in the face of climate change. Article in Journal/Newspaper atlantic cod Gadus morhua Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Canada Pacific Ecology and Society 25 4 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
op_collection_id |
ftdoajarticles |
language |
English |
topic |
atlantic cod climate change joint management pacific halibut shared stocks yellowtail flounder Biology (General) QH301-705.5 Ecology QH540-549.5 |
spellingShingle |
atlantic cod climate change joint management pacific halibut shared stocks yellowtail flounder Biology (General) QH301-705.5 Ecology QH540-549.5 U. Rashid Sumaila Juliano Palacios-Abrantes William W. L. Cheung Climate change, shifting threat points, and the management of transboundary fish stocks |
topic_facet |
atlantic cod climate change joint management pacific halibut shared stocks yellowtail flounder Biology (General) QH301-705.5 Ecology QH540-549.5 |
description |
We apply the concept of threat points in game theory to explore the stability of current joint management arrangements for shared transboundary fish stocks between Canada and the United States. We use three examples to explore the effects of projected impacts of climate change on the productivity and distribution of these stocks between the exclusive economic zones of the two countries. The three stocks that we study are: Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) and yellowtail flounder (Limanda ferruginea) within the Gulf of Maine, and Pacific halibut (Hippoglossus stenolepis) in the Pacific Coast. We define a threat point as the payoffs that the fisheries in Canada and the United States take home given the current management agreement between the two countries. This is an application of John Nash's threat point, defined as the minimum payoffs that each player in a game theoretic model must receive for the solution to a cooperative game to be stable, which is usually the outcome of a noncooperative game. First, we compute the threat points, that is, the current profits that Canada and the United States derive from the three shared stocks, respectively. Next, we build an ensemble of climate-marine ecosystem and economic models and use them to determine how climate change is likely to change current profits received by each country relative to the shifts in their threat points. We find that in some cases the profits obtained by fisheries in Canada and the United States would change under climate change both in absolute and relative terms resulting in relative changes in threat points. These relative changes in threat points serve as the basis for our discussion of the stability of current transboundary management agreements between Canada and the United States for these important shared stocks in the face of climate change. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
U. Rashid Sumaila Juliano Palacios-Abrantes William W. L. Cheung |
author_facet |
U. Rashid Sumaila Juliano Palacios-Abrantes William W. L. Cheung |
author_sort |
U. Rashid Sumaila |
title |
Climate change, shifting threat points, and the management of transboundary fish stocks |
title_short |
Climate change, shifting threat points, and the management of transboundary fish stocks |
title_full |
Climate change, shifting threat points, and the management of transboundary fish stocks |
title_fullStr |
Climate change, shifting threat points, and the management of transboundary fish stocks |
title_full_unstemmed |
Climate change, shifting threat points, and the management of transboundary fish stocks |
title_sort |
climate change, shifting threat points, and the management of transboundary fish stocks |
publisher |
Resilience Alliance |
publishDate |
2020 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.5751/ES-11660-250440 https://doaj.org/article/6a210a78f83a4e0d96fbd8f128e593ad |
geographic |
Canada Pacific |
geographic_facet |
Canada Pacific |
genre |
atlantic cod Gadus morhua |
genre_facet |
atlantic cod Gadus morhua |
op_source |
Ecology and Society, Vol 25, Iss 4, p 40 (2020) |
op_relation |
https://www.ecologyandsociety.org/vol25/iss4/art40/ https://doaj.org/toc/1708-3087 1708-3087 doi:10.5751/ES-11660-250440 https://doaj.org/article/6a210a78f83a4e0d96fbd8f128e593ad |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5751/ES-11660-250440 |
container_title |
Ecology and Society |
container_volume |
25 |
container_issue |
4 |
_version_ |
1766357854203150336 |