The Arctic and Antarctic Sea-Ice Area Index Records versus Measured and Modeled Temperature Data

• Published in: Advances in Meteorology
• Main Authors: Nicola Scafetta, Adriano Mazzarella
• Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
• Language: English
• Published: Wiley 2015
• Subjects: Meteorology. Climatology; QC851-999; Antarctic; Arctic; The Antarctic; Antarc*; Climate change; National Snow and Ice Data Center; Sea ice
• Online Access: https://doi.org/10.1155/2015/481834; https://doaj.org/article/69ccef6110b14eb2955bc90515eb4118

Here we study the Arctic and Antarctic sea-ice area records provided by the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC). These records reveal an opposite climatic behavior: since 1978 the Arctic sea-ice area index decreased, that is, the region has warmed, while the Antarctic sea-ice area index increased, that is, the region has cooled. During the last 7 years the Arctic sea-ice area has stabilized while the Antarctic sea-ice area has increased at a rate significantly higher than during the previous decades; that is, the sea-ice area of both regions has experienced a positive acceleration. This result is quite robust because it is confirmed by alternative temperature climate indices of the same regions. We also found that a significant 4-5-year natural oscillation characterizes the climate of these sea-ice polar areas. On the contrary, we found that the CMIP5 general circulation models have predicted significant warming in both polar sea regions and failed to reproduce the strong 4-5-year oscillation. Because the CMIP5 GCM simulations are inconsistent with the observations, we suggest that important natural mechanisms of climate change are missing in the models.