Statistical diagnostic and correction of a chemistry-transport model for the prediction of total column ozone
In this paper, we introduce a statistical method for examining and adjusting chemical-transport models. We illustrate the findings with total column ozone predictions, based on the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign 2-D (UIUC 2-D) chemical-transport model of the global atmosphere. We propose...
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:67bab7202e0d4abbb42b7dc3356fd275 2023-05-15T13:33:10+02:00 Statistical diagnostic and correction of a chemistry-transport model for the prediction of total column ozone S. Guillas G. C. Tiao D. J. Wuebbles A. Zubrow 2006-01-01T00:00:00Z https://doaj.org/article/67bab7202e0d4abbb42b7dc3356fd275 EN eng Copernicus Publications http://www.atmos-chem-phys.net/6/525/2006/acp-6-525-2006.pdf https://doaj.org/toc/1680-7316 https://doaj.org/toc/1680-7324 1680-7316 1680-7324 https://doaj.org/article/67bab7202e0d4abbb42b7dc3356fd275 Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, Vol 6, Iss 2, Pp 525-537 (2006) Physics QC1-999 Chemistry QD1-999 article 2006 ftdoajarticles 2022-12-31T02:16:26Z In this paper, we introduce a statistical method for examining and adjusting chemical-transport models. We illustrate the findings with total column ozone predictions, based on the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign 2-D (UIUC 2-D) chemical-transport model of the global atmosphere. We propose a general diagnostic procedure for the model outputs in total ozone over the latitudes ranging from 60° South to 60° North to see if the model captures some typical patterns in the data. The method proceeds in two steps to avoid possible collinearity issues. First, we regress the measurements given by a cohesive data set from the SBUV(/2) satellite system on the model outputs with an autoregressive noise component. Second, we regress the residuals of this first regression on the solar flux, the annual cycle, the Antarctic or Arctic Oscillation, and the Quasi Biennial Oscillation. If the coefficients from this second regression are statistically significant, then they mean that the model did not simulate properly the pattern associated with these factors. Systematic anomalies of the model are identified using data from 1979 to 1995, and statistically corrected afterwards. The 1996–2003 validation sample confirms that the combined approach yields better predictions than the direct UIUC 2-D outputs. Article in Journal/Newspaper Antarc* Antarctic Arctic Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Arctic Antarctic The Antarctic |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
op_collection_id |
ftdoajarticles |
language |
English |
topic |
Physics QC1-999 Chemistry QD1-999 |
spellingShingle |
Physics QC1-999 Chemistry QD1-999 S. Guillas G. C. Tiao D. J. Wuebbles A. Zubrow Statistical diagnostic and correction of a chemistry-transport model for the prediction of total column ozone |
topic_facet |
Physics QC1-999 Chemistry QD1-999 |
description |
In this paper, we introduce a statistical method for examining and adjusting chemical-transport models. We illustrate the findings with total column ozone predictions, based on the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign 2-D (UIUC 2-D) chemical-transport model of the global atmosphere. We propose a general diagnostic procedure for the model outputs in total ozone over the latitudes ranging from 60° South to 60° North to see if the model captures some typical patterns in the data. The method proceeds in two steps to avoid possible collinearity issues. First, we regress the measurements given by a cohesive data set from the SBUV(/2) satellite system on the model outputs with an autoregressive noise component. Second, we regress the residuals of this first regression on the solar flux, the annual cycle, the Antarctic or Arctic Oscillation, and the Quasi Biennial Oscillation. If the coefficients from this second regression are statistically significant, then they mean that the model did not simulate properly the pattern associated with these factors. Systematic anomalies of the model are identified using data from 1979 to 1995, and statistically corrected afterwards. The 1996–2003 validation sample confirms that the combined approach yields better predictions than the direct UIUC 2-D outputs. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
S. Guillas G. C. Tiao D. J. Wuebbles A. Zubrow |
author_facet |
S. Guillas G. C. Tiao D. J. Wuebbles A. Zubrow |
author_sort |
S. Guillas |
title |
Statistical diagnostic and correction of a chemistry-transport model for the prediction of total column ozone |
title_short |
Statistical diagnostic and correction of a chemistry-transport model for the prediction of total column ozone |
title_full |
Statistical diagnostic and correction of a chemistry-transport model for the prediction of total column ozone |
title_fullStr |
Statistical diagnostic and correction of a chemistry-transport model for the prediction of total column ozone |
title_full_unstemmed |
Statistical diagnostic and correction of a chemistry-transport model for the prediction of total column ozone |
title_sort |
statistical diagnostic and correction of a chemistry-transport model for the prediction of total column ozone |
publisher |
Copernicus Publications |
publishDate |
2006 |
url |
https://doaj.org/article/67bab7202e0d4abbb42b7dc3356fd275 |
geographic |
Arctic Antarctic The Antarctic |
geographic_facet |
Arctic Antarctic The Antarctic |
genre |
Antarc* Antarctic Arctic |
genre_facet |
Antarc* Antarctic Arctic |
op_source |
Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, Vol 6, Iss 2, Pp 525-537 (2006) |
op_relation |
http://www.atmos-chem-phys.net/6/525/2006/acp-6-525-2006.pdf https://doaj.org/toc/1680-7316 https://doaj.org/toc/1680-7324 1680-7316 1680-7324 https://doaj.org/article/67bab7202e0d4abbb42b7dc3356fd275 |
_version_ |
1766039200357941248 |