Potential Arctic tundra vegetation shifts in response to changing temperature, precipitation and permafrost thaw
Over the past decades, vegetation and climate have changed significantly in the Arctic. Deciduous shrub cover is often assumed to expand in tundra landscapes, but more frequent abrupt permafrost thaw resulting in formation of thaw ponds could lead to vegetation shifts towards graminoid-dominated wet...
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:679c81f12b87404da79f8ba6a41925fe 2023-05-15T15:02:12+02:00 Potential Arctic tundra vegetation shifts in response to changing temperature, precipitation and permafrost thaw H.-J. van der Kolk M. M. P. D. Heijmans J. van Huissteden J. W. M. Pullens F. Berendse 2016-11-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-6229-2016 https://doaj.org/article/679c81f12b87404da79f8ba6a41925fe EN eng Copernicus Publications https://www.biogeosciences.net/13/6229/2016/bg-13-6229-2016.pdf https://doaj.org/toc/1726-4170 https://doaj.org/toc/1726-4189 doi:10.5194/bg-13-6229-2016 1726-4170 1726-4189 https://doaj.org/article/679c81f12b87404da79f8ba6a41925fe Biogeosciences, Vol 13, Pp 6229-6245 (2016) Ecology QH540-549.5 Life QH501-531 Geology QE1-996.5 article 2016 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-6229-2016 2022-12-30T21:47:17Z Over the past decades, vegetation and climate have changed significantly in the Arctic. Deciduous shrub cover is often assumed to expand in tundra landscapes, but more frequent abrupt permafrost thaw resulting in formation of thaw ponds could lead to vegetation shifts towards graminoid-dominated wetland. Which factors drive vegetation changes in the tundra ecosystem are still not sufficiently clear. In this study, the dynamic tundra vegetation model, NUCOM-tundra (NUtrient and COMpetition), was used to evaluate the consequences of climate change scenarios of warming and increasing precipitation for future tundra vegetation change. The model includes three plant functional types (moss, graminoids and shrubs), carbon and nitrogen cycling, water and permafrost dynamics and a simple thaw pond module. Climate scenario simulations were performed for 16 combinations of temperature and precipitation increases in five vegetation types representing a gradient from dry shrub-dominated to moist mixed and wet graminoid-dominated sites. Vegetation composition dynamics in currently mixed vegetation sites were dependent on both temperature and precipitation changes, with warming favouring shrub dominance and increased precipitation favouring graminoid abundance. Climate change simulations based on greenhouse gas emission scenarios in which temperature and precipitation increases were combined showed increases in biomass of both graminoids and shrubs, with graminoids increasing in abundance. The simulations suggest that shrub growth can be limited by very wet soil conditions and low nutrient supply, whereas graminoids have the advantage of being able to grow in a wide range of soil moisture conditions and have access to nutrients in deeper soil layers. Abrupt permafrost thaw initiating thaw pond formation led to complete domination of graminoids. However, due to increased drainage, shrubs could profit from such changes in adjacent areas. Both climate and thaw pond formation simulations suggest that a wetter tundra can be ... Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Climate change permafrost Tundra Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Arctic Biogeosciences 13 22 6229 6245 |
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Open Polar |
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Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
op_collection_id |
ftdoajarticles |
language |
English |
topic |
Ecology QH540-549.5 Life QH501-531 Geology QE1-996.5 |
spellingShingle |
Ecology QH540-549.5 Life QH501-531 Geology QE1-996.5 H.-J. van der Kolk M. M. P. D. Heijmans J. van Huissteden J. W. M. Pullens F. Berendse Potential Arctic tundra vegetation shifts in response to changing temperature, precipitation and permafrost thaw |
topic_facet |
Ecology QH540-549.5 Life QH501-531 Geology QE1-996.5 |
description |
Over the past decades, vegetation and climate have changed significantly in the Arctic. Deciduous shrub cover is often assumed to expand in tundra landscapes, but more frequent abrupt permafrost thaw resulting in formation of thaw ponds could lead to vegetation shifts towards graminoid-dominated wetland. Which factors drive vegetation changes in the tundra ecosystem are still not sufficiently clear. In this study, the dynamic tundra vegetation model, NUCOM-tundra (NUtrient and COMpetition), was used to evaluate the consequences of climate change scenarios of warming and increasing precipitation for future tundra vegetation change. The model includes three plant functional types (moss, graminoids and shrubs), carbon and nitrogen cycling, water and permafrost dynamics and a simple thaw pond module. Climate scenario simulations were performed for 16 combinations of temperature and precipitation increases in five vegetation types representing a gradient from dry shrub-dominated to moist mixed and wet graminoid-dominated sites. Vegetation composition dynamics in currently mixed vegetation sites were dependent on both temperature and precipitation changes, with warming favouring shrub dominance and increased precipitation favouring graminoid abundance. Climate change simulations based on greenhouse gas emission scenarios in which temperature and precipitation increases were combined showed increases in biomass of both graminoids and shrubs, with graminoids increasing in abundance. The simulations suggest that shrub growth can be limited by very wet soil conditions and low nutrient supply, whereas graminoids have the advantage of being able to grow in a wide range of soil moisture conditions and have access to nutrients in deeper soil layers. Abrupt permafrost thaw initiating thaw pond formation led to complete domination of graminoids. However, due to increased drainage, shrubs could profit from such changes in adjacent areas. Both climate and thaw pond formation simulations suggest that a wetter tundra can be ... |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
H.-J. van der Kolk M. M. P. D. Heijmans J. van Huissteden J. W. M. Pullens F. Berendse |
author_facet |
H.-J. van der Kolk M. M. P. D. Heijmans J. van Huissteden J. W. M. Pullens F. Berendse |
author_sort |
H.-J. van der Kolk |
title |
Potential Arctic tundra vegetation shifts in response to changing temperature, precipitation and permafrost thaw |
title_short |
Potential Arctic tundra vegetation shifts in response to changing temperature, precipitation and permafrost thaw |
title_full |
Potential Arctic tundra vegetation shifts in response to changing temperature, precipitation and permafrost thaw |
title_fullStr |
Potential Arctic tundra vegetation shifts in response to changing temperature, precipitation and permafrost thaw |
title_full_unstemmed |
Potential Arctic tundra vegetation shifts in response to changing temperature, precipitation and permafrost thaw |
title_sort |
potential arctic tundra vegetation shifts in response to changing temperature, precipitation and permafrost thaw |
publisher |
Copernicus Publications |
publishDate |
2016 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-6229-2016 https://doaj.org/article/679c81f12b87404da79f8ba6a41925fe |
geographic |
Arctic |
geographic_facet |
Arctic |
genre |
Arctic Climate change permafrost Tundra |
genre_facet |
Arctic Climate change permafrost Tundra |
op_source |
Biogeosciences, Vol 13, Pp 6229-6245 (2016) |
op_relation |
https://www.biogeosciences.net/13/6229/2016/bg-13-6229-2016.pdf https://doaj.org/toc/1726-4170 https://doaj.org/toc/1726-4189 doi:10.5194/bg-13-6229-2016 1726-4170 1726-4189 https://doaj.org/article/679c81f12b87404da79f8ba6a41925fe |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-6229-2016 |
container_title |
Biogeosciences |
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13 |
container_issue |
22 |
container_start_page |
6229 |
op_container_end_page |
6245 |
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1766334174956879872 |