Storm track response to uniform global warming downstream of an idealized sea surface temperature front
The future evolution of storm tracks, their intensity, shape, and location, is an important driver of regional precipitation changes, cyclone-associated weather extremes, and regional climate patterns. For the North Atlantic storm track, Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) data indicate a t...
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:6750e2657cd74d1fb1cfdef9f313bc4a 2023-05-15T17:36:15+02:00 Storm track response to uniform global warming downstream of an idealized sea surface temperature front S. Schemm L. Papritz G. Rivière 2022-05-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-601-2022 https://doaj.org/article/6750e2657cd74d1fb1cfdef9f313bc4a EN eng Copernicus Publications https://wcd.copernicus.org/articles/3/601/2022/wcd-3-601-2022.pdf https://doaj.org/toc/2698-4016 doi:10.5194/wcd-3-601-2022 2698-4016 https://doaj.org/article/6750e2657cd74d1fb1cfdef9f313bc4a Weather and Climate Dynamics, Vol 3, Pp 601-623 (2022) Meteorology. Climatology QC851-999 article 2022 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-601-2022 2022-12-30T23:31:04Z The future evolution of storm tracks, their intensity, shape, and location, is an important driver of regional precipitation changes, cyclone-associated weather extremes, and regional climate patterns. For the North Atlantic storm track, Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) data indicate a tripole pattern of change under the RCP8.5 scenario. In this study, the tripole pattern is qualitatively reproduced by simulating the change of a storm track generated downstream of an idealized sea surface temperature (SST) front under uniform warming on an aquaplanet. The simulated tripole pattern consists of reduced eddy kinetic energy (EKE) upstream and equatorward of the SST front, extended and poleward shifted enhanced EKE downstream of the SST front, and a regionally reduced EKE increase at polar latitudes. In the absence of the idealized SST front, in contrast, the storm track exhibits a poleward shift but no tripole pattern. A detailed analysis of the EKE and eddy available potential energy (EAPE) sources and sinks reveals that the changes are locally driven by changes in baroclinic conversion rather than diabatic processes. However, globally the change in baroclinic conversion averages to zero; thus the observed global EAPE increase results from diabatic generation. In particular, resolved-scale condensation plus parameterized cloud physics dominate the global EAPE increase followed by longwave radiation. Amplified stationary waves affect EKE and EAPE advection, which contributes to the local EKE and EAPE minimum at polar latitudes. Feature-based tracking provides further insight into cyclone life cycle changes downstream of the SST front. Moderately deepening cyclones deepen less in a warmer climate, while strongly deepening cyclones deepen more. Similarly, the average cyclone becomes less intense in a warmer climate, while the extremely intense cyclones become more intense. Both results hold true for cyclones with genesis in the vicinity of the SST front and elsewhere. The mean cyclone lifetime decreases, ... Article in Journal/Newspaper North Atlantic Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Weather and Climate Dynamics 3 2 601 623 |
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Meteorology. Climatology QC851-999 |
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Meteorology. Climatology QC851-999 S. Schemm L. Papritz G. Rivière Storm track response to uniform global warming downstream of an idealized sea surface temperature front |
topic_facet |
Meteorology. Climatology QC851-999 |
description |
The future evolution of storm tracks, their intensity, shape, and location, is an important driver of regional precipitation changes, cyclone-associated weather extremes, and regional climate patterns. For the North Atlantic storm track, Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) data indicate a tripole pattern of change under the RCP8.5 scenario. In this study, the tripole pattern is qualitatively reproduced by simulating the change of a storm track generated downstream of an idealized sea surface temperature (SST) front under uniform warming on an aquaplanet. The simulated tripole pattern consists of reduced eddy kinetic energy (EKE) upstream and equatorward of the SST front, extended and poleward shifted enhanced EKE downstream of the SST front, and a regionally reduced EKE increase at polar latitudes. In the absence of the idealized SST front, in contrast, the storm track exhibits a poleward shift but no tripole pattern. A detailed analysis of the EKE and eddy available potential energy (EAPE) sources and sinks reveals that the changes are locally driven by changes in baroclinic conversion rather than diabatic processes. However, globally the change in baroclinic conversion averages to zero; thus the observed global EAPE increase results from diabatic generation. In particular, resolved-scale condensation plus parameterized cloud physics dominate the global EAPE increase followed by longwave radiation. Amplified stationary waves affect EKE and EAPE advection, which contributes to the local EKE and EAPE minimum at polar latitudes. Feature-based tracking provides further insight into cyclone life cycle changes downstream of the SST front. Moderately deepening cyclones deepen less in a warmer climate, while strongly deepening cyclones deepen more. Similarly, the average cyclone becomes less intense in a warmer climate, while the extremely intense cyclones become more intense. Both results hold true for cyclones with genesis in the vicinity of the SST front and elsewhere. The mean cyclone lifetime decreases, ... |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
S. Schemm L. Papritz G. Rivière |
author_facet |
S. Schemm L. Papritz G. Rivière |
author_sort |
S. Schemm |
title |
Storm track response to uniform global warming downstream of an idealized sea surface temperature front |
title_short |
Storm track response to uniform global warming downstream of an idealized sea surface temperature front |
title_full |
Storm track response to uniform global warming downstream of an idealized sea surface temperature front |
title_fullStr |
Storm track response to uniform global warming downstream of an idealized sea surface temperature front |
title_full_unstemmed |
Storm track response to uniform global warming downstream of an idealized sea surface temperature front |
title_sort |
storm track response to uniform global warming downstream of an idealized sea surface temperature front |
publisher |
Copernicus Publications |
publishDate |
2022 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-601-2022 https://doaj.org/article/6750e2657cd74d1fb1cfdef9f313bc4a |
genre |
North Atlantic |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic |
op_source |
Weather and Climate Dynamics, Vol 3, Pp 601-623 (2022) |
op_relation |
https://wcd.copernicus.org/articles/3/601/2022/wcd-3-601-2022.pdf https://doaj.org/toc/2698-4016 doi:10.5194/wcd-3-601-2022 2698-4016 https://doaj.org/article/6750e2657cd74d1fb1cfdef9f313bc4a |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-601-2022 |
container_title |
Weather and Climate Dynamics |
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3 |
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2 |
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601 |
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623 |
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