Seasonal prediction of winter extreme precipitation over Canada by support vector regression
For forecasting the maximum 5-day accumulated precipitation over the winter season at lead times of 3, 6, 9 and 12 months over Canada from 1950 to 2007, two nonlinear and two linear regression models were used, where the models were support vector regression (SVR) (nonlinear and linear versions), no...
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:6731e37a794e4a0c8a214a5c62c410d8 2023-05-15T14:58:38+02:00 Seasonal prediction of winter extreme precipitation over Canada by support vector regression Z. Zeng W. W. Hsieh A. Shabbar W. R. Burrows 2011-01-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-15-65-2011 https://doaj.org/article/6731e37a794e4a0c8a214a5c62c410d8 EN eng Copernicus Publications http://www.hydrol-earth-syst-sci.net/15/65/2011/hess-15-65-2011.pdf https://doaj.org/toc/1027-5606 https://doaj.org/toc/1607-7938 doi:10.5194/hess-15-65-2011 1027-5606 1607-7938 https://doaj.org/article/6731e37a794e4a0c8a214a5c62c410d8 Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, Vol 15, Iss 1, Pp 65-74 (2011) Technology T Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering TD1-1066 Geography. Anthropology. Recreation G Environmental sciences GE1-350 article 2011 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-15-65-2011 2022-12-31T02:55:39Z For forecasting the maximum 5-day accumulated precipitation over the winter season at lead times of 3, 6, 9 and 12 months over Canada from 1950 to 2007, two nonlinear and two linear regression models were used, where the models were support vector regression (SVR) (nonlinear and linear versions), nonlinear Bayesian neural network (BNN) and multiple linear regression (MLR). The 118 stations were grouped into six geographic regions by K -means clustering. For each region, the leading principal components of the winter maximum 5-d accumulated precipitation anomalies were the predictands. Potential predictors included quasi-global sea surface temperature anomalies and 500 hPa geopotential height anomalies over the Northern Hemisphere, as well as six climate indices (the Niño-3.4 region sea surface temperature, the North Atlantic Oscillation, the Pacific-North American teleconnection, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, the Scandinavia pattern, and the East Atlantic pattern). The results showed that in general the two robust SVR models tended to have better forecast skills than the two non-robust models (MLR and BNN), and the nonlinear SVR model tended to forecast slightly better than the linear SVR model. Among the six regions, the Prairies region displayed the highest forecast skills, and the Arctic region the second highest. The strongest nonlinearity was manifested over the Prairies and the weakest nonlinearity over the Arctic. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Arctic Canada Pacific Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 15 1 65 74 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
op_collection_id |
ftdoajarticles |
language |
English |
topic |
Technology T Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering TD1-1066 Geography. Anthropology. Recreation G Environmental sciences GE1-350 |
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Technology T Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering TD1-1066 Geography. Anthropology. Recreation G Environmental sciences GE1-350 Z. Zeng W. W. Hsieh A. Shabbar W. R. Burrows Seasonal prediction of winter extreme precipitation over Canada by support vector regression |
topic_facet |
Technology T Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering TD1-1066 Geography. Anthropology. Recreation G Environmental sciences GE1-350 |
description |
For forecasting the maximum 5-day accumulated precipitation over the winter season at lead times of 3, 6, 9 and 12 months over Canada from 1950 to 2007, two nonlinear and two linear regression models were used, where the models were support vector regression (SVR) (nonlinear and linear versions), nonlinear Bayesian neural network (BNN) and multiple linear regression (MLR). The 118 stations were grouped into six geographic regions by K -means clustering. For each region, the leading principal components of the winter maximum 5-d accumulated precipitation anomalies were the predictands. Potential predictors included quasi-global sea surface temperature anomalies and 500 hPa geopotential height anomalies over the Northern Hemisphere, as well as six climate indices (the Niño-3.4 region sea surface temperature, the North Atlantic Oscillation, the Pacific-North American teleconnection, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, the Scandinavia pattern, and the East Atlantic pattern). The results showed that in general the two robust SVR models tended to have better forecast skills than the two non-robust models (MLR and BNN), and the nonlinear SVR model tended to forecast slightly better than the linear SVR model. Among the six regions, the Prairies region displayed the highest forecast skills, and the Arctic region the second highest. The strongest nonlinearity was manifested over the Prairies and the weakest nonlinearity over the Arctic. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Z. Zeng W. W. Hsieh A. Shabbar W. R. Burrows |
author_facet |
Z. Zeng W. W. Hsieh A. Shabbar W. R. Burrows |
author_sort |
Z. Zeng |
title |
Seasonal prediction of winter extreme precipitation over Canada by support vector regression |
title_short |
Seasonal prediction of winter extreme precipitation over Canada by support vector regression |
title_full |
Seasonal prediction of winter extreme precipitation over Canada by support vector regression |
title_fullStr |
Seasonal prediction of winter extreme precipitation over Canada by support vector regression |
title_full_unstemmed |
Seasonal prediction of winter extreme precipitation over Canada by support vector regression |
title_sort |
seasonal prediction of winter extreme precipitation over canada by support vector regression |
publisher |
Copernicus Publications |
publishDate |
2011 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-15-65-2011 https://doaj.org/article/6731e37a794e4a0c8a214a5c62c410d8 |
geographic |
Arctic Canada Pacific |
geographic_facet |
Arctic Canada Pacific |
genre |
Arctic North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
genre_facet |
Arctic North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
op_source |
Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, Vol 15, Iss 1, Pp 65-74 (2011) |
op_relation |
http://www.hydrol-earth-syst-sci.net/15/65/2011/hess-15-65-2011.pdf https://doaj.org/toc/1027-5606 https://doaj.org/toc/1607-7938 doi:10.5194/hess-15-65-2011 1027-5606 1607-7938 https://doaj.org/article/6731e37a794e4a0c8a214a5c62c410d8 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-15-65-2011 |
container_title |
Hydrology and Earth System Sciences |
container_volume |
15 |
container_issue |
1 |
container_start_page |
65 |
op_container_end_page |
74 |
_version_ |
1766330759822442496 |