Lockdown as an Intervention Measure to Mitigate the Spread of COVID-19: a modeling study
Abstract INTRODUCTION: This work aims to develop a biomathematical transmission model of COVID-19, in the State of Sergipe, Brazil, to estimate the distribution of cases over time and project the impact on the spread of the epidemic outbreak due to interventions and control measures over the local p...
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:66eee30074bb4a0e9e08a8b49c319c02 2023-05-15T15:10:37+02:00 Lockdown as an Intervention Measure to Mitigate the Spread of COVID-19: a modeling study Aédson Nascimento Góis Estevão Esmi Laureano David da Silva Santos Daniel Eduardo Sánchez Luiz Fernando Souza Rita de Cássia Almeida Vieira Jussiely Cunha Oliveira Eduesley Santana-Santos 2020-10-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.1590/0037-8682-0417-2020 https://doaj.org/article/66eee30074bb4a0e9e08a8b49c319c02 EN eng Sociedade Brasileira de Medicina Tropical (SBMT) http://www.scielo.br/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S0037-86822020000100368&tlng=en https://doaj.org/toc/1678-9849 1678-9849 doi:10.1590/0037-8682-0417-2020 https://doaj.org/article/66eee30074bb4a0e9e08a8b49c319c02 Revista da Sociedade Brasileira de Medicina Tropical, Vol 53 (2020) COVID-19 Coronavirus infection Social isolation Epidemiology Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine RC955-962 article 2020 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.1590/0037-8682-0417-2020 2022-12-31T02:52:37Z Abstract INTRODUCTION: This work aims to develop a biomathematical transmission model of COVID-19, in the State of Sergipe, Brazil, to estimate the distribution of cases over time and project the impact on the spread of the epidemic outbreak due to interventions and control measures over the local population. METHODS: This is an epidemiological mathematical modeling study conducted to analyze the dynamics of the accumulated cases of COVID-19, which used a logistic growth model that adds a term of withdrawal of individuals as a control measure. Three possible COVID-19 propagation scenarios were simulated based on three different rates of withdrawal of individuals. They were adjusted with real data of the infected and measures of control over the population. RESULTS: The lockdown would be the best scenario, with a lower incidence of infected people, when compared to the other measures. The number of infected people would grow slowly over the months, and the number of symptomatic individuals in this scenario would be 40,265 cases. We noticed that the State of Sergipe is still in the initial stage of the disease in the scenarios. It was possible to observe that the peak of cases and the equilibrium, in the current situation of social isolation, will occur when reaching the new support capacity, at the end of August in approximately 1,171,353 infected individuals. CONCLUSIONS: We established that lockdown is the intervention with the highest ability to mitigate the spread of the virus among the population. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Arctic Revista da Sociedade Brasileira de Medicina Tropical 53 |
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Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
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ftdoajarticles |
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English |
topic |
COVID-19 Coronavirus infection Social isolation Epidemiology Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine RC955-962 |
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COVID-19 Coronavirus infection Social isolation Epidemiology Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine RC955-962 Aédson Nascimento Góis Estevão Esmi Laureano David da Silva Santos Daniel Eduardo Sánchez Luiz Fernando Souza Rita de Cássia Almeida Vieira Jussiely Cunha Oliveira Eduesley Santana-Santos Lockdown as an Intervention Measure to Mitigate the Spread of COVID-19: a modeling study |
topic_facet |
COVID-19 Coronavirus infection Social isolation Epidemiology Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine RC955-962 |
description |
Abstract INTRODUCTION: This work aims to develop a biomathematical transmission model of COVID-19, in the State of Sergipe, Brazil, to estimate the distribution of cases over time and project the impact on the spread of the epidemic outbreak due to interventions and control measures over the local population. METHODS: This is an epidemiological mathematical modeling study conducted to analyze the dynamics of the accumulated cases of COVID-19, which used a logistic growth model that adds a term of withdrawal of individuals as a control measure. Three possible COVID-19 propagation scenarios were simulated based on three different rates of withdrawal of individuals. They were adjusted with real data of the infected and measures of control over the population. RESULTS: The lockdown would be the best scenario, with a lower incidence of infected people, when compared to the other measures. The number of infected people would grow slowly over the months, and the number of symptomatic individuals in this scenario would be 40,265 cases. We noticed that the State of Sergipe is still in the initial stage of the disease in the scenarios. It was possible to observe that the peak of cases and the equilibrium, in the current situation of social isolation, will occur when reaching the new support capacity, at the end of August in approximately 1,171,353 infected individuals. CONCLUSIONS: We established that lockdown is the intervention with the highest ability to mitigate the spread of the virus among the population. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Aédson Nascimento Góis Estevão Esmi Laureano David da Silva Santos Daniel Eduardo Sánchez Luiz Fernando Souza Rita de Cássia Almeida Vieira Jussiely Cunha Oliveira Eduesley Santana-Santos |
author_facet |
Aédson Nascimento Góis Estevão Esmi Laureano David da Silva Santos Daniel Eduardo Sánchez Luiz Fernando Souza Rita de Cássia Almeida Vieira Jussiely Cunha Oliveira Eduesley Santana-Santos |
author_sort |
Aédson Nascimento Góis |
title |
Lockdown as an Intervention Measure to Mitigate the Spread of COVID-19: a modeling study |
title_short |
Lockdown as an Intervention Measure to Mitigate the Spread of COVID-19: a modeling study |
title_full |
Lockdown as an Intervention Measure to Mitigate the Spread of COVID-19: a modeling study |
title_fullStr |
Lockdown as an Intervention Measure to Mitigate the Spread of COVID-19: a modeling study |
title_full_unstemmed |
Lockdown as an Intervention Measure to Mitigate the Spread of COVID-19: a modeling study |
title_sort |
lockdown as an intervention measure to mitigate the spread of covid-19: a modeling study |
publisher |
Sociedade Brasileira de Medicina Tropical (SBMT) |
publishDate |
2020 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.1590/0037-8682-0417-2020 https://doaj.org/article/66eee30074bb4a0e9e08a8b49c319c02 |
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Arctic |
geographic_facet |
Arctic |
genre |
Arctic |
genre_facet |
Arctic |
op_source |
Revista da Sociedade Brasileira de Medicina Tropical, Vol 53 (2020) |
op_relation |
http://www.scielo.br/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S0037-86822020000100368&tlng=en https://doaj.org/toc/1678-9849 1678-9849 doi:10.1590/0037-8682-0417-2020 https://doaj.org/article/66eee30074bb4a0e9e08a8b49c319c02 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1590/0037-8682-0417-2020 |
container_title |
Revista da Sociedade Brasileira de Medicina Tropical |
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53 |
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