Effects of Variability in Ship Traffic and Whale Distributions on the Risk of Ships Striking Whales
Assessments of ship-strike risk for large whales typically use a single year of ship traffic data and averaged predictions of species distributions. Consequently, they do not account for variability in ship traffic or species distributions. Variability could reduce the effectiveness of static manage...
Published in: | Frontiers in Marine Science |
---|---|
Main Authors: | , , |
Format: | Article in Journal/Newspaper |
Language: | English |
Published: |
Frontiers Media S.A.
2020
|
Subjects: | |
Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2019.00793 https://doaj.org/article/662f407a2b5d4ed1b67243e468e51a42 |
id |
ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:662f407a2b5d4ed1b67243e468e51a42 |
---|---|
record_format |
openpolar |
spelling |
ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:662f407a2b5d4ed1b67243e468e51a42 2023-05-15T15:45:12+02:00 Effects of Variability in Ship Traffic and Whale Distributions on the Risk of Ships Striking Whales Jessica V. Redfern Elizabeth A. Becker Thomas J. Moore 2020-02-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2019.00793 https://doaj.org/article/662f407a2b5d4ed1b67243e468e51a42 EN eng Frontiers Media S.A. https://www.frontiersin.org/article/10.3389/fmars.2019.00793/full https://doaj.org/toc/2296-7745 2296-7745 doi:10.3389/fmars.2019.00793 https://doaj.org/article/662f407a2b5d4ed1b67243e468e51a42 Frontiers in Marine Science, Vol 6 (2020) species distribution modeling interannual variability in species distributions commercial shipping variability in ship traffic spatially explicit risk assessment ship-strike risk Science Q General. Including nature conservation geographical distribution QH1-199.5 article 2020 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2019.00793 2022-12-31T13:20:28Z Assessments of ship-strike risk for large whales typically use a single year of ship traffic data and averaged predictions of species distributions. Consequently, they do not account for variability in ship traffic or species distributions. Variability could reduce the effectiveness of static management measures designed to mitigate ship-strike risk. We explore the consequences of interannual variability on ship-strike risk using multiple years of both ship traffic data and predicted fin, humpback, and blue whale distributions off California. Specifically, risk was estimated in four regions that are important for ship-strike risk management. We estimated risk by multiplying the predicted number of whales by the distance traveled by ships. To overcome the temporal mismatch between the available ship traffic and whale data, we classified the ship traffic data into nearshore and offshore traffic scenarios using the percentage of ship traffic traveling more than 24 nmi from the mainland coast, which was the boundary of a clean fuel rule implemented in 2009 that altered ship traffic patterns. We found that risk for fin and humpback whale populations off California increased as these species recovered from whaling. We also found that broad-scale, northward shifts in blue whale distributions throughout the North Pacific, likely in response to changes in oceanographic conditions, were associated with increased ship-strike risk off northern California. The magnitude of ship-strike risk for fin, humpback, and blue whales was influenced by the ship traffic scenarios. Interannual variability in predicted whale distributions also influenced the magnitude of ship-strike risk, but generally did not change whether the nearshore or offshore traffic scenario had higher risk. The consistency in the highest risk from the traffic scenarios likely occurred because areas containing the highest predicted number of whales were generally the same across years. The consistency in risk from the traffic scenarios suggests that static ... Article in Journal/Newspaper Blue whale Humpback Whale Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Pacific Frontiers in Marine Science 6 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
op_collection_id |
ftdoajarticles |
language |
English |
topic |
species distribution modeling interannual variability in species distributions commercial shipping variability in ship traffic spatially explicit risk assessment ship-strike risk Science Q General. Including nature conservation geographical distribution QH1-199.5 |
spellingShingle |
species distribution modeling interannual variability in species distributions commercial shipping variability in ship traffic spatially explicit risk assessment ship-strike risk Science Q General. Including nature conservation geographical distribution QH1-199.5 Jessica V. Redfern Elizabeth A. Becker Thomas J. Moore Effects of Variability in Ship Traffic and Whale Distributions on the Risk of Ships Striking Whales |
topic_facet |
species distribution modeling interannual variability in species distributions commercial shipping variability in ship traffic spatially explicit risk assessment ship-strike risk Science Q General. Including nature conservation geographical distribution QH1-199.5 |
description |
Assessments of ship-strike risk for large whales typically use a single year of ship traffic data and averaged predictions of species distributions. Consequently, they do not account for variability in ship traffic or species distributions. Variability could reduce the effectiveness of static management measures designed to mitigate ship-strike risk. We explore the consequences of interannual variability on ship-strike risk using multiple years of both ship traffic data and predicted fin, humpback, and blue whale distributions off California. Specifically, risk was estimated in four regions that are important for ship-strike risk management. We estimated risk by multiplying the predicted number of whales by the distance traveled by ships. To overcome the temporal mismatch between the available ship traffic and whale data, we classified the ship traffic data into nearshore and offshore traffic scenarios using the percentage of ship traffic traveling more than 24 nmi from the mainland coast, which was the boundary of a clean fuel rule implemented in 2009 that altered ship traffic patterns. We found that risk for fin and humpback whale populations off California increased as these species recovered from whaling. We also found that broad-scale, northward shifts in blue whale distributions throughout the North Pacific, likely in response to changes in oceanographic conditions, were associated with increased ship-strike risk off northern California. The magnitude of ship-strike risk for fin, humpback, and blue whales was influenced by the ship traffic scenarios. Interannual variability in predicted whale distributions also influenced the magnitude of ship-strike risk, but generally did not change whether the nearshore or offshore traffic scenario had higher risk. The consistency in the highest risk from the traffic scenarios likely occurred because areas containing the highest predicted number of whales were generally the same across years. The consistency in risk from the traffic scenarios suggests that static ... |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Jessica V. Redfern Elizabeth A. Becker Thomas J. Moore |
author_facet |
Jessica V. Redfern Elizabeth A. Becker Thomas J. Moore |
author_sort |
Jessica V. Redfern |
title |
Effects of Variability in Ship Traffic and Whale Distributions on the Risk of Ships Striking Whales |
title_short |
Effects of Variability in Ship Traffic and Whale Distributions on the Risk of Ships Striking Whales |
title_full |
Effects of Variability in Ship Traffic and Whale Distributions on the Risk of Ships Striking Whales |
title_fullStr |
Effects of Variability in Ship Traffic and Whale Distributions on the Risk of Ships Striking Whales |
title_full_unstemmed |
Effects of Variability in Ship Traffic and Whale Distributions on the Risk of Ships Striking Whales |
title_sort |
effects of variability in ship traffic and whale distributions on the risk of ships striking whales |
publisher |
Frontiers Media S.A. |
publishDate |
2020 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2019.00793 https://doaj.org/article/662f407a2b5d4ed1b67243e468e51a42 |
geographic |
Pacific |
geographic_facet |
Pacific |
genre |
Blue whale Humpback Whale |
genre_facet |
Blue whale Humpback Whale |
op_source |
Frontiers in Marine Science, Vol 6 (2020) |
op_relation |
https://www.frontiersin.org/article/10.3389/fmars.2019.00793/full https://doaj.org/toc/2296-7745 2296-7745 doi:10.3389/fmars.2019.00793 https://doaj.org/article/662f407a2b5d4ed1b67243e468e51a42 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2019.00793 |
container_title |
Frontiers in Marine Science |
container_volume |
6 |
_version_ |
1766379539763560448 |