Short-term forecast of local tsunamis based on data containing seismic noise from deep-ocean stations closest to the sources
Reliable short-term tsunami forecast on the Kuril Islands when earthquakes occur in the Kuril-Kamchatka Trench is the most difficult. Forecasting by the traditional magnitude method often leads to false tsunami alarms. Based on the examples of the events of 2006, 2007 and 2020 on the Kuril Islands,...
Published in: | Geosystems of Transition Zones |
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Language: | English Russian |
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Дальневосточного отделения Российской академии наук, Южно-Сахалинск, Федеральное государственное бюджетное учреждение науки Институт морской геологии и геофизики
2020
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Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.30730/gtrz.2020.4.4.447-460.461-473 https://doaj.org/article/65c9c5a9942147368e974ab35e671dcf |
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:65c9c5a9942147368e974ab35e671dcf 2023-05-15T16:59:22+02:00 Short-term forecast of local tsunamis based on data containing seismic noise from deep-ocean stations closest to the sources Yury P. Korolev Pavel Yu. Korolev 2020-12-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.30730/gtrz.2020.4.4.447-460.461-473 https://doaj.org/article/65c9c5a9942147368e974ab35e671dcf EN RU eng rus Дальневосточного отделения Российской академии наук, Южно-Сахалинск, Федеральное государственное бюджетное учреждение науки Институт морской геологии и геофизики http://journal.imgg.ru/web/full/f-e2020-4-4.pdf https://doaj.org/toc/2541-8912 https://doaj.org/toc/2713-2161 https://doi.org/10.30730/gtrz.2020.4.4.447-460.461-473 2541-8912 2713-2161 https://doaj.org/article/65c9c5a9942147368e974ab35e671dcf Геосистемы переходных зон, Vol 4, Iss 4, Pp 447-473 (2020) tsunami earthquake magnitude tsunami alarm onekotan kuril islands severo-kurilsk method of short-term tsunami forecast forecast lead time dart seismic noise Dynamic and structural geology QE500-639.5 Stratigraphy QE640-699 Engineering geology. Rock mechanics. Soil mechanics. Underground construction TA703-712 Petrology QE420-499 article 2020 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.30730/gtrz.2020.4.4.447-460.461-473 2022-12-31T05:32:27Z Reliable short-term tsunami forecast on the Kuril Islands when earthquakes occur in the Kuril-Kamchatka Trench is the most difficult. Forecasting by the traditional magnitude method often leads to false tsunami alarms. Based on the examples of the events of 2006, 2007 and 2020 on the Kuril Islands, as well as the event of 2018 in Alaska, it was shown that according to the data of the ocean level measuring stations closest to the tsunami source (tsunami travel time is 10–20 minutes) it is possible to adequately predict the tsunami near the coast. Calculations of tsunami waveforms near the coast from data containing seismic noise have shown that the resulting waveforms contain high-frequency oscillations. However, these fluctuations do not interfere with the assessment of the real waveform and the danger of the expected tsunami. In contrast to forecast methods based on the magnitude criterion, the applied method of short-term tsunami forecast makes it possible to calculate the waveform: the amplitudes of the first, maximum waves, their arrival time at a given point and the estimated duration of the tsunami. The proposed method can become a tool that will improve the quality of operational tsunami warning, significantly reducing the number of false tsunami alarms. Article in Journal/Newspaper Kamchatka Alaska Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Geosystems of Transition Zones 4 4 447 473 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
op_collection_id |
ftdoajarticles |
language |
English Russian |
topic |
tsunami earthquake magnitude tsunami alarm onekotan kuril islands severo-kurilsk method of short-term tsunami forecast forecast lead time dart seismic noise Dynamic and structural geology QE500-639.5 Stratigraphy QE640-699 Engineering geology. Rock mechanics. Soil mechanics. Underground construction TA703-712 Petrology QE420-499 |
spellingShingle |
tsunami earthquake magnitude tsunami alarm onekotan kuril islands severo-kurilsk method of short-term tsunami forecast forecast lead time dart seismic noise Dynamic and structural geology QE500-639.5 Stratigraphy QE640-699 Engineering geology. Rock mechanics. Soil mechanics. Underground construction TA703-712 Petrology QE420-499 Yury P. Korolev Pavel Yu. Korolev Short-term forecast of local tsunamis based on data containing seismic noise from deep-ocean stations closest to the sources |
topic_facet |
tsunami earthquake magnitude tsunami alarm onekotan kuril islands severo-kurilsk method of short-term tsunami forecast forecast lead time dart seismic noise Dynamic and structural geology QE500-639.5 Stratigraphy QE640-699 Engineering geology. Rock mechanics. Soil mechanics. Underground construction TA703-712 Petrology QE420-499 |
description |
Reliable short-term tsunami forecast on the Kuril Islands when earthquakes occur in the Kuril-Kamchatka Trench is the most difficult. Forecasting by the traditional magnitude method often leads to false tsunami alarms. Based on the examples of the events of 2006, 2007 and 2020 on the Kuril Islands, as well as the event of 2018 in Alaska, it was shown that according to the data of the ocean level measuring stations closest to the tsunami source (tsunami travel time is 10–20 minutes) it is possible to adequately predict the tsunami near the coast. Calculations of tsunami waveforms near the coast from data containing seismic noise have shown that the resulting waveforms contain high-frequency oscillations. However, these fluctuations do not interfere with the assessment of the real waveform and the danger of the expected tsunami. In contrast to forecast methods based on the magnitude criterion, the applied method of short-term tsunami forecast makes it possible to calculate the waveform: the amplitudes of the first, maximum waves, their arrival time at a given point and the estimated duration of the tsunami. The proposed method can become a tool that will improve the quality of operational tsunami warning, significantly reducing the number of false tsunami alarms. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Yury P. Korolev Pavel Yu. Korolev |
author_facet |
Yury P. Korolev Pavel Yu. Korolev |
author_sort |
Yury P. Korolev |
title |
Short-term forecast of local tsunamis based on data containing seismic noise from deep-ocean stations closest to the sources |
title_short |
Short-term forecast of local tsunamis based on data containing seismic noise from deep-ocean stations closest to the sources |
title_full |
Short-term forecast of local tsunamis based on data containing seismic noise from deep-ocean stations closest to the sources |
title_fullStr |
Short-term forecast of local tsunamis based on data containing seismic noise from deep-ocean stations closest to the sources |
title_full_unstemmed |
Short-term forecast of local tsunamis based on data containing seismic noise from deep-ocean stations closest to the sources |
title_sort |
short-term forecast of local tsunamis based on data containing seismic noise from deep-ocean stations closest to the sources |
publisher |
Дальневосточного отделения Российской академии наук, Южно-Сахалинск, Федеральное государственное бюджетное учреждение науки Институт морской геологии и геофизики |
publishDate |
2020 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.30730/gtrz.2020.4.4.447-460.461-473 https://doaj.org/article/65c9c5a9942147368e974ab35e671dcf |
genre |
Kamchatka Alaska |
genre_facet |
Kamchatka Alaska |
op_source |
Геосистемы переходных зон, Vol 4, Iss 4, Pp 447-473 (2020) |
op_relation |
http://journal.imgg.ru/web/full/f-e2020-4-4.pdf https://doaj.org/toc/2541-8912 https://doaj.org/toc/2713-2161 https://doi.org/10.30730/gtrz.2020.4.4.447-460.461-473 2541-8912 2713-2161 https://doaj.org/article/65c9c5a9942147368e974ab35e671dcf |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.30730/gtrz.2020.4.4.447-460.461-473 |
container_title |
Geosystems of Transition Zones |
container_volume |
4 |
container_issue |
4 |
container_start_page |
447 |
op_container_end_page |
473 |
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1766051618653995008 |