Investigating the upsurge of malaria prevalence in Zambia between 2010 and 2015: a decomposition of determinants
Abstract Background Malaria is among the top causes of mortality and morbidity in Zambia. Efforts to control, prevent, and eliminate it have been intensified in the past two decades which has contributed to reductions in malaria prevalence and under-five mortality. However, there was a 21% upsurge i...
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:6584cdd4f6ae484aa3f4aaaf56e118f9 2023-05-15T15:18:23+02:00 Investigating the upsurge of malaria prevalence in Zambia between 2010 and 2015: a decomposition of determinants Mukumbuta Nawa Peter Hangoma Andrew P. Morse Charles Michelo 2019-03-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.1186/s12936-019-2698-x https://doaj.org/article/6584cdd4f6ae484aa3f4aaaf56e118f9 EN eng BMC http://link.springer.com/article/10.1186/s12936-019-2698-x https://doaj.org/toc/1475-2875 doi:10.1186/s12936-019-2698-x 1475-2875 https://doaj.org/article/6584cdd4f6ae484aa3f4aaaf56e118f9 Malaria Journal, Vol 18, Iss 1, Pp 1-10 (2019) Malaria prevalence Upsurge Insecticide treated nets Indoor residual spraying Standard housing Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine RC955-962 Infectious and parasitic diseases RC109-216 article 2019 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.1186/s12936-019-2698-x 2022-12-31T03:13:34Z Abstract Background Malaria is among the top causes of mortality and morbidity in Zambia. Efforts to control, prevent, and eliminate it have been intensified in the past two decades which has contributed to reductions in malaria prevalence and under-five mortality. However, there was a 21% upsurge in malaria prevalence between 2010 and 2015. Zambia is one of the only 13 countries to record an increase in malaria among 91 countries monitored by the World Health Organization in 2015. This study investigated the upsurge by decomposition of drivers of malaria. Methods The study used secondary data from three waves of nationally representative cross-sectional surveys on key malaria indicators conducted in 2010, 2012 and 2015. Using multivariable logistic regression, determinants of malaria prevalence were identified and then marginal effects of each determinant were derived. The marginal effects were then combined with changes in coverage rates of determinants between 2010 and 2015 to obtain the magnitude of how much each variable contributed to the change in the malaria prevalence. Results The odds ratio of malaria for those who slept under an insecticide-treated net (ITN) was 0.90 (95% CI 0.77–0.97), indoor residual spraying (IRS) was 0.66 (95% CI 0.49–0.89), urban residence was 0.23 (95% CI 0.15–0.37), standard house was 0.40 (95% CI 0.35–0.71) and age group 12–59 Months against those below 12 months was 4.04 (95% CI 2.80–5.81). Decomposition of prevalence changes by determinants showed that IRS reduced malaria prevalence by − 0.3% and ITNs by − 0.2% however, these reductions were overridden by increases in prevalence due to increases in the proportion of more at-risk children aged 12–59 months by + 2.3% and rural residents by + 2.2%. Conclusion The increases in interventions, such as ITNs and IRS, were shown to have contributed to malaria reduction in 2015; however, changes in demographics such as increases in the proportion of more at risk groups among under-five children and rural residents may have overridden ... Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Arctic Malaria Journal 18 1 |
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ftdoajarticles |
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Malaria prevalence Upsurge Insecticide treated nets Indoor residual spraying Standard housing Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine RC955-962 Infectious and parasitic diseases RC109-216 |
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Malaria prevalence Upsurge Insecticide treated nets Indoor residual spraying Standard housing Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine RC955-962 Infectious and parasitic diseases RC109-216 Mukumbuta Nawa Peter Hangoma Andrew P. Morse Charles Michelo Investigating the upsurge of malaria prevalence in Zambia between 2010 and 2015: a decomposition of determinants |
topic_facet |
Malaria prevalence Upsurge Insecticide treated nets Indoor residual spraying Standard housing Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine RC955-962 Infectious and parasitic diseases RC109-216 |
description |
Abstract Background Malaria is among the top causes of mortality and morbidity in Zambia. Efforts to control, prevent, and eliminate it have been intensified in the past two decades which has contributed to reductions in malaria prevalence and under-five mortality. However, there was a 21% upsurge in malaria prevalence between 2010 and 2015. Zambia is one of the only 13 countries to record an increase in malaria among 91 countries monitored by the World Health Organization in 2015. This study investigated the upsurge by decomposition of drivers of malaria. Methods The study used secondary data from three waves of nationally representative cross-sectional surveys on key malaria indicators conducted in 2010, 2012 and 2015. Using multivariable logistic regression, determinants of malaria prevalence were identified and then marginal effects of each determinant were derived. The marginal effects were then combined with changes in coverage rates of determinants between 2010 and 2015 to obtain the magnitude of how much each variable contributed to the change in the malaria prevalence. Results The odds ratio of malaria for those who slept under an insecticide-treated net (ITN) was 0.90 (95% CI 0.77–0.97), indoor residual spraying (IRS) was 0.66 (95% CI 0.49–0.89), urban residence was 0.23 (95% CI 0.15–0.37), standard house was 0.40 (95% CI 0.35–0.71) and age group 12–59 Months against those below 12 months was 4.04 (95% CI 2.80–5.81). Decomposition of prevalence changes by determinants showed that IRS reduced malaria prevalence by − 0.3% and ITNs by − 0.2% however, these reductions were overridden by increases in prevalence due to increases in the proportion of more at-risk children aged 12–59 months by + 2.3% and rural residents by + 2.2%. Conclusion The increases in interventions, such as ITNs and IRS, were shown to have contributed to malaria reduction in 2015; however, changes in demographics such as increases in the proportion of more at risk groups among under-five children and rural residents may have overridden ... |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Mukumbuta Nawa Peter Hangoma Andrew P. Morse Charles Michelo |
author_facet |
Mukumbuta Nawa Peter Hangoma Andrew P. Morse Charles Michelo |
author_sort |
Mukumbuta Nawa |
title |
Investigating the upsurge of malaria prevalence in Zambia between 2010 and 2015: a decomposition of determinants |
title_short |
Investigating the upsurge of malaria prevalence in Zambia between 2010 and 2015: a decomposition of determinants |
title_full |
Investigating the upsurge of malaria prevalence in Zambia between 2010 and 2015: a decomposition of determinants |
title_fullStr |
Investigating the upsurge of malaria prevalence in Zambia between 2010 and 2015: a decomposition of determinants |
title_full_unstemmed |
Investigating the upsurge of malaria prevalence in Zambia between 2010 and 2015: a decomposition of determinants |
title_sort |
investigating the upsurge of malaria prevalence in zambia between 2010 and 2015: a decomposition of determinants |
publisher |
BMC |
publishDate |
2019 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.1186/s12936-019-2698-x https://doaj.org/article/6584cdd4f6ae484aa3f4aaaf56e118f9 |
geographic |
Arctic |
geographic_facet |
Arctic |
genre |
Arctic |
genre_facet |
Arctic |
op_source |
Malaria Journal, Vol 18, Iss 1, Pp 1-10 (2019) |
op_relation |
http://link.springer.com/article/10.1186/s12936-019-2698-x https://doaj.org/toc/1475-2875 doi:10.1186/s12936-019-2698-x 1475-2875 https://doaj.org/article/6584cdd4f6ae484aa3f4aaaf56e118f9 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1186/s12936-019-2698-x |
container_title |
Malaria Journal |
container_volume |
18 |
container_issue |
1 |
_version_ |
1766348581207277568 |