The Arctic sea ice cover of 2016: a year of record-low highs and higher-than-expected lows

The Arctic sea ice cover of 2016 was highly noteworthy, as it featured record low monthly sea ice extents at the start of the year but a summer (September) extent that was higher than expected by most seasonal forecasts. Here we explore the 2016 Arctic sea ice state in terms of its monthly sea ice c...

Full description

Bibliographic Details
Published in:The Cryosphere
Main Authors: A. A. Petty, J. C. Stroeve, P. R. Holland, L. N. Boisvert, A. C. Bliss, N. Kimura, W. N. Meier
Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
Language:English
Published: Copernicus Publications 2018
Subjects:
Online Access:https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-433-2018
https://doaj.org/article/6557d65942fe4720ad529626eccba856
id ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:6557d65942fe4720ad529626eccba856
record_format openpolar
spelling ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:6557d65942fe4720ad529626eccba856 2023-05-15T14:34:05+02:00 The Arctic sea ice cover of 2016: a year of record-low highs and higher-than-expected lows A. A. Petty J. C. Stroeve P. R. Holland L. N. Boisvert A. C. Bliss N. Kimura W. N. Meier 2018-02-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-433-2018 https://doaj.org/article/6557d65942fe4720ad529626eccba856 EN eng Copernicus Publications https://www.the-cryosphere.net/12/433/2018/tc-12-433-2018.pdf https://doaj.org/toc/1994-0416 https://doaj.org/toc/1994-0424 doi:10.5194/tc-12-433-2018 1994-0416 1994-0424 https://doaj.org/article/6557d65942fe4720ad529626eccba856 The Cryosphere, Vol 12, Pp 433-452 (2018) Environmental sciences GE1-350 Geology QE1-996.5 article 2018 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-433-2018 2022-12-31T14:56:22Z The Arctic sea ice cover of 2016 was highly noteworthy, as it featured record low monthly sea ice extents at the start of the year but a summer (September) extent that was higher than expected by most seasonal forecasts. Here we explore the 2016 Arctic sea ice state in terms of its monthly sea ice cover, placing this in the context of the sea ice conditions observed since 2000. We demonstrate the sensitivity of monthly Arctic sea ice extent and area estimates, in terms of their magnitude and annual rankings, to the ice concentration input data (using two widely used datasets) and to the averaging methodology used to convert concentration to extent (daily or monthly extent calculations). We use estimates of sea ice area over sea ice extent to analyse the relative "compactness" of the Arctic sea ice cover, highlighting anomalously low compactness in the summer of 2016 which contributed to the higher-than-expected September ice extent. Two cyclones that entered the Arctic Ocean during August appear to have driven this low-concentration/compactness ice cover but were not sufficient to cause more widespread melt-out and a new record-low September ice extent. We use concentration budgets to explore the regions and processes (thermodynamics/dynamics) contributing to the monthly 2016 extent/area estimates highlighting, amongst other things, rapid ice intensification across the central eastern Arctic through September. Two different products show significant early melt onset across the Arctic Ocean in 2016, including record-early melt onset in the North Atlantic sector of the Arctic. Our results also show record-late 2016 freeze-up in the central Arctic, North Atlantic and the Alaskan Arctic sector in particular, associated with strong sea surface temperature anomalies that appeared shortly after the 2016 minimum (October onwards). We explore the implications of this low summer ice compactness for seasonal forecasting, suggesting that sea ice area could be a more reliable metric to forecast in this more seasonal, "New ... Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Arctic Ocean North Atlantic Sea ice The Cryosphere Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Arctic Arctic Ocean The Cryosphere 12 2 433 452
institution Open Polar
collection Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles
op_collection_id ftdoajarticles
language English
topic Environmental sciences
GE1-350
Geology
QE1-996.5
spellingShingle Environmental sciences
GE1-350
Geology
QE1-996.5
A. A. Petty
J. C. Stroeve
P. R. Holland
L. N. Boisvert
A. C. Bliss
N. Kimura
W. N. Meier
The Arctic sea ice cover of 2016: a year of record-low highs and higher-than-expected lows
topic_facet Environmental sciences
GE1-350
Geology
QE1-996.5
description The Arctic sea ice cover of 2016 was highly noteworthy, as it featured record low monthly sea ice extents at the start of the year but a summer (September) extent that was higher than expected by most seasonal forecasts. Here we explore the 2016 Arctic sea ice state in terms of its monthly sea ice cover, placing this in the context of the sea ice conditions observed since 2000. We demonstrate the sensitivity of monthly Arctic sea ice extent and area estimates, in terms of their magnitude and annual rankings, to the ice concentration input data (using two widely used datasets) and to the averaging methodology used to convert concentration to extent (daily or monthly extent calculations). We use estimates of sea ice area over sea ice extent to analyse the relative "compactness" of the Arctic sea ice cover, highlighting anomalously low compactness in the summer of 2016 which contributed to the higher-than-expected September ice extent. Two cyclones that entered the Arctic Ocean during August appear to have driven this low-concentration/compactness ice cover but were not sufficient to cause more widespread melt-out and a new record-low September ice extent. We use concentration budgets to explore the regions and processes (thermodynamics/dynamics) contributing to the monthly 2016 extent/area estimates highlighting, amongst other things, rapid ice intensification across the central eastern Arctic through September. Two different products show significant early melt onset across the Arctic Ocean in 2016, including record-early melt onset in the North Atlantic sector of the Arctic. Our results also show record-late 2016 freeze-up in the central Arctic, North Atlantic and the Alaskan Arctic sector in particular, associated with strong sea surface temperature anomalies that appeared shortly after the 2016 minimum (October onwards). We explore the implications of this low summer ice compactness for seasonal forecasting, suggesting that sea ice area could be a more reliable metric to forecast in this more seasonal, "New ...
format Article in Journal/Newspaper
author A. A. Petty
J. C. Stroeve
P. R. Holland
L. N. Boisvert
A. C. Bliss
N. Kimura
W. N. Meier
author_facet A. A. Petty
J. C. Stroeve
P. R. Holland
L. N. Boisvert
A. C. Bliss
N. Kimura
W. N. Meier
author_sort A. A. Petty
title The Arctic sea ice cover of 2016: a year of record-low highs and higher-than-expected lows
title_short The Arctic sea ice cover of 2016: a year of record-low highs and higher-than-expected lows
title_full The Arctic sea ice cover of 2016: a year of record-low highs and higher-than-expected lows
title_fullStr The Arctic sea ice cover of 2016: a year of record-low highs and higher-than-expected lows
title_full_unstemmed The Arctic sea ice cover of 2016: a year of record-low highs and higher-than-expected lows
title_sort arctic sea ice cover of 2016: a year of record-low highs and higher-than-expected lows
publisher Copernicus Publications
publishDate 2018
url https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-433-2018
https://doaj.org/article/6557d65942fe4720ad529626eccba856
geographic Arctic
Arctic Ocean
geographic_facet Arctic
Arctic Ocean
genre Arctic
Arctic Ocean
North Atlantic
Sea ice
The Cryosphere
genre_facet Arctic
Arctic Ocean
North Atlantic
Sea ice
The Cryosphere
op_source The Cryosphere, Vol 12, Pp 433-452 (2018)
op_relation https://www.the-cryosphere.net/12/433/2018/tc-12-433-2018.pdf
https://doaj.org/toc/1994-0416
https://doaj.org/toc/1994-0424
doi:10.5194/tc-12-433-2018
1994-0416
1994-0424
https://doaj.org/article/6557d65942fe4720ad529626eccba856
op_doi https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-433-2018
container_title The Cryosphere
container_volume 12
container_issue 2
container_start_page 433
op_container_end_page 452
_version_ 1766307206403194880