Epidemiological characteristics and determinants of dengue transmission during epidemic and non-epidemic years in Fortaleza, Brazil: 2011-2015.
Background After being eliminated during the 1950s, dengue reemerged in Brazil in the 1980s. Since then, incidence of the disease has increased, as serotypes move within and between cities. The co-circulation of multiple serotypes contributes to cycles of epidemic and interepidemic years, and a seas...
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:64e6cf9bc5054734bd762a803099d395 2023-05-15T15:13:32+02:00 Epidemiological characteristics and determinants of dengue transmission during epidemic and non-epidemic years in Fortaleza, Brazil: 2011-2015. Benjamin MacCormack-Gelles Antonio S Lima Neto Geziel S Sousa Osmar J Nascimento Marcia M T Machado Mary E Wilson Marcia C Castro 2018-12-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0006990 https://doaj.org/article/64e6cf9bc5054734bd762a803099d395 EN eng Public Library of Science (PLoS) https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0006990 https://doaj.org/toc/1935-2727 https://doaj.org/toc/1935-2735 1935-2727 1935-2735 doi:10.1371/journal.pntd.0006990 https://doaj.org/article/64e6cf9bc5054734bd762a803099d395 PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases, Vol 12, Iss 12, p e0006990 (2018) Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine RC955-962 Public aspects of medicine RA1-1270 article 2018 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0006990 2022-12-31T10:07:33Z Background After being eliminated during the 1950s, dengue reemerged in Brazil in the 1980s. Since then, incidence of the disease has increased, as serotypes move within and between cities. The co-circulation of multiple serotypes contributes to cycles of epidemic and interepidemic years, and a seasonal pattern of transmission is observed annually. Little is known regarding possible differences in the epidemiology of dengue under epidemic and interepidemic scenarios. This study addresses this gap and aims to assess the epidemiological characteristics and determinants of epidemic and interepidemic dengue transmission, utilizing data from the 5th largest city in Brazil (Fortaleza), at fine spatial and temporal scales. Methods/principal findings Longitudinal models of monthly rates of confirmed dengue cases were used to estimate the differential contribution of contextual factors to dengue transmission in Fortaleza between 2011 and 2015. Models were stratified by annual climatological schedules and periods of interepidemic and epidemic transmission, controlling for social, economic, structural, entomological, and environmental factors. Results revealed distinct seasonal patterns between interepidemic and epidemic years, with persistent transmission after June in interepidemic years. Dengue was strongly associated with violence across strata, and with poverty and irregular garbage collection during periods of low transmission, but not with other indicators of public service provision or structural deprivation. Scrapyards and sites associated with tire storage were linked to incidence differentially between seasons, with the strongest associations during transitional precipitation periods. Hierarchical clustering analysis suggests that the dengue burden concentrates in the southern periphery of the city, particularly during periods of minimal transmission. Conclusions/significance Our findings have direct programmatic implications. Vector control operations must be sustained after June even in non-epidemic years. ... Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Arctic PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases 12 12 e0006990 |
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Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
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ftdoajarticles |
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English |
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Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine RC955-962 Public aspects of medicine RA1-1270 |
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Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine RC955-962 Public aspects of medicine RA1-1270 Benjamin MacCormack-Gelles Antonio S Lima Neto Geziel S Sousa Osmar J Nascimento Marcia M T Machado Mary E Wilson Marcia C Castro Epidemiological characteristics and determinants of dengue transmission during epidemic and non-epidemic years in Fortaleza, Brazil: 2011-2015. |
topic_facet |
Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine RC955-962 Public aspects of medicine RA1-1270 |
description |
Background After being eliminated during the 1950s, dengue reemerged in Brazil in the 1980s. Since then, incidence of the disease has increased, as serotypes move within and between cities. The co-circulation of multiple serotypes contributes to cycles of epidemic and interepidemic years, and a seasonal pattern of transmission is observed annually. Little is known regarding possible differences in the epidemiology of dengue under epidemic and interepidemic scenarios. This study addresses this gap and aims to assess the epidemiological characteristics and determinants of epidemic and interepidemic dengue transmission, utilizing data from the 5th largest city in Brazil (Fortaleza), at fine spatial and temporal scales. Methods/principal findings Longitudinal models of monthly rates of confirmed dengue cases were used to estimate the differential contribution of contextual factors to dengue transmission in Fortaleza between 2011 and 2015. Models were stratified by annual climatological schedules and periods of interepidemic and epidemic transmission, controlling for social, economic, structural, entomological, and environmental factors. Results revealed distinct seasonal patterns between interepidemic and epidemic years, with persistent transmission after June in interepidemic years. Dengue was strongly associated with violence across strata, and with poverty and irregular garbage collection during periods of low transmission, but not with other indicators of public service provision or structural deprivation. Scrapyards and sites associated with tire storage were linked to incidence differentially between seasons, with the strongest associations during transitional precipitation periods. Hierarchical clustering analysis suggests that the dengue burden concentrates in the southern periphery of the city, particularly during periods of minimal transmission. Conclusions/significance Our findings have direct programmatic implications. Vector control operations must be sustained after June even in non-epidemic years. ... |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Benjamin MacCormack-Gelles Antonio S Lima Neto Geziel S Sousa Osmar J Nascimento Marcia M T Machado Mary E Wilson Marcia C Castro |
author_facet |
Benjamin MacCormack-Gelles Antonio S Lima Neto Geziel S Sousa Osmar J Nascimento Marcia M T Machado Mary E Wilson Marcia C Castro |
author_sort |
Benjamin MacCormack-Gelles |
title |
Epidemiological characteristics and determinants of dengue transmission during epidemic and non-epidemic years in Fortaleza, Brazil: 2011-2015. |
title_short |
Epidemiological characteristics and determinants of dengue transmission during epidemic and non-epidemic years in Fortaleza, Brazil: 2011-2015. |
title_full |
Epidemiological characteristics and determinants of dengue transmission during epidemic and non-epidemic years in Fortaleza, Brazil: 2011-2015. |
title_fullStr |
Epidemiological characteristics and determinants of dengue transmission during epidemic and non-epidemic years in Fortaleza, Brazil: 2011-2015. |
title_full_unstemmed |
Epidemiological characteristics and determinants of dengue transmission during epidemic and non-epidemic years in Fortaleza, Brazil: 2011-2015. |
title_sort |
epidemiological characteristics and determinants of dengue transmission during epidemic and non-epidemic years in fortaleza, brazil: 2011-2015. |
publisher |
Public Library of Science (PLoS) |
publishDate |
2018 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0006990 https://doaj.org/article/64e6cf9bc5054734bd762a803099d395 |
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Arctic |
geographic_facet |
Arctic |
genre |
Arctic |
genre_facet |
Arctic |
op_source |
PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases, Vol 12, Iss 12, p e0006990 (2018) |
op_relation |
https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0006990 https://doaj.org/toc/1935-2727 https://doaj.org/toc/1935-2735 1935-2727 1935-2735 doi:10.1371/journal.pntd.0006990 https://doaj.org/article/64e6cf9bc5054734bd762a803099d395 |
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https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0006990 |
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PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases |
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12 |
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e0006990 |
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