The impact of a future solar minimum on climate change projections in the Northern Hemisphere
Solar variability represents a source of uncertainty in the future forcings used in climate model simulations. Current knowledge indicates that a descent of solar activity into an extended minimum state is a possible scenario. With aid of experiments from a state-of-the-art Earth system model,we inv...
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Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/11/3/034015 https://doaj.org/article/64cf5b5d4bec4d94a2f8e546e8c95c4c |
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:64cf5b5d4bec4d94a2f8e546e8c95c4c 2023-09-05T13:23:06+02:00 The impact of a future solar minimum on climate change projections in the Northern Hemisphere G Chiodo R García-Herrera N Calvo J M Vaquero J A Añel D Barriopedro K Matthes 2016-01-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/11/3/034015 https://doaj.org/article/64cf5b5d4bec4d94a2f8e546e8c95c4c EN eng IOP Publishing https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/11/3/034015 https://doaj.org/toc/1748-9326 doi:10.1088/1748-9326/11/3/034015 1748-9326 https://doaj.org/article/64cf5b5d4bec4d94a2f8e546e8c95c4c Environmental Research Letters, Vol 11, Iss 3, p 034015 (2016) climate change projections global models future solar minimum Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering TD1-1066 Environmental sciences GE1-350 Science Q Physics QC1-999 article 2016 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/11/3/034015 2023-08-13T00:37:52Z Solar variability represents a source of uncertainty in the future forcings used in climate model simulations. Current knowledge indicates that a descent of solar activity into an extended minimum state is a possible scenario. With aid of experiments from a state-of-the-art Earth system model,we investigate the impact of a future solar minimum on Northern Hemisphere climate change projections. This scenario is constructed from recent 11 year solar-cycle minima of the solar spectral irradiance, and is therefore more conservative than the ‘grand’ minima employed in some previous modeling studies. Despite the small reduction in total solar irradiance (0.36 W m ^−2 ), relatively large responses emerge in the winter Northern Hemisphere, with a reduction in regional-scale projected warming by up to 40%. To identify the origin of the enhanced regional signals, we assess the role of the different mechanisms by performing additional experiments forced only by irradiance changes at different wavelengths of the solar spectrum. We find that a reduction in visible irradiance drives changes in the stationary wave pattern of the North Pacific and sea–ice cover. A decrease in UV irradiance leads to smaller surface signals, although its regional effects are not negligible. These results point to a distinct but additive role of UV and visible irradiance in the Earth’s climate, and stress the need to account for solar forcing as a source of uncertainty in regional scale projections. Article in Journal/Newspaper Sea ice Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Pacific Environmental Research Letters 11 3 034015 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
op_collection_id |
ftdoajarticles |
language |
English |
topic |
climate change projections global models future solar minimum Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering TD1-1066 Environmental sciences GE1-350 Science Q Physics QC1-999 |
spellingShingle |
climate change projections global models future solar minimum Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering TD1-1066 Environmental sciences GE1-350 Science Q Physics QC1-999 G Chiodo R García-Herrera N Calvo J M Vaquero J A Añel D Barriopedro K Matthes The impact of a future solar minimum on climate change projections in the Northern Hemisphere |
topic_facet |
climate change projections global models future solar minimum Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering TD1-1066 Environmental sciences GE1-350 Science Q Physics QC1-999 |
description |
Solar variability represents a source of uncertainty in the future forcings used in climate model simulations. Current knowledge indicates that a descent of solar activity into an extended minimum state is a possible scenario. With aid of experiments from a state-of-the-art Earth system model,we investigate the impact of a future solar minimum on Northern Hemisphere climate change projections. This scenario is constructed from recent 11 year solar-cycle minima of the solar spectral irradiance, and is therefore more conservative than the ‘grand’ minima employed in some previous modeling studies. Despite the small reduction in total solar irradiance (0.36 W m ^−2 ), relatively large responses emerge in the winter Northern Hemisphere, with a reduction in regional-scale projected warming by up to 40%. To identify the origin of the enhanced regional signals, we assess the role of the different mechanisms by performing additional experiments forced only by irradiance changes at different wavelengths of the solar spectrum. We find that a reduction in visible irradiance drives changes in the stationary wave pattern of the North Pacific and sea–ice cover. A decrease in UV irradiance leads to smaller surface signals, although its regional effects are not negligible. These results point to a distinct but additive role of UV and visible irradiance in the Earth’s climate, and stress the need to account for solar forcing as a source of uncertainty in regional scale projections. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
G Chiodo R García-Herrera N Calvo J M Vaquero J A Añel D Barriopedro K Matthes |
author_facet |
G Chiodo R García-Herrera N Calvo J M Vaquero J A Añel D Barriopedro K Matthes |
author_sort |
G Chiodo |
title |
The impact of a future solar minimum on climate change projections in the Northern Hemisphere |
title_short |
The impact of a future solar minimum on climate change projections in the Northern Hemisphere |
title_full |
The impact of a future solar minimum on climate change projections in the Northern Hemisphere |
title_fullStr |
The impact of a future solar minimum on climate change projections in the Northern Hemisphere |
title_full_unstemmed |
The impact of a future solar minimum on climate change projections in the Northern Hemisphere |
title_sort |
impact of a future solar minimum on climate change projections in the northern hemisphere |
publisher |
IOP Publishing |
publishDate |
2016 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/11/3/034015 https://doaj.org/article/64cf5b5d4bec4d94a2f8e546e8c95c4c |
geographic |
Pacific |
geographic_facet |
Pacific |
genre |
Sea ice |
genre_facet |
Sea ice |
op_source |
Environmental Research Letters, Vol 11, Iss 3, p 034015 (2016) |
op_relation |
https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/11/3/034015 https://doaj.org/toc/1748-9326 doi:10.1088/1748-9326/11/3/034015 1748-9326 https://doaj.org/article/64cf5b5d4bec4d94a2f8e546e8c95c4c |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/11/3/034015 |
container_title |
Environmental Research Letters |
container_volume |
11 |
container_issue |
3 |
container_start_page |
034015 |
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1776203680240893952 |