Simulating future climate change impacts on snow- and ice-related driving hazards in Arctic-boreal regions
As Arctic and boreal regions rapidly warm, the frequency and seasonal timing of hazardous driving conditions on all-season Arctic-boreal roads are likely to change. Because these roads link remote Arctic areas to the rest of the North American road system, climate change may substantially affect saf...
Published in: | Environmental Research Letters |
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IOP Publishing
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Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/acb5b1 https://doaj.org/article/64addd88e6094b4aa72af18f8b83ea63 |
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:64addd88e6094b4aa72af18f8b83ea63 2023-09-05T13:16:54+02:00 Simulating future climate change impacts on snow- and ice-related driving hazards in Arctic-boreal regions Heather E Greaves Natalie T Boelman Todd J Brinkman Glen E Liston Laura R Prugh Adele K Reinking 2023-01-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/acb5b1 https://doaj.org/article/64addd88e6094b4aa72af18f8b83ea63 EN eng IOP Publishing https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/acb5b1 https://doaj.org/toc/1748-9326 doi:10.1088/1748-9326/acb5b1 1748-9326 https://doaj.org/article/64addd88e6094b4aa72af18f8b83ea63 Environmental Research Letters, Vol 18, Iss 2, p 025006 (2023) road conditions travel safety MERRA-2 GFDL-CM3 NCAR-CCSM4 SnowModel Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering TD1-1066 Environmental sciences GE1-350 Science Q Physics QC1-999 article 2023 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/acb5b1 2023-08-13T00:37:02Z As Arctic and boreal regions rapidly warm, the frequency and seasonal timing of hazardous driving conditions on all-season Arctic-boreal roads are likely to change. Because these roads link remote Arctic areas to the rest of the North American road system, climate change may substantially affect safety and quality of life for northern residents and commercial enterprises. To gain insight into future hazardous driving conditions, we built Random Forest models that predict the occurrence of hazardous driving conditions by linking snow, ice, and weather simulated by a spatially explicit modeling system (SnowModel) to archived road condition reports from two highly trafficked all-season northern roads: the Dalton Highway (Alaska, USA) and Dempster Highway (Yukon, Canada). We applied these models to downscaled future climate trajectories for the study period of 2006–2100. We estimated future trends in the frequency and timing of icy, wet-icy, and snowy road surfaces, blowing and drifting snow, and high winds. We found that as the climate warms, and the portion of the year when snow and ice occur becomes shorter, overall frequency of snow storms and ice- and snow-related driving hazards decreased. For example, the mean number of days per year when roads are covered in snow or ice decreased by 51 d (−21%) on the Dalton Highway between the 2006–2020 and 2081–2100 time periods. However, the intensity of storms was predicted to increase, resulting in higher mean annual storm wind speeds (Dalton +0.56 m s ^−1 [+17%]) and snowfall totals (Dalton +0.3 cm [+36%]). Our models also predicted increasing frequency of wet-icy driving conditions during November, December, January, and February, when daylength is short and hazardous conditions may be more difficult to perceive. Our findings may help road managers and drivers adapt their expectations and behaviors to minimize accident risk on Arctic-boreal roads in the future. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Climate change Alaska Yukon Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Arctic Canada Merra ENVELOPE(12.615,12.615,65.816,65.816) Yukon Environmental Research Letters 18 2 025006 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
op_collection_id |
ftdoajarticles |
language |
English |
topic |
road conditions travel safety MERRA-2 GFDL-CM3 NCAR-CCSM4 SnowModel Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering TD1-1066 Environmental sciences GE1-350 Science Q Physics QC1-999 |
spellingShingle |
road conditions travel safety MERRA-2 GFDL-CM3 NCAR-CCSM4 SnowModel Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering TD1-1066 Environmental sciences GE1-350 Science Q Physics QC1-999 Heather E Greaves Natalie T Boelman Todd J Brinkman Glen E Liston Laura R Prugh Adele K Reinking Simulating future climate change impacts on snow- and ice-related driving hazards in Arctic-boreal regions |
topic_facet |
road conditions travel safety MERRA-2 GFDL-CM3 NCAR-CCSM4 SnowModel Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering TD1-1066 Environmental sciences GE1-350 Science Q Physics QC1-999 |
description |
As Arctic and boreal regions rapidly warm, the frequency and seasonal timing of hazardous driving conditions on all-season Arctic-boreal roads are likely to change. Because these roads link remote Arctic areas to the rest of the North American road system, climate change may substantially affect safety and quality of life for northern residents and commercial enterprises. To gain insight into future hazardous driving conditions, we built Random Forest models that predict the occurrence of hazardous driving conditions by linking snow, ice, and weather simulated by a spatially explicit modeling system (SnowModel) to archived road condition reports from two highly trafficked all-season northern roads: the Dalton Highway (Alaska, USA) and Dempster Highway (Yukon, Canada). We applied these models to downscaled future climate trajectories for the study period of 2006–2100. We estimated future trends in the frequency and timing of icy, wet-icy, and snowy road surfaces, blowing and drifting snow, and high winds. We found that as the climate warms, and the portion of the year when snow and ice occur becomes shorter, overall frequency of snow storms and ice- and snow-related driving hazards decreased. For example, the mean number of days per year when roads are covered in snow or ice decreased by 51 d (−21%) on the Dalton Highway between the 2006–2020 and 2081–2100 time periods. However, the intensity of storms was predicted to increase, resulting in higher mean annual storm wind speeds (Dalton +0.56 m s ^−1 [+17%]) and snowfall totals (Dalton +0.3 cm [+36%]). Our models also predicted increasing frequency of wet-icy driving conditions during November, December, January, and February, when daylength is short and hazardous conditions may be more difficult to perceive. Our findings may help road managers and drivers adapt their expectations and behaviors to minimize accident risk on Arctic-boreal roads in the future. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Heather E Greaves Natalie T Boelman Todd J Brinkman Glen E Liston Laura R Prugh Adele K Reinking |
author_facet |
Heather E Greaves Natalie T Boelman Todd J Brinkman Glen E Liston Laura R Prugh Adele K Reinking |
author_sort |
Heather E Greaves |
title |
Simulating future climate change impacts on snow- and ice-related driving hazards in Arctic-boreal regions |
title_short |
Simulating future climate change impacts on snow- and ice-related driving hazards in Arctic-boreal regions |
title_full |
Simulating future climate change impacts on snow- and ice-related driving hazards in Arctic-boreal regions |
title_fullStr |
Simulating future climate change impacts on snow- and ice-related driving hazards in Arctic-boreal regions |
title_full_unstemmed |
Simulating future climate change impacts on snow- and ice-related driving hazards in Arctic-boreal regions |
title_sort |
simulating future climate change impacts on snow- and ice-related driving hazards in arctic-boreal regions |
publisher |
IOP Publishing |
publishDate |
2023 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/acb5b1 https://doaj.org/article/64addd88e6094b4aa72af18f8b83ea63 |
long_lat |
ENVELOPE(12.615,12.615,65.816,65.816) |
geographic |
Arctic Canada Merra Yukon |
geographic_facet |
Arctic Canada Merra Yukon |
genre |
Arctic Climate change Alaska Yukon |
genre_facet |
Arctic Climate change Alaska Yukon |
op_source |
Environmental Research Letters, Vol 18, Iss 2, p 025006 (2023) |
op_relation |
https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/acb5b1 https://doaj.org/toc/1748-9326 doi:10.1088/1748-9326/acb5b1 1748-9326 https://doaj.org/article/64addd88e6094b4aa72af18f8b83ea63 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/acb5b1 |
container_title |
Environmental Research Letters |
container_volume |
18 |
container_issue |
2 |
container_start_page |
025006 |
_version_ |
1776198311840055296 |