Quantifying the Probability and Causes of the Surprisingly Active 2018 North Atlantic Hurricane Season
Abstract The 2018 North Atlantic hurricane season was a destructive season with hurricanes Florence and Michael causing significant damage in the southeastern United States. In keeping with most destructive hurricane seasons, basinwide tropical cyclone activity was above average in 2018—by ~25% for...
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:63ec71128e924e65bc1b379c228038ab 2023-05-15T17:28:24+02:00 Quantifying the Probability and Causes of the Surprisingly Active 2018 North Atlantic Hurricane Season M. A. Saunders P. J. Klotzbach A. S. R. Lea C. J. Schreck M. M. Bell 2020-03-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.1029/2019EA000852 https://doaj.org/article/63ec71128e924e65bc1b379c228038ab EN eng American Geophysical Union (AGU) https://doi.org/10.1029/2019EA000852 https://doaj.org/toc/2333-5084 2333-5084 doi:10.1029/2019EA000852 https://doaj.org/article/63ec71128e924e65bc1b379c228038ab Earth and Space Science, Vol 7, Iss 3, Pp n/a-n/a (2020) Hurricane Tropical cyclone North Atlantic Seasonal prediction Statistical modeling Probability of exceedance Astronomy QB1-991 Geology QE1-996.5 article 2020 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.1029/2019EA000852 2022-12-30T22:44:29Z Abstract The 2018 North Atlantic hurricane season was a destructive season with hurricanes Florence and Michael causing significant damage in the southeastern United States. In keeping with most destructive hurricane seasons, basinwide tropical cyclone activity was above average in 2018—by ~25% for named storm numbers, hurricane numbers, and Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE). In contrast to this above‐normal activity, the August–September tropical environmental fields that explain ~50% of the variance in Atlantic basin hurricane activity between 1950 and 2017 anticipated a well below‐average 2018 hurricane season. The surprisingly large mismatch between the observed and replicated levels of hurricane activity in 2018 is an extreme example of the uncertainty inherent in seasonal hurricane outlooks and highlights the need for these outlooks to be issued in terms of probability of exceedance. Such probabilistic information would better clarify the uncertainty associated with hurricane outlooks to the benefit of users. With retrospective knowledge of the August–September 2018 key tropical environmental fields, the chance that the observed 2018 Atlantic hurricane activity would occur is about 5%. The reasons for the surprisingly high hurricane activity in 2018 are a hurricane outbreak in early September and, in particular, the occurrence of unusually high tropical cyclone activity in the subtropical North Atlantic. The hyperactive subtropical activity was not anticipated because contemporary statistical models of seasonal Atlantic hurricane activity lack skill in anticipating subtropical ACE compared to tropical ACE. Article in Journal/Newspaper North Atlantic Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Earth and Space Science 7 3 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
op_collection_id |
ftdoajarticles |
language |
English |
topic |
Hurricane Tropical cyclone North Atlantic Seasonal prediction Statistical modeling Probability of exceedance Astronomy QB1-991 Geology QE1-996.5 |
spellingShingle |
Hurricane Tropical cyclone North Atlantic Seasonal prediction Statistical modeling Probability of exceedance Astronomy QB1-991 Geology QE1-996.5 M. A. Saunders P. J. Klotzbach A. S. R. Lea C. J. Schreck M. M. Bell Quantifying the Probability and Causes of the Surprisingly Active 2018 North Atlantic Hurricane Season |
topic_facet |
Hurricane Tropical cyclone North Atlantic Seasonal prediction Statistical modeling Probability of exceedance Astronomy QB1-991 Geology QE1-996.5 |
description |
Abstract The 2018 North Atlantic hurricane season was a destructive season with hurricanes Florence and Michael causing significant damage in the southeastern United States. In keeping with most destructive hurricane seasons, basinwide tropical cyclone activity was above average in 2018—by ~25% for named storm numbers, hurricane numbers, and Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE). In contrast to this above‐normal activity, the August–September tropical environmental fields that explain ~50% of the variance in Atlantic basin hurricane activity between 1950 and 2017 anticipated a well below‐average 2018 hurricane season. The surprisingly large mismatch between the observed and replicated levels of hurricane activity in 2018 is an extreme example of the uncertainty inherent in seasonal hurricane outlooks and highlights the need for these outlooks to be issued in terms of probability of exceedance. Such probabilistic information would better clarify the uncertainty associated with hurricane outlooks to the benefit of users. With retrospective knowledge of the August–September 2018 key tropical environmental fields, the chance that the observed 2018 Atlantic hurricane activity would occur is about 5%. The reasons for the surprisingly high hurricane activity in 2018 are a hurricane outbreak in early September and, in particular, the occurrence of unusually high tropical cyclone activity in the subtropical North Atlantic. The hyperactive subtropical activity was not anticipated because contemporary statistical models of seasonal Atlantic hurricane activity lack skill in anticipating subtropical ACE compared to tropical ACE. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
M. A. Saunders P. J. Klotzbach A. S. R. Lea C. J. Schreck M. M. Bell |
author_facet |
M. A. Saunders P. J. Klotzbach A. S. R. Lea C. J. Schreck M. M. Bell |
author_sort |
M. A. Saunders |
title |
Quantifying the Probability and Causes of the Surprisingly Active 2018 North Atlantic Hurricane Season |
title_short |
Quantifying the Probability and Causes of the Surprisingly Active 2018 North Atlantic Hurricane Season |
title_full |
Quantifying the Probability and Causes of the Surprisingly Active 2018 North Atlantic Hurricane Season |
title_fullStr |
Quantifying the Probability and Causes of the Surprisingly Active 2018 North Atlantic Hurricane Season |
title_full_unstemmed |
Quantifying the Probability and Causes of the Surprisingly Active 2018 North Atlantic Hurricane Season |
title_sort |
quantifying the probability and causes of the surprisingly active 2018 north atlantic hurricane season |
publisher |
American Geophysical Union (AGU) |
publishDate |
2020 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.1029/2019EA000852 https://doaj.org/article/63ec71128e924e65bc1b379c228038ab |
genre |
North Atlantic |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic |
op_source |
Earth and Space Science, Vol 7, Iss 3, Pp n/a-n/a (2020) |
op_relation |
https://doi.org/10.1029/2019EA000852 https://doaj.org/toc/2333-5084 2333-5084 doi:10.1029/2019EA000852 https://doaj.org/article/63ec71128e924e65bc1b379c228038ab |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1029/2019EA000852 |
container_title |
Earth and Space Science |
container_volume |
7 |
container_issue |
3 |
_version_ |
1766121051257831424 |