Abundance does not predict extinction risk in the fossil record of marine plankton
Abstract A major premise of ecological neutral theory is that population size is inversely related to extinction risk. This idea is central to modern biodiversity conservation efforts, which often rely on abundance metrics to partially determine species extinction risk. However, limited empirical st...
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2023
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:6353bac0391344ee8c0a43f032a403b0 2023-06-18T03:43:11+02:00 Abundance does not predict extinction risk in the fossil record of marine plankton Sarah Trubovitz Johan Renaudie David Lazarus Paula J. Noble 2023-05-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.1038/s42003-023-04871-6 https://doaj.org/article/6353bac0391344ee8c0a43f032a403b0 EN eng Nature Portfolio https://doi.org/10.1038/s42003-023-04871-6 https://doaj.org/toc/2399-3642 doi:10.1038/s42003-023-04871-6 2399-3642 https://doaj.org/article/6353bac0391344ee8c0a43f032a403b0 Communications Biology, Vol 6, Iss 1, Pp 1-10 (2023) Biology (General) QH301-705.5 article 2023 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.1038/s42003-023-04871-6 2023-06-04T00:40:26Z Abstract A major premise of ecological neutral theory is that population size is inversely related to extinction risk. This idea is central to modern biodiversity conservation efforts, which often rely on abundance metrics to partially determine species extinction risk. However, limited empirical studies have tested whether extinction is indeed more probable for species with low abundances. Here we use the fossil record of Neogene radiolaria to test the relationship between relative abundance and longevity (time from first to last occurrence). Our dataset includes abundance histories for 189 polycystine radiolarian species from the Southern Ocean, and 101 species from the tropical Pacific. Using linear regression analyses, we show that neither maximum nor average relative abundance are significant predictors of longevity in either oceanographic region. This suggests that neutral theory fails to explain the plankton ecological-evolutionary dynamics we observe. Extrinsic factors are likely more important than neutral dynamics in controlling radiolarian extinction. Article in Journal/Newspaper Southern Ocean Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Pacific Southern Ocean Communications Biology 6 1 |
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Open Polar |
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Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
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ftdoajarticles |
language |
English |
topic |
Biology (General) QH301-705.5 |
spellingShingle |
Biology (General) QH301-705.5 Sarah Trubovitz Johan Renaudie David Lazarus Paula J. Noble Abundance does not predict extinction risk in the fossil record of marine plankton |
topic_facet |
Biology (General) QH301-705.5 |
description |
Abstract A major premise of ecological neutral theory is that population size is inversely related to extinction risk. This idea is central to modern biodiversity conservation efforts, which often rely on abundance metrics to partially determine species extinction risk. However, limited empirical studies have tested whether extinction is indeed more probable for species with low abundances. Here we use the fossil record of Neogene radiolaria to test the relationship between relative abundance and longevity (time from first to last occurrence). Our dataset includes abundance histories for 189 polycystine radiolarian species from the Southern Ocean, and 101 species from the tropical Pacific. Using linear regression analyses, we show that neither maximum nor average relative abundance are significant predictors of longevity in either oceanographic region. This suggests that neutral theory fails to explain the plankton ecological-evolutionary dynamics we observe. Extrinsic factors are likely more important than neutral dynamics in controlling radiolarian extinction. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Sarah Trubovitz Johan Renaudie David Lazarus Paula J. Noble |
author_facet |
Sarah Trubovitz Johan Renaudie David Lazarus Paula J. Noble |
author_sort |
Sarah Trubovitz |
title |
Abundance does not predict extinction risk in the fossil record of marine plankton |
title_short |
Abundance does not predict extinction risk in the fossil record of marine plankton |
title_full |
Abundance does not predict extinction risk in the fossil record of marine plankton |
title_fullStr |
Abundance does not predict extinction risk in the fossil record of marine plankton |
title_full_unstemmed |
Abundance does not predict extinction risk in the fossil record of marine plankton |
title_sort |
abundance does not predict extinction risk in the fossil record of marine plankton |
publisher |
Nature Portfolio |
publishDate |
2023 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.1038/s42003-023-04871-6 https://doaj.org/article/6353bac0391344ee8c0a43f032a403b0 |
geographic |
Pacific Southern Ocean |
geographic_facet |
Pacific Southern Ocean |
genre |
Southern Ocean |
genre_facet |
Southern Ocean |
op_source |
Communications Biology, Vol 6, Iss 1, Pp 1-10 (2023) |
op_relation |
https://doi.org/10.1038/s42003-023-04871-6 https://doaj.org/toc/2399-3642 doi:10.1038/s42003-023-04871-6 2399-3642 https://doaj.org/article/6353bac0391344ee8c0a43f032a403b0 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1038/s42003-023-04871-6 |
container_title |
Communications Biology |
container_volume |
6 |
container_issue |
1 |
_version_ |
1769009474668855296 |