The GRISLI-LSCE contribution to the Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (ISMIP6) – Part 2: Projections of the Antarctic ice sheet evolution by the end of the 21st century
The Antarctic ice sheet's contribution to global sea level rise over the 21st century is of primary societal importance and remains largely uncertain as of yet. In particular, in the recent literature, the contribution of the Antarctic ice sheet by 2100 can be negative (sea level fall) by a few...
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:630debe564b34326b53b0464e9dfa797 2023-05-15T13:44:19+02:00 The GRISLI-LSCE contribution to the Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (ISMIP6) – Part 2: Projections of the Antarctic ice sheet evolution by the end of the 21st century A. Quiquet C. Dumas 2021-02-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-1031-2021 https://doaj.org/article/630debe564b34326b53b0464e9dfa797 EN eng Copernicus Publications https://tc.copernicus.org/articles/15/1031/2021/tc-15-1031-2021.pdf https://doaj.org/toc/1994-0416 https://doaj.org/toc/1994-0424 doi:10.5194/tc-15-1031-2021 1994-0416 1994-0424 https://doaj.org/article/630debe564b34326b53b0464e9dfa797 The Cryosphere, Vol 15, Pp 1031-1052 (2021) Environmental sciences GE1-350 Geology QE1-996.5 article 2021 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-1031-2021 2022-12-31T06:53:44Z The Antarctic ice sheet's contribution to global sea level rise over the 21st century is of primary societal importance and remains largely uncertain as of yet. In particular, in the recent literature, the contribution of the Antarctic ice sheet by 2100 can be negative (sea level fall) by a few centimetres or positive (sea level rise), with some estimates above 1 m. The Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project – phase 6 (ISMIP6) aimed at reducing the uncertainties in the fate of the ice sheets in the future by gathering various ice sheet models in a common framework. Here, we present the GRISLI-LSCE (Grenoble Ice Sheet and Land Ice model of the Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement) contribution to ISMIP6-Antarctica. We show that our model is strongly sensitive to the climate forcing used, with a contribution of the Antarctic ice sheet to global sea level rise by 2100 that ranges from −50 to +150 mm sea level equivalent (SLE). Future oceanic warming leads to a decrease in thickness of the ice shelves, resulting in grounding-line retreat, while increased surface mass balance partially mitigates or even overcompensates the dynamic ice sheet contribution to global sea level rise. Most of the ice sheet changes over the next century are dampened under low-greenhouse-gas-emission scenarios. Uncertainties related to sub-ice-shelf melt rates induce large differences in simulated grounding-line retreat, confirming the importance of this process and its representation in ice sheet models for projections of the Antarctic ice sheet's evolution. Article in Journal/Newspaper Antarc* Antarctic Antarctica Ice Sheet Ice Shelf Ice Shelves The Cryosphere Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Antarctic The Antarctic The Cryosphere 15 2 1031 1052 |
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Open Polar |
collection |
Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
op_collection_id |
ftdoajarticles |
language |
English |
topic |
Environmental sciences GE1-350 Geology QE1-996.5 |
spellingShingle |
Environmental sciences GE1-350 Geology QE1-996.5 A. Quiquet C. Dumas The GRISLI-LSCE contribution to the Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (ISMIP6) – Part 2: Projections of the Antarctic ice sheet evolution by the end of the 21st century |
topic_facet |
Environmental sciences GE1-350 Geology QE1-996.5 |
description |
The Antarctic ice sheet's contribution to global sea level rise over the 21st century is of primary societal importance and remains largely uncertain as of yet. In particular, in the recent literature, the contribution of the Antarctic ice sheet by 2100 can be negative (sea level fall) by a few centimetres or positive (sea level rise), with some estimates above 1 m. The Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project – phase 6 (ISMIP6) aimed at reducing the uncertainties in the fate of the ice sheets in the future by gathering various ice sheet models in a common framework. Here, we present the GRISLI-LSCE (Grenoble Ice Sheet and Land Ice model of the Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement) contribution to ISMIP6-Antarctica. We show that our model is strongly sensitive to the climate forcing used, with a contribution of the Antarctic ice sheet to global sea level rise by 2100 that ranges from −50 to +150 mm sea level equivalent (SLE). Future oceanic warming leads to a decrease in thickness of the ice shelves, resulting in grounding-line retreat, while increased surface mass balance partially mitigates or even overcompensates the dynamic ice sheet contribution to global sea level rise. Most of the ice sheet changes over the next century are dampened under low-greenhouse-gas-emission scenarios. Uncertainties related to sub-ice-shelf melt rates induce large differences in simulated grounding-line retreat, confirming the importance of this process and its representation in ice sheet models for projections of the Antarctic ice sheet's evolution. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
A. Quiquet C. Dumas |
author_facet |
A. Quiquet C. Dumas |
author_sort |
A. Quiquet |
title |
The GRISLI-LSCE contribution to the Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (ISMIP6) – Part 2: Projections of the Antarctic ice sheet evolution by the end of the 21st century |
title_short |
The GRISLI-LSCE contribution to the Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (ISMIP6) – Part 2: Projections of the Antarctic ice sheet evolution by the end of the 21st century |
title_full |
The GRISLI-LSCE contribution to the Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (ISMIP6) – Part 2: Projections of the Antarctic ice sheet evolution by the end of the 21st century |
title_fullStr |
The GRISLI-LSCE contribution to the Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (ISMIP6) – Part 2: Projections of the Antarctic ice sheet evolution by the end of the 21st century |
title_full_unstemmed |
The GRISLI-LSCE contribution to the Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (ISMIP6) – Part 2: Projections of the Antarctic ice sheet evolution by the end of the 21st century |
title_sort |
grisli-lsce contribution to the ice sheet model intercomparison project for phase 6 of the coupled model intercomparison project (ismip6) – part 2: projections of the antarctic ice sheet evolution by the end of the 21st century |
publisher |
Copernicus Publications |
publishDate |
2021 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-1031-2021 https://doaj.org/article/630debe564b34326b53b0464e9dfa797 |
geographic |
Antarctic The Antarctic |
geographic_facet |
Antarctic The Antarctic |
genre |
Antarc* Antarctic Antarctica Ice Sheet Ice Shelf Ice Shelves The Cryosphere |
genre_facet |
Antarc* Antarctic Antarctica Ice Sheet Ice Shelf Ice Shelves The Cryosphere |
op_source |
The Cryosphere, Vol 15, Pp 1031-1052 (2021) |
op_relation |
https://tc.copernicus.org/articles/15/1031/2021/tc-15-1031-2021.pdf https://doaj.org/toc/1994-0416 https://doaj.org/toc/1994-0424 doi:10.5194/tc-15-1031-2021 1994-0416 1994-0424 https://doaj.org/article/630debe564b34326b53b0464e9dfa797 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-1031-2021 |
container_title |
The Cryosphere |
container_volume |
15 |
container_issue |
2 |
container_start_page |
1031 |
op_container_end_page |
1052 |
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1766200239885123584 |