Multi-variable bias correction: application of forest fire risk in present and future climate in Sweden
As the risk of a forest fire is largely influenced by weather, evaluating its tendency under a changing climate becomes important for management and decision making. Currently, biases in climate models make it difficult to realistically estimate the future climate and consequent impact on fire risk....
Published in: | Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences |
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:615b9955c7034c4c8cef5b8b73620b01 2023-05-15T17:44:46+02:00 Multi-variable bias correction: application of forest fire risk in present and future climate in Sweden W. Yang M. Gardelin J. Olsson T. Bosshard 2015-09-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-15-2037-2015 https://doaj.org/article/615b9955c7034c4c8cef5b8b73620b01 EN eng Copernicus Publications http://www.nat-hazards-earth-syst-sci.net/15/2037/2015/nhess-15-2037-2015.pdf https://doaj.org/toc/1561-8633 https://doaj.org/toc/1684-9981 1561-8633 1684-9981 doi:10.5194/nhess-15-2037-2015 https://doaj.org/article/615b9955c7034c4c8cef5b8b73620b01 Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, Vol 15, Iss 9, Pp 2037-2057 (2015) Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering TD1-1066 Geography. Anthropology. Recreation G Environmental sciences GE1-350 Geology QE1-996.5 article 2015 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-15-2037-2015 2022-12-31T14:46:41Z As the risk of a forest fire is largely influenced by weather, evaluating its tendency under a changing climate becomes important for management and decision making. Currently, biases in climate models make it difficult to realistically estimate the future climate and consequent impact on fire risk. A distribution-based scaling (DBS) approach was developed as a post-processing tool that intends to correct systematic biases in climate modelling outputs. In this study, we used two projections, one driven by historical reanalysis (ERA40) and one from a global climate model (ECHAM5) for future projection, both having been dynamically downscaled by a regional climate model (RCA3). The effects of the post-processing tool on relative humidity and wind speed were studied in addition to the primary variables precipitation and temperature. Finally, the Canadian Fire Weather Index system was used to evaluate the influence of changing meteorological conditions on the moisture content in fuel layers and the fire-spread risk. The forest fire risk results using DBS are proven to better reflect risk using observations than that using raw climate outputs. For future periods, southern Sweden is likely to have a higher fire risk than today, whereas northern Sweden will have a lower risk of forest fire. Article in Journal/Newspaper Northern Sweden Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences 15 9 2037 2057 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
op_collection_id |
ftdoajarticles |
language |
English |
topic |
Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering TD1-1066 Geography. Anthropology. Recreation G Environmental sciences GE1-350 Geology QE1-996.5 |
spellingShingle |
Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering TD1-1066 Geography. Anthropology. Recreation G Environmental sciences GE1-350 Geology QE1-996.5 W. Yang M. Gardelin J. Olsson T. Bosshard Multi-variable bias correction: application of forest fire risk in present and future climate in Sweden |
topic_facet |
Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering TD1-1066 Geography. Anthropology. Recreation G Environmental sciences GE1-350 Geology QE1-996.5 |
description |
As the risk of a forest fire is largely influenced by weather, evaluating its tendency under a changing climate becomes important for management and decision making. Currently, biases in climate models make it difficult to realistically estimate the future climate and consequent impact on fire risk. A distribution-based scaling (DBS) approach was developed as a post-processing tool that intends to correct systematic biases in climate modelling outputs. In this study, we used two projections, one driven by historical reanalysis (ERA40) and one from a global climate model (ECHAM5) for future projection, both having been dynamically downscaled by a regional climate model (RCA3). The effects of the post-processing tool on relative humidity and wind speed were studied in addition to the primary variables precipitation and temperature. Finally, the Canadian Fire Weather Index system was used to evaluate the influence of changing meteorological conditions on the moisture content in fuel layers and the fire-spread risk. The forest fire risk results using DBS are proven to better reflect risk using observations than that using raw climate outputs. For future periods, southern Sweden is likely to have a higher fire risk than today, whereas northern Sweden will have a lower risk of forest fire. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
W. Yang M. Gardelin J. Olsson T. Bosshard |
author_facet |
W. Yang M. Gardelin J. Olsson T. Bosshard |
author_sort |
W. Yang |
title |
Multi-variable bias correction: application of forest fire risk in present and future climate in Sweden |
title_short |
Multi-variable bias correction: application of forest fire risk in present and future climate in Sweden |
title_full |
Multi-variable bias correction: application of forest fire risk in present and future climate in Sweden |
title_fullStr |
Multi-variable bias correction: application of forest fire risk in present and future climate in Sweden |
title_full_unstemmed |
Multi-variable bias correction: application of forest fire risk in present and future climate in Sweden |
title_sort |
multi-variable bias correction: application of forest fire risk in present and future climate in sweden |
publisher |
Copernicus Publications |
publishDate |
2015 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-15-2037-2015 https://doaj.org/article/615b9955c7034c4c8cef5b8b73620b01 |
genre |
Northern Sweden |
genre_facet |
Northern Sweden |
op_source |
Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, Vol 15, Iss 9, Pp 2037-2057 (2015) |
op_relation |
http://www.nat-hazards-earth-syst-sci.net/15/2037/2015/nhess-15-2037-2015.pdf https://doaj.org/toc/1561-8633 https://doaj.org/toc/1684-9981 1561-8633 1684-9981 doi:10.5194/nhess-15-2037-2015 https://doaj.org/article/615b9955c7034c4c8cef5b8b73620b01 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-15-2037-2015 |
container_title |
Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences |
container_volume |
15 |
container_issue |
9 |
container_start_page |
2037 |
op_container_end_page |
2057 |
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1766147056385130496 |