Modelling seasonality of Lassa fever incidences and vector dynamics in Nigeria.
Lassa fever (Lf) is a viral haemorrhagic disease endemic to West Africa and is caused by the Lassa mammarenavirus. The rodent Mastomys natalensis serves as the primary reservoir and its ecology and behaviour have been linked to the distinct spatial and temporal patterns in the incidence of Lf. Niger...
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:6145d2c9fc974bfa99b48a8ad3027bde 2024-01-14T10:04:50+01:00 Modelling seasonality of Lassa fever incidences and vector dynamics in Nigeria. James Q McKendrick Warren S D Tennant Michael J Tildesley 2023-11-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0011543 https://doaj.org/article/6145d2c9fc974bfa99b48a8ad3027bde EN eng Public Library of Science (PLoS) https://journals.plos.org/plosntds/article/file?id=10.1371/journal.pntd.0011543&type=printable https://doaj.org/toc/1935-2727 https://doaj.org/toc/1935-2735 1935-2727 1935-2735 doi:10.1371/journal.pntd.0011543 https://doaj.org/article/6145d2c9fc974bfa99b48a8ad3027bde PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases, Vol 17, Iss 11, p e0011543 (2023) Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine RC955-962 Public aspects of medicine RA1-1270 article 2023 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0011543 2023-12-17T01:44:39Z Lassa fever (Lf) is a viral haemorrhagic disease endemic to West Africa and is caused by the Lassa mammarenavirus. The rodent Mastomys natalensis serves as the primary reservoir and its ecology and behaviour have been linked to the distinct spatial and temporal patterns in the incidence of Lf. Nigeria has experienced an unprecedented epidemic that lasted from January until April of 2018, which has been followed by subsequent epidemics of Lf in the same period every year since. While previous research has modelled the case seasonality within Nigeria, this did not capture the seasonal variation in the reproduction of the zoonotic reservoir and its effect on case numbers. To this end, we introduce an approximate Bayesian computation scheme to fit our model to the case data from 2018-2020 supplied by the NCDC. In this study we used a periodically forced seasonal nonautonomous system of ordinary differential equations as a vector model to demonstrate that the population dynamics of the rodent reservoir may be responsible for the spikes in the number of observed cases in humans. The results show that in December through to March, spillover from the zoonotic reservoir drastically increases and spreads the virus to the people of Nigeria. Therefore to effectively combat Lf, attention and efforts should be concentrated during this period. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Arctic PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases 17 11 e0011543 |
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Open Polar |
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Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
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ftdoajarticles |
language |
English |
topic |
Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine RC955-962 Public aspects of medicine RA1-1270 |
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Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine RC955-962 Public aspects of medicine RA1-1270 James Q McKendrick Warren S D Tennant Michael J Tildesley Modelling seasonality of Lassa fever incidences and vector dynamics in Nigeria. |
topic_facet |
Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine RC955-962 Public aspects of medicine RA1-1270 |
description |
Lassa fever (Lf) is a viral haemorrhagic disease endemic to West Africa and is caused by the Lassa mammarenavirus. The rodent Mastomys natalensis serves as the primary reservoir and its ecology and behaviour have been linked to the distinct spatial and temporal patterns in the incidence of Lf. Nigeria has experienced an unprecedented epidemic that lasted from January until April of 2018, which has been followed by subsequent epidemics of Lf in the same period every year since. While previous research has modelled the case seasonality within Nigeria, this did not capture the seasonal variation in the reproduction of the zoonotic reservoir and its effect on case numbers. To this end, we introduce an approximate Bayesian computation scheme to fit our model to the case data from 2018-2020 supplied by the NCDC. In this study we used a periodically forced seasonal nonautonomous system of ordinary differential equations as a vector model to demonstrate that the population dynamics of the rodent reservoir may be responsible for the spikes in the number of observed cases in humans. The results show that in December through to March, spillover from the zoonotic reservoir drastically increases and spreads the virus to the people of Nigeria. Therefore to effectively combat Lf, attention and efforts should be concentrated during this period. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
James Q McKendrick Warren S D Tennant Michael J Tildesley |
author_facet |
James Q McKendrick Warren S D Tennant Michael J Tildesley |
author_sort |
James Q McKendrick |
title |
Modelling seasonality of Lassa fever incidences and vector dynamics in Nigeria. |
title_short |
Modelling seasonality of Lassa fever incidences and vector dynamics in Nigeria. |
title_full |
Modelling seasonality of Lassa fever incidences and vector dynamics in Nigeria. |
title_fullStr |
Modelling seasonality of Lassa fever incidences and vector dynamics in Nigeria. |
title_full_unstemmed |
Modelling seasonality of Lassa fever incidences and vector dynamics in Nigeria. |
title_sort |
modelling seasonality of lassa fever incidences and vector dynamics in nigeria. |
publisher |
Public Library of Science (PLoS) |
publishDate |
2023 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0011543 https://doaj.org/article/6145d2c9fc974bfa99b48a8ad3027bde |
geographic |
Arctic |
geographic_facet |
Arctic |
genre |
Arctic |
genre_facet |
Arctic |
op_source |
PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases, Vol 17, Iss 11, p e0011543 (2023) |
op_relation |
https://journals.plos.org/plosntds/article/file?id=10.1371/journal.pntd.0011543&type=printable https://doaj.org/toc/1935-2727 https://doaj.org/toc/1935-2735 1935-2727 1935-2735 doi:10.1371/journal.pntd.0011543 https://doaj.org/article/6145d2c9fc974bfa99b48a8ad3027bde |
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https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0011543 |
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PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases |
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11 |
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