Near future changes to rain-on-snow events in Norway
Rain-on-snow (ROS) events occur primarily in cold climates such as high latitudes and high elevations where they pose a considerable threat to nature and society. The frequency and intensity of ROS events are expected to change in the future, but little is known about how they will change in the nea...
Published in: | Environmental Research Letters |
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2021
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Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/abfdeb https://doaj.org/article/60ac7c1264c44fd1b5d3df11d8c035b2 |
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:60ac7c1264c44fd1b5d3df11d8c035b2 2023-09-05T13:21:39+02:00 Near future changes to rain-on-snow events in Norway P A Mooney L Li 2021-01-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/abfdeb https://doaj.org/article/60ac7c1264c44fd1b5d3df11d8c035b2 EN eng IOP Publishing https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/abfdeb https://doaj.org/toc/1748-9326 doi:10.1088/1748-9326/abfdeb 1748-9326 https://doaj.org/article/60ac7c1264c44fd1b5d3df11d8c035b2 Environmental Research Letters, Vol 16, Iss 6, p 064039 (2021) rain-on-snow Norway ROS climate change extreme events high latitudes Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering TD1-1066 Environmental sciences GE1-350 Science Q Physics QC1-999 article 2021 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/abfdeb 2023-08-13T00:37:11Z Rain-on-snow (ROS) events occur primarily in cold climates such as high latitudes and high elevations where they pose a considerable threat to nature and society. The frequency and intensity of ROS events are expected to change in the future, but little is known about how they will change in the near future (mid-century) and their link to hydrological extremes (e.g. 95% high flows). Here we use kilometre-scale regional climate simulations over Norway, a ROS ‘hot spot’, to determine potential changes in ROS frequency and intensity in the middle of the century under RCP8.5. Analysis shows that ROS will intensify in the future and ROS frequency will increase at high elevations and occur less frequently at lower elevations. Furthermore, high-flows that coincide with ROS events are expected to increase in winter and autumn. In general, this study shows that ROS changes in winter and autumn are related to changes in rain while ROS changes in spring and summer are related to changes in the snowpack. Since rainfall in Norway is dominated by large scale processes in autumn and winter (e.g. North Atlantic storm tracks), it is likely that future changes in ROS climatology in autumn and winter are related to changes in the large scale atmospheric system. This contrasts with spring and summer when local-scale processes drive snowmelt and hence future changes to ROS in those seasons. Article in Journal/Newspaper North Atlantic Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Norway Environmental Research Letters 16 6 064039 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
op_collection_id |
ftdoajarticles |
language |
English |
topic |
rain-on-snow Norway ROS climate change extreme events high latitudes Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering TD1-1066 Environmental sciences GE1-350 Science Q Physics QC1-999 |
spellingShingle |
rain-on-snow Norway ROS climate change extreme events high latitudes Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering TD1-1066 Environmental sciences GE1-350 Science Q Physics QC1-999 P A Mooney L Li Near future changes to rain-on-snow events in Norway |
topic_facet |
rain-on-snow Norway ROS climate change extreme events high latitudes Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering TD1-1066 Environmental sciences GE1-350 Science Q Physics QC1-999 |
description |
Rain-on-snow (ROS) events occur primarily in cold climates such as high latitudes and high elevations where they pose a considerable threat to nature and society. The frequency and intensity of ROS events are expected to change in the future, but little is known about how they will change in the near future (mid-century) and their link to hydrological extremes (e.g. 95% high flows). Here we use kilometre-scale regional climate simulations over Norway, a ROS ‘hot spot’, to determine potential changes in ROS frequency and intensity in the middle of the century under RCP8.5. Analysis shows that ROS will intensify in the future and ROS frequency will increase at high elevations and occur less frequently at lower elevations. Furthermore, high-flows that coincide with ROS events are expected to increase in winter and autumn. In general, this study shows that ROS changes in winter and autumn are related to changes in rain while ROS changes in spring and summer are related to changes in the snowpack. Since rainfall in Norway is dominated by large scale processes in autumn and winter (e.g. North Atlantic storm tracks), it is likely that future changes in ROS climatology in autumn and winter are related to changes in the large scale atmospheric system. This contrasts with spring and summer when local-scale processes drive snowmelt and hence future changes to ROS in those seasons. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
P A Mooney L Li |
author_facet |
P A Mooney L Li |
author_sort |
P A Mooney |
title |
Near future changes to rain-on-snow events in Norway |
title_short |
Near future changes to rain-on-snow events in Norway |
title_full |
Near future changes to rain-on-snow events in Norway |
title_fullStr |
Near future changes to rain-on-snow events in Norway |
title_full_unstemmed |
Near future changes to rain-on-snow events in Norway |
title_sort |
near future changes to rain-on-snow events in norway |
publisher |
IOP Publishing |
publishDate |
2021 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/abfdeb https://doaj.org/article/60ac7c1264c44fd1b5d3df11d8c035b2 |
geographic |
Norway |
geographic_facet |
Norway |
genre |
North Atlantic |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic |
op_source |
Environmental Research Letters, Vol 16, Iss 6, p 064039 (2021) |
op_relation |
https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/abfdeb https://doaj.org/toc/1748-9326 doi:10.1088/1748-9326/abfdeb 1748-9326 https://doaj.org/article/60ac7c1264c44fd1b5d3df11d8c035b2 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/abfdeb |
container_title |
Environmental Research Letters |
container_volume |
16 |
container_issue |
6 |
container_start_page |
064039 |
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1776202248062238720 |