Assessment of Global Ocean Biogeochemistry Models for Ocean Carbon Sink Estimates in RECCAP2 and Recommendations for Future Studies
Abstract The ocean is a major carbon sink and takes up 25%–30% of the anthropogenically emitted CO2. A state‐of‐the‐art method to quantify this sink are global ocean biogeochemistry models (GOBMs), but their simulated CO2 uptake differs between models and is systematically lower than estimates based...
Published in: | Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems |
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American Geophysical Union (AGU)
2024
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Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1029/2023MS003840 https://doaj.org/article/609e64f9a8084a4880e86c000e95a638 |
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:609e64f9a8084a4880e86c000e95a638 2024-09-09T20:10:08+00:00 Assessment of Global Ocean Biogeochemistry Models for Ocean Carbon Sink Estimates in RECCAP2 and Recommendations for Future Studies Jens Terhaar Nadine Goris Jens D. Müller Tim DeVries Nicolas Gruber Judith Hauck Fiz F. Perez Roland Séférian 2024-03-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.1029/2023MS003840 https://doaj.org/article/609e64f9a8084a4880e86c000e95a638 EN eng American Geophysical Union (AGU) https://doi.org/10.1029/2023MS003840 https://doaj.org/toc/1942-2466 1942-2466 doi:10.1029/2023MS003840 https://doaj.org/article/609e64f9a8084a4880e86c000e95a638 Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, Vol 16, Iss 3, Pp n/a-n/a (2024) ocean biogeochemical modeling ocean carbon sink carbon cycle Physical geography GB3-5030 Oceanography GC1-1581 article 2024 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.1029/2023MS003840 2024-08-05T17:49:40Z Abstract The ocean is a major carbon sink and takes up 25%–30% of the anthropogenically emitted CO2. A state‐of‐the‐art method to quantify this sink are global ocean biogeochemistry models (GOBMs), but their simulated CO2 uptake differs between models and is systematically lower than estimates based on statistical methods using surface ocean pCO2 and interior ocean measurements. Here, we provide an in‐depth evaluation of ocean carbon sink estimates from 1980 to 2018 from a GOBM ensemble. As sources of inter‐model differences and ensemble‐mean biases our study identifies (a) the model setup, such as the length of the spin‐up, the starting date of the simulation, and carbon fluxes from rivers and into sediments, (b) the simulated ocean circulation, such as Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation and Southern Ocean mode and intermediate water formation, and (c) the simulated oceanic buffer capacity. Our analysis suggests that a late starting date and biases in the ocean circulation cause a too low anthropogenic CO2 uptake across the GOBM ensemble. Surface ocean biogeochemistry biases might also cause simulated anthropogenic fluxes to be too low, but the current setup prevents a robust assessment. For simulations of the ocean carbon sink, we recommend in the short‐term to (a) start simulations at a common date before the industrialization and the associated atmospheric CO2 increase, (b) conduct a sufficiently long spin‐up such that the GOBMs reach steady‐state, and (c) provide key metrics for circulation, biogeochemistry, and the land‐ocean interface. In the long‐term, we recommend improving the representation of these metrics in the GOBMs. Article in Journal/Newspaper Southern Ocean Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Southern Ocean Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems 16 3 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
op_collection_id |
ftdoajarticles |
language |
English |
topic |
ocean biogeochemical modeling ocean carbon sink carbon cycle Physical geography GB3-5030 Oceanography GC1-1581 |
spellingShingle |
ocean biogeochemical modeling ocean carbon sink carbon cycle Physical geography GB3-5030 Oceanography GC1-1581 Jens Terhaar Nadine Goris Jens D. Müller Tim DeVries Nicolas Gruber Judith Hauck Fiz F. Perez Roland Séférian Assessment of Global Ocean Biogeochemistry Models for Ocean Carbon Sink Estimates in RECCAP2 and Recommendations for Future Studies |
topic_facet |
ocean biogeochemical modeling ocean carbon sink carbon cycle Physical geography GB3-5030 Oceanography GC1-1581 |
description |
Abstract The ocean is a major carbon sink and takes up 25%–30% of the anthropogenically emitted CO2. A state‐of‐the‐art method to quantify this sink are global ocean biogeochemistry models (GOBMs), but their simulated CO2 uptake differs between models and is systematically lower than estimates based on statistical methods using surface ocean pCO2 and interior ocean measurements. Here, we provide an in‐depth evaluation of ocean carbon sink estimates from 1980 to 2018 from a GOBM ensemble. As sources of inter‐model differences and ensemble‐mean biases our study identifies (a) the model setup, such as the length of the spin‐up, the starting date of the simulation, and carbon fluxes from rivers and into sediments, (b) the simulated ocean circulation, such as Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation and Southern Ocean mode and intermediate water formation, and (c) the simulated oceanic buffer capacity. Our analysis suggests that a late starting date and biases in the ocean circulation cause a too low anthropogenic CO2 uptake across the GOBM ensemble. Surface ocean biogeochemistry biases might also cause simulated anthropogenic fluxes to be too low, but the current setup prevents a robust assessment. For simulations of the ocean carbon sink, we recommend in the short‐term to (a) start simulations at a common date before the industrialization and the associated atmospheric CO2 increase, (b) conduct a sufficiently long spin‐up such that the GOBMs reach steady‐state, and (c) provide key metrics for circulation, biogeochemistry, and the land‐ocean interface. In the long‐term, we recommend improving the representation of these metrics in the GOBMs. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Jens Terhaar Nadine Goris Jens D. Müller Tim DeVries Nicolas Gruber Judith Hauck Fiz F. Perez Roland Séférian |
author_facet |
Jens Terhaar Nadine Goris Jens D. Müller Tim DeVries Nicolas Gruber Judith Hauck Fiz F. Perez Roland Séférian |
author_sort |
Jens Terhaar |
title |
Assessment of Global Ocean Biogeochemistry Models for Ocean Carbon Sink Estimates in RECCAP2 and Recommendations for Future Studies |
title_short |
Assessment of Global Ocean Biogeochemistry Models for Ocean Carbon Sink Estimates in RECCAP2 and Recommendations for Future Studies |
title_full |
Assessment of Global Ocean Biogeochemistry Models for Ocean Carbon Sink Estimates in RECCAP2 and Recommendations for Future Studies |
title_fullStr |
Assessment of Global Ocean Biogeochemistry Models for Ocean Carbon Sink Estimates in RECCAP2 and Recommendations for Future Studies |
title_full_unstemmed |
Assessment of Global Ocean Biogeochemistry Models for Ocean Carbon Sink Estimates in RECCAP2 and Recommendations for Future Studies |
title_sort |
assessment of global ocean biogeochemistry models for ocean carbon sink estimates in reccap2 and recommendations for future studies |
publisher |
American Geophysical Union (AGU) |
publishDate |
2024 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.1029/2023MS003840 https://doaj.org/article/609e64f9a8084a4880e86c000e95a638 |
geographic |
Southern Ocean |
geographic_facet |
Southern Ocean |
genre |
Southern Ocean |
genre_facet |
Southern Ocean |
op_source |
Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, Vol 16, Iss 3, Pp n/a-n/a (2024) |
op_relation |
https://doi.org/10.1029/2023MS003840 https://doaj.org/toc/1942-2466 1942-2466 doi:10.1029/2023MS003840 https://doaj.org/article/609e64f9a8084a4880e86c000e95a638 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1029/2023MS003840 |
container_title |
Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems |
container_volume |
16 |
container_issue |
3 |
_version_ |
1809944512350388224 |