Climate bifurcations in a Schwarzschild equation model of the Arctic atmosphere
A column model of the Arctic atmosphere is developed including the nonlinear positive feedback responses of surface albedo and water vapour to temperature. The atmosphere is treated as a grey gas and the flux of longwave radiation is governed by the two-stream Schwarzschild equations. Water vapour c...
Published in: | Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics |
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:607806a19d4d4ffabf9af6afb5ecb808 2023-05-15T13:11:00+02:00 Climate bifurcations in a Schwarzschild equation model of the Arctic atmosphere K. L. Kypke W. F. Langford G. M. Lewis A. R. Willms 2022-06-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-29-219-2022 https://doaj.org/article/607806a19d4d4ffabf9af6afb5ecb808 EN eng Copernicus Publications https://npg.copernicus.org/articles/29/219/2022/npg-29-219-2022.pdf https://doaj.org/toc/1023-5809 https://doaj.org/toc/1607-7946 doi:10.5194/npg-29-219-2022 1023-5809 1607-7946 https://doaj.org/article/607806a19d4d4ffabf9af6afb5ecb808 Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics, Vol 29, Pp 219-239 (2022) Science Q Physics QC1-999 Geophysics. Cosmic physics QC801-809 article 2022 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-29-219-2022 2022-12-30T23:15:20Z A column model of the Arctic atmosphere is developed including the nonlinear positive feedback responses of surface albedo and water vapour to temperature. The atmosphere is treated as a grey gas and the flux of longwave radiation is governed by the two-stream Schwarzschild equations. Water vapour concentration is determined by the Clausius–Clapeyron equation. Representative concentration pathways (RCPs) are used to model carbon dioxide concentrations into the future. The resulting 9D two-point boundary value problem is solved under various RCPs and the solutions analysed. The model predicts that under the highest carbon pathway, the Arctic climate will undergo an irreversible bifurcation to a warm steady state, which would correspond to annually ice-free conditions. Under the lowest carbon pathway, corresponding to very aggressive carbon emission reductions, the model exhibits only a mild increase in Arctic temperatures. Under the two intermediate carbon pathways, temperatures increase more substantially, and the system enters a region of bistability where external perturbations could possibly cause an irreversible switch to a warm, ice-free state. Article in Journal/Newspaper albedo Arctic Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Arctic Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics 29 2 219 239 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
op_collection_id |
ftdoajarticles |
language |
English |
topic |
Science Q Physics QC1-999 Geophysics. Cosmic physics QC801-809 |
spellingShingle |
Science Q Physics QC1-999 Geophysics. Cosmic physics QC801-809 K. L. Kypke W. F. Langford G. M. Lewis A. R. Willms Climate bifurcations in a Schwarzschild equation model of the Arctic atmosphere |
topic_facet |
Science Q Physics QC1-999 Geophysics. Cosmic physics QC801-809 |
description |
A column model of the Arctic atmosphere is developed including the nonlinear positive feedback responses of surface albedo and water vapour to temperature. The atmosphere is treated as a grey gas and the flux of longwave radiation is governed by the two-stream Schwarzschild equations. Water vapour concentration is determined by the Clausius–Clapeyron equation. Representative concentration pathways (RCPs) are used to model carbon dioxide concentrations into the future. The resulting 9D two-point boundary value problem is solved under various RCPs and the solutions analysed. The model predicts that under the highest carbon pathway, the Arctic climate will undergo an irreversible bifurcation to a warm steady state, which would correspond to annually ice-free conditions. Under the lowest carbon pathway, corresponding to very aggressive carbon emission reductions, the model exhibits only a mild increase in Arctic temperatures. Under the two intermediate carbon pathways, temperatures increase more substantially, and the system enters a region of bistability where external perturbations could possibly cause an irreversible switch to a warm, ice-free state. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
K. L. Kypke W. F. Langford G. M. Lewis A. R. Willms |
author_facet |
K. L. Kypke W. F. Langford G. M. Lewis A. R. Willms |
author_sort |
K. L. Kypke |
title |
Climate bifurcations in a Schwarzschild equation model of the Arctic atmosphere |
title_short |
Climate bifurcations in a Schwarzschild equation model of the Arctic atmosphere |
title_full |
Climate bifurcations in a Schwarzschild equation model of the Arctic atmosphere |
title_fullStr |
Climate bifurcations in a Schwarzschild equation model of the Arctic atmosphere |
title_full_unstemmed |
Climate bifurcations in a Schwarzschild equation model of the Arctic atmosphere |
title_sort |
climate bifurcations in a schwarzschild equation model of the arctic atmosphere |
publisher |
Copernicus Publications |
publishDate |
2022 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-29-219-2022 https://doaj.org/article/607806a19d4d4ffabf9af6afb5ecb808 |
geographic |
Arctic |
geographic_facet |
Arctic |
genre |
albedo Arctic |
genre_facet |
albedo Arctic |
op_source |
Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics, Vol 29, Pp 219-239 (2022) |
op_relation |
https://npg.copernicus.org/articles/29/219/2022/npg-29-219-2022.pdf https://doaj.org/toc/1023-5809 https://doaj.org/toc/1607-7946 doi:10.5194/npg-29-219-2022 1023-5809 1607-7946 https://doaj.org/article/607806a19d4d4ffabf9af6afb5ecb808 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-29-219-2022 |
container_title |
Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics |
container_volume |
29 |
container_issue |
2 |
container_start_page |
219 |
op_container_end_page |
239 |
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1766245567910903808 |