Modeling dynamic introduction of Chikungunya virus in the United States.
Chikungunya is a mosquito-borne viral infection of humans that previously was confined to regions in central Africa. However, during this century, the virus has shown surprising potential for geographic expansion as it invaded other countries including more temperate regions. With no vaccine and no...
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:60464bc77f5a4f82b0069a463625f137 2023-05-15T15:16:31+02:00 Modeling dynamic introduction of Chikungunya virus in the United States. Diego Ruiz-Moreno Irma Sanchez Vargas Ken E Olson Laura C Harrington 2012-01-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0001918 https://doaj.org/article/60464bc77f5a4f82b0069a463625f137 EN eng Public Library of Science (PLoS) http://europepmc.org/articles/PMC3510155?pdf=render https://doaj.org/toc/1935-2727 https://doaj.org/toc/1935-2735 1935-2727 1935-2735 doi:10.1371/journal.pntd.0001918 https://doaj.org/article/60464bc77f5a4f82b0069a463625f137 PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases, Vol 6, Iss 11, p e1918 (2012) Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine RC955-962 Public aspects of medicine RA1-1270 article 2012 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0001918 2022-12-31T00:20:03Z Chikungunya is a mosquito-borne viral infection of humans that previously was confined to regions in central Africa. However, during this century, the virus has shown surprising potential for geographic expansion as it invaded other countries including more temperate regions. With no vaccine and no specific treatment, the main control strategy for Chikungunya remains preventive control of mosquito populations. In consideration for the risk of Chikungunya introduction to the US, we developed a model for disease introduction based on virus introduction by one individual. Our study combines a climate-based mosquito population dynamics stochastic model with an epidemiological model to identify temporal windows that have epidemic risk. We ran this model with temperature data from different locations to study the geographic sensitivity of epidemic potential. We found that in locations with marked seasonal variation in temperature there also was a season of epidemic risk matching the period of the year in which mosquito populations survive and grow. In these locations controlling mosquito population sizes might be an efficient strategy. But, in other locations where the temperature supports mosquito development all year the epidemic risk is high and (practically) constant. In these locations, mosquito population control alone might not be an efficient disease control strategy and other approaches should be implemented to complement it. Our results strongly suggest that, in the event of an introduction and establishment of Chikungunya in the US, endemic and epidemic regions would emerge initially, primarily defined by environmental factors controlling annual mosquito population cycles. These regions should be identified to plan different intervention measures. In addition, reducing vector: human ratios can lower the probability and magnitude of outbreaks for regions with strong seasonal temperature patterns. This is the first model to consider Chikungunya risk in the US and can be applied to other vector borne diseases. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Arctic PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases 6 11 e1918 |
institution |
Open Polar |
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Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
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English |
topic |
Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine RC955-962 Public aspects of medicine RA1-1270 |
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Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine RC955-962 Public aspects of medicine RA1-1270 Diego Ruiz-Moreno Irma Sanchez Vargas Ken E Olson Laura C Harrington Modeling dynamic introduction of Chikungunya virus in the United States. |
topic_facet |
Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine RC955-962 Public aspects of medicine RA1-1270 |
description |
Chikungunya is a mosquito-borne viral infection of humans that previously was confined to regions in central Africa. However, during this century, the virus has shown surprising potential for geographic expansion as it invaded other countries including more temperate regions. With no vaccine and no specific treatment, the main control strategy for Chikungunya remains preventive control of mosquito populations. In consideration for the risk of Chikungunya introduction to the US, we developed a model for disease introduction based on virus introduction by one individual. Our study combines a climate-based mosquito population dynamics stochastic model with an epidemiological model to identify temporal windows that have epidemic risk. We ran this model with temperature data from different locations to study the geographic sensitivity of epidemic potential. We found that in locations with marked seasonal variation in temperature there also was a season of epidemic risk matching the period of the year in which mosquito populations survive and grow. In these locations controlling mosquito population sizes might be an efficient strategy. But, in other locations where the temperature supports mosquito development all year the epidemic risk is high and (practically) constant. In these locations, mosquito population control alone might not be an efficient disease control strategy and other approaches should be implemented to complement it. Our results strongly suggest that, in the event of an introduction and establishment of Chikungunya in the US, endemic and epidemic regions would emerge initially, primarily defined by environmental factors controlling annual mosquito population cycles. These regions should be identified to plan different intervention measures. In addition, reducing vector: human ratios can lower the probability and magnitude of outbreaks for regions with strong seasonal temperature patterns. This is the first model to consider Chikungunya risk in the US and can be applied to other vector borne diseases. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Diego Ruiz-Moreno Irma Sanchez Vargas Ken E Olson Laura C Harrington |
author_facet |
Diego Ruiz-Moreno Irma Sanchez Vargas Ken E Olson Laura C Harrington |
author_sort |
Diego Ruiz-Moreno |
title |
Modeling dynamic introduction of Chikungunya virus in the United States. |
title_short |
Modeling dynamic introduction of Chikungunya virus in the United States. |
title_full |
Modeling dynamic introduction of Chikungunya virus in the United States. |
title_fullStr |
Modeling dynamic introduction of Chikungunya virus in the United States. |
title_full_unstemmed |
Modeling dynamic introduction of Chikungunya virus in the United States. |
title_sort |
modeling dynamic introduction of chikungunya virus in the united states. |
publisher |
Public Library of Science (PLoS) |
publishDate |
2012 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0001918 https://doaj.org/article/60464bc77f5a4f82b0069a463625f137 |
geographic |
Arctic |
geographic_facet |
Arctic |
genre |
Arctic |
genre_facet |
Arctic |
op_source |
PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases, Vol 6, Iss 11, p e1918 (2012) |
op_relation |
http://europepmc.org/articles/PMC3510155?pdf=render https://doaj.org/toc/1935-2727 https://doaj.org/toc/1935-2735 1935-2727 1935-2735 doi:10.1371/journal.pntd.0001918 https://doaj.org/article/60464bc77f5a4f82b0069a463625f137 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0001918 |
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PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases |
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6 |
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11 |
container_start_page |
e1918 |
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1766346810265174016 |