Insights into the vulnerability of Antarctic glaciers from the ISMIP6 ice sheet model ensemble and associated uncertainty
The Antarctic Ice Sheet represents the largest source of uncertainty in future sea level rise projections, with a contribution to sea level by 2100 ranging from −5 to 43 cm of sea level equivalent under high carbon emission scenarios estimated by the recent Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison for CMIP6...
Published in: | The Cryosphere |
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2023
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Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-5197-2023 https://doaj.org/article/602d0106f5dc44e2a4a46926008676ae |
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:602d0106f5dc44e2a4a46926008676ae 2024-01-07T09:38:45+01:00 Insights into the vulnerability of Antarctic glaciers from the ISMIP6 ice sheet model ensemble and associated uncertainty H. Seroussi V. Verjans S. Nowicki A. J. Payne H. Goelzer W. H. Lipscomb A. Abe-Ouchi C. Agosta T. Albrecht X. Asay-Davis A. Barthel R. Calov R. Cullather C. Dumas B. K. Galton-Fenzi R. Gladstone N. R. Golledge J. M. Gregory R. Greve T. Hattermann M. J. Hoffman A. Humbert P. Huybrechts N. C. Jourdain T. Kleiner E. Larour G. R. Leguy D. P. Lowry C. M. Little M. Morlighem F. Pattyn T. Pelle S. F. Price A. Quiquet R. Reese N.-J. Schlegel A. Shepherd E. Simon R. S. Smith F. Straneo S. Sun L. D. Trusel J. Van Breedam P. Van Katwyk R. S. W. van de Wal R. Winkelmann C. Zhao T. Zhang T. Zwinger 2023-12-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-5197-2023 https://doaj.org/article/602d0106f5dc44e2a4a46926008676ae EN eng Copernicus Publications https://tc.copernicus.org/articles/17/5197/2023/tc-17-5197-2023.pdf https://doaj.org/toc/1994-0416 https://doaj.org/toc/1994-0424 doi:10.5194/tc-17-5197-2023 1994-0416 1994-0424 https://doaj.org/article/602d0106f5dc44e2a4a46926008676ae The Cryosphere, Vol 17, Pp 5197-5217 (2023) Environmental sciences GE1-350 Geology QE1-996.5 article 2023 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-5197-2023 2023-12-10T01:38:17Z The Antarctic Ice Sheet represents the largest source of uncertainty in future sea level rise projections, with a contribution to sea level by 2100 ranging from −5 to 43 cm of sea level equivalent under high carbon emission scenarios estimated by the recent Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison for CMIP6 (ISMIP6). ISMIP6 highlighted the different behaviors of the East and West Antarctic ice sheets, as well as the possible role of increased surface mass balance in offsetting the dynamic ice loss in response to changing oceanic conditions in ice shelf cavities. However, the detailed contribution of individual glaciers, as well as the partitioning of uncertainty associated with this ensemble, have not yet been investigated. Here, we analyze the ISMIP6 results for high carbon emission scenarios, focusing on key glaciers around the Antarctic Ice Sheet, and we quantify their projected dynamic mass loss, defined here as mass loss through increased ice discharge into the ocean in response to changing oceanic conditions. We highlight glaciers contributing the most to sea level rise, as well as their vulnerability to changes in oceanic conditions. We then investigate the different sources of uncertainty and their relative role in projections, for the entire continent and for key individual glaciers. We show that, in addition to Thwaites and Pine Island glaciers in West Antarctica, Totten and Moscow University glaciers in East Antarctica present comparable future dynamic mass loss and high sensitivity to ice shelf basal melt. The overall uncertainty in additional dynamic mass loss in response to changing oceanic conditions, compared to a scenario with constant oceanic conditions, is dominated by the choice of ice sheet model, accounting for 52 % of the total uncertainty of the Antarctic dynamic mass loss in 2100. Its relative role for the most dynamic glaciers varies between 14 % for MacAyeal and Whillans ice streams and 56 % for Pine Island Glacier at the end of the century. The uncertainty associated with the choice of climate ... Article in Journal/Newspaper Antarc* Antarctic Antarctica East Antarctica Ice Sheet Ice Shelf Pine Island Pine Island Glacier The Cryosphere West Antarctica Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Antarctic East Antarctica Pine Island Glacier ENVELOPE(-101.000,-101.000,-75.000,-75.000) The Antarctic West Antarctica Whillans ENVELOPE(-64.250,-64.250,-84.450,-84.450) The Cryosphere 17 12 5197 5217 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
op_collection_id |
ftdoajarticles |
language |
English |
topic |
Environmental sciences GE1-350 Geology QE1-996.5 |
spellingShingle |
Environmental sciences GE1-350 Geology QE1-996.5 H. Seroussi V. Verjans S. Nowicki A. J. Payne H. Goelzer W. H. Lipscomb A. Abe-Ouchi C. Agosta T. Albrecht X. Asay-Davis A. Barthel R. Calov R. Cullather C. Dumas B. K. Galton-Fenzi R. Gladstone N. R. Golledge J. M. Gregory R. Greve T. Hattermann M. J. Hoffman A. Humbert P. Huybrechts N. C. Jourdain T. Kleiner E. Larour G. R. Leguy D. P. Lowry C. M. Little M. Morlighem F. Pattyn T. Pelle S. F. Price A. Quiquet R. Reese N.-J. Schlegel A. Shepherd E. Simon R. S. Smith F. Straneo S. Sun L. D. Trusel J. Van Breedam P. Van Katwyk R. S. W. van de Wal R. Winkelmann C. Zhao T. Zhang T. Zwinger Insights into the vulnerability of Antarctic glaciers from the ISMIP6 ice sheet model ensemble and associated uncertainty |
topic_facet |
Environmental sciences GE1-350 Geology QE1-996.5 |
description |
The Antarctic Ice Sheet represents the largest source of uncertainty in future sea level rise projections, with a contribution to sea level by 2100 ranging from −5 to 43 cm of sea level equivalent under high carbon emission scenarios estimated by the recent Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison for CMIP6 (ISMIP6). ISMIP6 highlighted the different behaviors of the East and West Antarctic ice sheets, as well as the possible role of increased surface mass balance in offsetting the dynamic ice loss in response to changing oceanic conditions in ice shelf cavities. However, the detailed contribution of individual glaciers, as well as the partitioning of uncertainty associated with this ensemble, have not yet been investigated. Here, we analyze the ISMIP6 results for high carbon emission scenarios, focusing on key glaciers around the Antarctic Ice Sheet, and we quantify their projected dynamic mass loss, defined here as mass loss through increased ice discharge into the ocean in response to changing oceanic conditions. We highlight glaciers contributing the most to sea level rise, as well as their vulnerability to changes in oceanic conditions. We then investigate the different sources of uncertainty and their relative role in projections, for the entire continent and for key individual glaciers. We show that, in addition to Thwaites and Pine Island glaciers in West Antarctica, Totten and Moscow University glaciers in East Antarctica present comparable future dynamic mass loss and high sensitivity to ice shelf basal melt. The overall uncertainty in additional dynamic mass loss in response to changing oceanic conditions, compared to a scenario with constant oceanic conditions, is dominated by the choice of ice sheet model, accounting for 52 % of the total uncertainty of the Antarctic dynamic mass loss in 2100. Its relative role for the most dynamic glaciers varies between 14 % for MacAyeal and Whillans ice streams and 56 % for Pine Island Glacier at the end of the century. The uncertainty associated with the choice of climate ... |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
H. Seroussi V. Verjans S. Nowicki A. J. Payne H. Goelzer W. H. Lipscomb A. Abe-Ouchi C. Agosta T. Albrecht X. Asay-Davis A. Barthel R. Calov R. Cullather C. Dumas B. K. Galton-Fenzi R. Gladstone N. R. Golledge J. M. Gregory R. Greve T. Hattermann M. J. Hoffman A. Humbert P. Huybrechts N. C. Jourdain T. Kleiner E. Larour G. R. Leguy D. P. Lowry C. M. Little M. Morlighem F. Pattyn T. Pelle S. F. Price A. Quiquet R. Reese N.-J. Schlegel A. Shepherd E. Simon R. S. Smith F. Straneo S. Sun L. D. Trusel J. Van Breedam P. Van Katwyk R. S. W. van de Wal R. Winkelmann C. Zhao T. Zhang T. Zwinger |
author_facet |
H. Seroussi V. Verjans S. Nowicki A. J. Payne H. Goelzer W. H. Lipscomb A. Abe-Ouchi C. Agosta T. Albrecht X. Asay-Davis A. Barthel R. Calov R. Cullather C. Dumas B. K. Galton-Fenzi R. Gladstone N. R. Golledge J. M. Gregory R. Greve T. Hattermann M. J. Hoffman A. Humbert P. Huybrechts N. C. Jourdain T. Kleiner E. Larour G. R. Leguy D. P. Lowry C. M. Little M. Morlighem F. Pattyn T. Pelle S. F. Price A. Quiquet R. Reese N.-J. Schlegel A. Shepherd E. Simon R. S. Smith F. Straneo S. Sun L. D. Trusel J. Van Breedam P. Van Katwyk R. S. W. van de Wal R. Winkelmann C. Zhao T. Zhang T. Zwinger |
author_sort |
H. Seroussi |
title |
Insights into the vulnerability of Antarctic glaciers from the ISMIP6 ice sheet model ensemble and associated uncertainty |
title_short |
Insights into the vulnerability of Antarctic glaciers from the ISMIP6 ice sheet model ensemble and associated uncertainty |
title_full |
Insights into the vulnerability of Antarctic glaciers from the ISMIP6 ice sheet model ensemble and associated uncertainty |
title_fullStr |
Insights into the vulnerability of Antarctic glaciers from the ISMIP6 ice sheet model ensemble and associated uncertainty |
title_full_unstemmed |
Insights into the vulnerability of Antarctic glaciers from the ISMIP6 ice sheet model ensemble and associated uncertainty |
title_sort |
insights into the vulnerability of antarctic glaciers from the ismip6 ice sheet model ensemble and associated uncertainty |
publisher |
Copernicus Publications |
publishDate |
2023 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-5197-2023 https://doaj.org/article/602d0106f5dc44e2a4a46926008676ae |
long_lat |
ENVELOPE(-101.000,-101.000,-75.000,-75.000) ENVELOPE(-64.250,-64.250,-84.450,-84.450) |
geographic |
Antarctic East Antarctica Pine Island Glacier The Antarctic West Antarctica Whillans |
geographic_facet |
Antarctic East Antarctica Pine Island Glacier The Antarctic West Antarctica Whillans |
genre |
Antarc* Antarctic Antarctica East Antarctica Ice Sheet Ice Shelf Pine Island Pine Island Glacier The Cryosphere West Antarctica |
genre_facet |
Antarc* Antarctic Antarctica East Antarctica Ice Sheet Ice Shelf Pine Island Pine Island Glacier The Cryosphere West Antarctica |
op_source |
The Cryosphere, Vol 17, Pp 5197-5217 (2023) |
op_relation |
https://tc.copernicus.org/articles/17/5197/2023/tc-17-5197-2023.pdf https://doaj.org/toc/1994-0416 https://doaj.org/toc/1994-0424 doi:10.5194/tc-17-5197-2023 1994-0416 1994-0424 https://doaj.org/article/602d0106f5dc44e2a4a46926008676ae |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-5197-2023 |
container_title |
The Cryosphere |
container_volume |
17 |
container_issue |
12 |
container_start_page |
5197 |
op_container_end_page |
5217 |
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1787425538778857472 |