Spatial diffusion of Zika fever epidemics in the Municipality of Salvador-Bahia, Brazil, in 2015-2016: does Zika fever have the same spread pattern as Dengue and Chikungunya fever epidemics?
Abstract INTRODUCTION The recent emergence and rapid spread of Zika and Chikungunya fevers in Brazil, occurring simultaneously to a Dengue fever epidemic, together represent major challenges to public health authorities. This study aimed to identify and compare the 2015-2016 spatial diffusion patter...
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:601c124d35ea47d89d24fc4305690fa2 2023-05-15T15:12:59+02:00 Spatial diffusion of Zika fever epidemics in the Municipality of Salvador-Bahia, Brazil, in 2015-2016: does Zika fever have the same spread pattern as Dengue and Chikungunya fever epidemics? Laís Santos Santana Jose Ueleres Braga 2020-04-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.1590/0037-8682-0563-2019 https://doaj.org/article/601c124d35ea47d89d24fc4305690fa2 EN eng Sociedade Brasileira de Medicina Tropical (SBMT) http://www.scielo.br/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S0037-86822020000100315&tlng=en https://doaj.org/toc/1678-9849 1678-9849 doi:10.1590/0037-8682-0563-2019 https://doaj.org/article/601c124d35ea47d89d24fc4305690fa2 Revista da Sociedade Brasileira de Medicina Tropical, Vol 53 (2020) Zika Chikungunya Dengue Arboviruses Spatial diffusion Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine RC955-962 article 2020 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.1590/0037-8682-0563-2019 2022-12-30T23:24:25Z Abstract INTRODUCTION The recent emergence and rapid spread of Zika and Chikungunya fevers in Brazil, occurring simultaneously to a Dengue fever epidemic, together represent major challenges to public health authorities. This study aimed to identify and compare the 2015-2016 spatial diffusion pattern of Zika, Chikungunya, and Dengue epidemics in Salvador-Bahia. METHODS We used two study designs comprising a cross-sectional-to-point pattern and an ecological analysis of lattice data. Residential addresses involving notified cases were geocoded. We used four spatial diffusion analysis techniques: (i) visual inspection of the sequential kernel and choropleth map, (ii) spatial correlogram analysis, (iii) spatial local autocorrelation (LISA) changes analysis and, (iv) nearest neighbor index (NNI) modeling. RESULTS Kernel and choropleth maps indicated that arboviruses spread to neighboring areas near the first reported cases and occupied these new areas, suggesting a diffusion expansion pattern. A greater case density occurred in central and western areas. In 2015 and 2016, the NNI best-fit model had an S-curve compatible with an expansion pattern for Zika (R2 = 0.94; 0.95), Chikungunya (R2 = 0.99; 0.98) and Dengue (R2 = 0.93; 0.99) epidemics, respectively. Spatial correlograms indicated a decline in spatial lag autocorrelations for the three diseases (expansion pattern). Significant LISA changes suggested different diffusion patterns, although a small number of changes were detected. CONCLUSIONS These findings indicate diffusion expansion, a unique spatial diffusion pattern of Zika, Chikungunya, and Dengue epidemics in Salvador-Bahia, namely. Knowing how and where arboviruses spread in Salvador-Bahia can help improve subsequent specific epidemic control interventions. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Arctic Revista da Sociedade Brasileira de Medicina Tropical 53 |
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Open Polar |
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Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
op_collection_id |
ftdoajarticles |
language |
English |
topic |
Zika Chikungunya Dengue Arboviruses Spatial diffusion Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine RC955-962 |
spellingShingle |
Zika Chikungunya Dengue Arboviruses Spatial diffusion Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine RC955-962 Laís Santos Santana Jose Ueleres Braga Spatial diffusion of Zika fever epidemics in the Municipality of Salvador-Bahia, Brazil, in 2015-2016: does Zika fever have the same spread pattern as Dengue and Chikungunya fever epidemics? |
topic_facet |
Zika Chikungunya Dengue Arboviruses Spatial diffusion Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine RC955-962 |
description |
Abstract INTRODUCTION The recent emergence and rapid spread of Zika and Chikungunya fevers in Brazil, occurring simultaneously to a Dengue fever epidemic, together represent major challenges to public health authorities. This study aimed to identify and compare the 2015-2016 spatial diffusion pattern of Zika, Chikungunya, and Dengue epidemics in Salvador-Bahia. METHODS We used two study designs comprising a cross-sectional-to-point pattern and an ecological analysis of lattice data. Residential addresses involving notified cases were geocoded. We used four spatial diffusion analysis techniques: (i) visual inspection of the sequential kernel and choropleth map, (ii) spatial correlogram analysis, (iii) spatial local autocorrelation (LISA) changes analysis and, (iv) nearest neighbor index (NNI) modeling. RESULTS Kernel and choropleth maps indicated that arboviruses spread to neighboring areas near the first reported cases and occupied these new areas, suggesting a diffusion expansion pattern. A greater case density occurred in central and western areas. In 2015 and 2016, the NNI best-fit model had an S-curve compatible with an expansion pattern for Zika (R2 = 0.94; 0.95), Chikungunya (R2 = 0.99; 0.98) and Dengue (R2 = 0.93; 0.99) epidemics, respectively. Spatial correlograms indicated a decline in spatial lag autocorrelations for the three diseases (expansion pattern). Significant LISA changes suggested different diffusion patterns, although a small number of changes were detected. CONCLUSIONS These findings indicate diffusion expansion, a unique spatial diffusion pattern of Zika, Chikungunya, and Dengue epidemics in Salvador-Bahia, namely. Knowing how and where arboviruses spread in Salvador-Bahia can help improve subsequent specific epidemic control interventions. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Laís Santos Santana Jose Ueleres Braga |
author_facet |
Laís Santos Santana Jose Ueleres Braga |
author_sort |
Laís Santos Santana |
title |
Spatial diffusion of Zika fever epidemics in the Municipality of Salvador-Bahia, Brazil, in 2015-2016: does Zika fever have the same spread pattern as Dengue and Chikungunya fever epidemics? |
title_short |
Spatial diffusion of Zika fever epidemics in the Municipality of Salvador-Bahia, Brazil, in 2015-2016: does Zika fever have the same spread pattern as Dengue and Chikungunya fever epidemics? |
title_full |
Spatial diffusion of Zika fever epidemics in the Municipality of Salvador-Bahia, Brazil, in 2015-2016: does Zika fever have the same spread pattern as Dengue and Chikungunya fever epidemics? |
title_fullStr |
Spatial diffusion of Zika fever epidemics in the Municipality of Salvador-Bahia, Brazil, in 2015-2016: does Zika fever have the same spread pattern as Dengue and Chikungunya fever epidemics? |
title_full_unstemmed |
Spatial diffusion of Zika fever epidemics in the Municipality of Salvador-Bahia, Brazil, in 2015-2016: does Zika fever have the same spread pattern as Dengue and Chikungunya fever epidemics? |
title_sort |
spatial diffusion of zika fever epidemics in the municipality of salvador-bahia, brazil, in 2015-2016: does zika fever have the same spread pattern as dengue and chikungunya fever epidemics? |
publisher |
Sociedade Brasileira de Medicina Tropical (SBMT) |
publishDate |
2020 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.1590/0037-8682-0563-2019 https://doaj.org/article/601c124d35ea47d89d24fc4305690fa2 |
geographic |
Arctic |
geographic_facet |
Arctic |
genre |
Arctic |
genre_facet |
Arctic |
op_source |
Revista da Sociedade Brasileira de Medicina Tropical, Vol 53 (2020) |
op_relation |
http://www.scielo.br/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S0037-86822020000100315&tlng=en https://doaj.org/toc/1678-9849 1678-9849 doi:10.1590/0037-8682-0563-2019 https://doaj.org/article/601c124d35ea47d89d24fc4305690fa2 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1590/0037-8682-0563-2019 |
container_title |
Revista da Sociedade Brasileira de Medicina Tropical |
container_volume |
53 |
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