Critical Review on Radiative Forcing and Climate Models for Global Climate Change since 1970

• Published in: Atmosphere
• Main Author: Qing-Bin Lu
• Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
• Language: English
• Published: MDPI AG 2023
• Subjects: physics of climate models; radiative forcing; chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs); carbon dioxide (CO 2 ); global warming; global cooling; Meteorology. Climatology; QC851-999; Antarctic; Arctic; The Antarctic; Antarc*; Climate change; Global warming
• Online Access: https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos14081232; https://doaj.org/article/6017a27f408d4a82ad3cdda7643e7f0f

This review identifies a critical problem in the fundamental physics of current climate models. The large greenhouse effect of rising CO 2 assumed in climate models is assessed by six key observations from ground- and satellite-based measurements. This assessment is enhanced by statistical analyses and model calculations of global or regional mean surface temperature changes by conventional climate models and by a conceptual quantum physical model of global warming due to halogen-containing greenhouse gases (halo-GHGs). The postulated large radiative forcing of CO 2 in conventional climate models does not agree with satellite observations. Satellite-observed warming pattern resembles closely the atmospheric distribution of chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs). This review helps understand recent remarkable observations of reversals from cooling to warming in the lower stratosphere over most continents and in the upper stratosphere at high latitudes, surface warming cessations in the Antarctic, North America, UK, and Northern-Hemisphere (NH) extratropics, and the stabilization in NH or North America snow cover, since the turn of the century. The complementary observation of surface temperature changes in 3 representative regions (Central England, the Antarctic, and the Arctic) sheds new light on the primary mechanism of global warming. These observations agree well with not CO 2 -based climate models but the CFC-warming quantum physical model. The latter offers parameter-free analytical calculations of surface temperature changes, exhibiting remarkable agreement with observations. These observations overwhelmingly support an emerging picture that halo-GHGs made the dominant contribution to global warming in the late 20th century and that a gradual reversal in warming has occurred since ~2005 due to the phasing out of halo-GHGs. Advances and insights from this review may help humans make rational policies to reverse the past warming and maintain a healthy economy and ecosystem.