Spatiotemporal patterns of rain-on-snow and basal ice in high Arctic Svalbard: detection of a climate-cryosphere regime shift
Arctic winters have become increasingly warmer and rainier. Where permafrost prevails, winter rain (or rain-on-snow) is known to occasionally cause extensive ice layers at the snow/ground interface, i.e. ‘basal ice’ or ‘ground ice’, with potentially large ecological and socio-economic implications....
Published in: | Environmental Research Letters |
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Language: | English |
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2019
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Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aaefb3 https://doaj.org/article/5fc0b72f7e474fdba87969fd8b1a8b91 |
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:5fc0b72f7e474fdba87969fd8b1a8b91 2023-09-05T13:17:02+02:00 Spatiotemporal patterns of rain-on-snow and basal ice in high Arctic Svalbard: detection of a climate-cryosphere regime shift Bart Peeters Åshild Ønvik Pedersen Leif Egil Loe Ketil Isaksen Vebjørn Veiberg Audun Stien Jack Kohler Jean-Charles Gallet Ronny Aanes Brage Bremset Hansen 2019-01-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aaefb3 https://doaj.org/article/5fc0b72f7e474fdba87969fd8b1a8b91 EN eng IOP Publishing https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aaefb3 https://doaj.org/toc/1748-9326 doi:10.1088/1748-9326/aaefb3 1748-9326 https://doaj.org/article/5fc0b72f7e474fdba87969fd8b1a8b91 Environmental Research Letters, Vol 14, Iss 1, p 015002 (2019) climate change ground ice rain-on-snow snowpack synchrony topography Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering TD1-1066 Environmental sciences GE1-350 Science Q Physics QC1-999 article 2019 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aaefb3 2023-08-13T00:37:31Z Arctic winters have become increasingly warmer and rainier. Where permafrost prevails, winter rain (or rain-on-snow) is known to occasionally cause extensive ice layers at the snow/ground interface, i.e. ‘basal ice’ or ‘ground ice’, with potentially large ecological and socio-economic implications. However, an overall lack of field data has so far restricted our predictive understanding of the environmental conditions shaping spatiotemporal variation in basal ice. Here, we use time-series of spatially replicated snowpack measurements from coastal (Ny-Ålesund area; 2000–2017) and central Spitsbergen (Nordenskiöld Land; 2010–2017), Svalbard, to analyze spatiotemporal patterns in basal ice and how they are linked with topography, weather, snowpack and climate change. As expected, both the spatial occurrence and thickness of basal ice increased strongly with the annual amount of winter rain. This effect was modified by accumulated snowfall; a deeper snowpack restricts ice formation following a minor rain event, but enhances ice formation following heavy rain due to an increased contribution of snowmelt. Accordingly, inter-annual variation in snow depth was negatively related to basal ice thickness. Annual fluctuations in basal ice thickness were strongly correlated in space (average correlation ρ = 0.40; 0–142 km distance between plots) due to strong spatial correlation in winter rain ( ρ = 0.62; 14–410 km distance between meteorological stations). Models of basal ice based on meteorological time-series (1957–2017) suggested that ice-free winters (i.e. mean basal ice <0.1 cm) had virtually not occurred since 1998, whereas such winters previously (1957–1998) occurred every three–four years on average. This detected cryosphere regime shift was linked to a parallel climate regime shift with increased winter rain amounts. Svalbard is regarded a bellwether for Arctic winter climate change. Our empirical study may therefore provide an early warning of future changes in high-arctic snowpacks. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Climate change Ice Nordenskiöld Land Ny Ålesund Ny-Ålesund permafrost Svalbard Spitsbergen Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Arctic Nordenskiöld Land ENVELOPE(15.000,15.000,77.833,77.833) Ny-Ålesund Svalbard Environmental Research Letters 14 1 015002 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
op_collection_id |
ftdoajarticles |
language |
English |
topic |
climate change ground ice rain-on-snow snowpack synchrony topography Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering TD1-1066 Environmental sciences GE1-350 Science Q Physics QC1-999 |
spellingShingle |
climate change ground ice rain-on-snow snowpack synchrony topography Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering TD1-1066 Environmental sciences GE1-350 Science Q Physics QC1-999 Bart Peeters Åshild Ønvik Pedersen Leif Egil Loe Ketil Isaksen Vebjørn Veiberg Audun Stien Jack Kohler Jean-Charles Gallet Ronny Aanes Brage Bremset Hansen Spatiotemporal patterns of rain-on-snow and basal ice in high Arctic Svalbard: detection of a climate-cryosphere regime shift |
topic_facet |
climate change ground ice rain-on-snow snowpack synchrony topography Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering TD1-1066 Environmental sciences GE1-350 Science Q Physics QC1-999 |
description |
Arctic winters have become increasingly warmer and rainier. Where permafrost prevails, winter rain (or rain-on-snow) is known to occasionally cause extensive ice layers at the snow/ground interface, i.e. ‘basal ice’ or ‘ground ice’, with potentially large ecological and socio-economic implications. However, an overall lack of field data has so far restricted our predictive understanding of the environmental conditions shaping spatiotemporal variation in basal ice. Here, we use time-series of spatially replicated snowpack measurements from coastal (Ny-Ålesund area; 2000–2017) and central Spitsbergen (Nordenskiöld Land; 2010–2017), Svalbard, to analyze spatiotemporal patterns in basal ice and how they are linked with topography, weather, snowpack and climate change. As expected, both the spatial occurrence and thickness of basal ice increased strongly with the annual amount of winter rain. This effect was modified by accumulated snowfall; a deeper snowpack restricts ice formation following a minor rain event, but enhances ice formation following heavy rain due to an increased contribution of snowmelt. Accordingly, inter-annual variation in snow depth was negatively related to basal ice thickness. Annual fluctuations in basal ice thickness were strongly correlated in space (average correlation ρ = 0.40; 0–142 km distance between plots) due to strong spatial correlation in winter rain ( ρ = 0.62; 14–410 km distance between meteorological stations). Models of basal ice based on meteorological time-series (1957–2017) suggested that ice-free winters (i.e. mean basal ice <0.1 cm) had virtually not occurred since 1998, whereas such winters previously (1957–1998) occurred every three–four years on average. This detected cryosphere regime shift was linked to a parallel climate regime shift with increased winter rain amounts. Svalbard is regarded a bellwether for Arctic winter climate change. Our empirical study may therefore provide an early warning of future changes in high-arctic snowpacks. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Bart Peeters Åshild Ønvik Pedersen Leif Egil Loe Ketil Isaksen Vebjørn Veiberg Audun Stien Jack Kohler Jean-Charles Gallet Ronny Aanes Brage Bremset Hansen |
author_facet |
Bart Peeters Åshild Ønvik Pedersen Leif Egil Loe Ketil Isaksen Vebjørn Veiberg Audun Stien Jack Kohler Jean-Charles Gallet Ronny Aanes Brage Bremset Hansen |
author_sort |
Bart Peeters |
title |
Spatiotemporal patterns of rain-on-snow and basal ice in high Arctic Svalbard: detection of a climate-cryosphere regime shift |
title_short |
Spatiotemporal patterns of rain-on-snow and basal ice in high Arctic Svalbard: detection of a climate-cryosphere regime shift |
title_full |
Spatiotemporal patterns of rain-on-snow and basal ice in high Arctic Svalbard: detection of a climate-cryosphere regime shift |
title_fullStr |
Spatiotemporal patterns of rain-on-snow and basal ice in high Arctic Svalbard: detection of a climate-cryosphere regime shift |
title_full_unstemmed |
Spatiotemporal patterns of rain-on-snow and basal ice in high Arctic Svalbard: detection of a climate-cryosphere regime shift |
title_sort |
spatiotemporal patterns of rain-on-snow and basal ice in high arctic svalbard: detection of a climate-cryosphere regime shift |
publisher |
IOP Publishing |
publishDate |
2019 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aaefb3 https://doaj.org/article/5fc0b72f7e474fdba87969fd8b1a8b91 |
long_lat |
ENVELOPE(15.000,15.000,77.833,77.833) |
geographic |
Arctic Nordenskiöld Land Ny-Ålesund Svalbard |
geographic_facet |
Arctic Nordenskiöld Land Ny-Ålesund Svalbard |
genre |
Arctic Climate change Ice Nordenskiöld Land Ny Ålesund Ny-Ålesund permafrost Svalbard Spitsbergen |
genre_facet |
Arctic Climate change Ice Nordenskiöld Land Ny Ålesund Ny-Ålesund permafrost Svalbard Spitsbergen |
op_source |
Environmental Research Letters, Vol 14, Iss 1, p 015002 (2019) |
op_relation |
https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aaefb3 https://doaj.org/toc/1748-9326 doi:10.1088/1748-9326/aaefb3 1748-9326 https://doaj.org/article/5fc0b72f7e474fdba87969fd8b1a8b91 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aaefb3 |
container_title |
Environmental Research Letters |
container_volume |
14 |
container_issue |
1 |
container_start_page |
015002 |
_version_ |
1776198377908731904 |