Projected 21st century decrease in marine productivity: a multi-model analysis
Changes in marine net primary productivity (PP) and export of particulate organic carbon (EP) are projected over the 21st century with four global coupled carbon cycle-climate models. These include representations of marine ecosystems and the carbon cycle of different structure and complexity. All f...
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:5f0904452dd646dfafc8beaf6ff769d7 2023-05-15T15:11:16+02:00 Projected 21st century decrease in marine productivity: a multi-model analysis M. Steinacher F. Joos T. L. Frölicher L. Bopp P. Cadule V. Cocco S. C. Doney M. Gehlen K. Lindsay J. K. Moore B. Schneider J. Segschneider 2010-03-01T00:00:00Z https://doaj.org/article/5f0904452dd646dfafc8beaf6ff769d7 EN eng Copernicus Publications http://www.biogeosciences.net/7/979/2010/bg-7-979-2010.pdf https://doaj.org/toc/1726-4170 https://doaj.org/toc/1726-4189 1726-4170 1726-4189 https://doaj.org/article/5f0904452dd646dfafc8beaf6ff769d7 Biogeosciences, Vol 7, Iss 3, Pp 979-1005 (2010) Ecology QH540-549.5 Life QH501-531 Geology QE1-996.5 article 2010 ftdoajarticles 2022-12-30T22:46:54Z Changes in marine net primary productivity (PP) and export of particulate organic carbon (EP) are projected over the 21st century with four global coupled carbon cycle-climate models. These include representations of marine ecosystems and the carbon cycle of different structure and complexity. All four models show a decrease in global mean PP and EP between 2 and 20% by 2100 relative to preindustrial conditions, for the SRES A2 emission scenario. Two different regimes for productivity changes are consistently identified in all models. The first chain of mechanisms is dominant in the low- and mid-latitude ocean and in the North Atlantic: reduced input of macro-nutrients into the euphotic zone related to enhanced stratification, reduced mixed layer depth, and slowed circulation causes a decrease in macro-nutrient concentrations and in PP and EP. The second regime is projected for parts of the Southern Ocean: an alleviation of light and/or temperature limitation leads to an increase in PP and EP as productivity is fueled by a sustained nutrient input. A region of disagreement among the models is the Arctic, where three models project an increase in PP while one model projects a decrease. Projected changes in seasonal and interannual variability are modest in most regions. Regional model skill metrics are proposed to generate multi-model mean fields that show an improved skill in representing observation-based estimates compared to a simple multi-model average. Model results are compared to recent productivity projections with three different algorithms, usually applied to infer net primary production from satellite observations. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic North Atlantic Southern Ocean Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Arctic Southern Ocean |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
op_collection_id |
ftdoajarticles |
language |
English |
topic |
Ecology QH540-549.5 Life QH501-531 Geology QE1-996.5 |
spellingShingle |
Ecology QH540-549.5 Life QH501-531 Geology QE1-996.5 M. Steinacher F. Joos T. L. Frölicher L. Bopp P. Cadule V. Cocco S. C. Doney M. Gehlen K. Lindsay J. K. Moore B. Schneider J. Segschneider Projected 21st century decrease in marine productivity: a multi-model analysis |
topic_facet |
Ecology QH540-549.5 Life QH501-531 Geology QE1-996.5 |
description |
Changes in marine net primary productivity (PP) and export of particulate organic carbon (EP) are projected over the 21st century with four global coupled carbon cycle-climate models. These include representations of marine ecosystems and the carbon cycle of different structure and complexity. All four models show a decrease in global mean PP and EP between 2 and 20% by 2100 relative to preindustrial conditions, for the SRES A2 emission scenario. Two different regimes for productivity changes are consistently identified in all models. The first chain of mechanisms is dominant in the low- and mid-latitude ocean and in the North Atlantic: reduced input of macro-nutrients into the euphotic zone related to enhanced stratification, reduced mixed layer depth, and slowed circulation causes a decrease in macro-nutrient concentrations and in PP and EP. The second regime is projected for parts of the Southern Ocean: an alleviation of light and/or temperature limitation leads to an increase in PP and EP as productivity is fueled by a sustained nutrient input. A region of disagreement among the models is the Arctic, where three models project an increase in PP while one model projects a decrease. Projected changes in seasonal and interannual variability are modest in most regions. Regional model skill metrics are proposed to generate multi-model mean fields that show an improved skill in representing observation-based estimates compared to a simple multi-model average. Model results are compared to recent productivity projections with three different algorithms, usually applied to infer net primary production from satellite observations. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
M. Steinacher F. Joos T. L. Frölicher L. Bopp P. Cadule V. Cocco S. C. Doney M. Gehlen K. Lindsay J. K. Moore B. Schneider J. Segschneider |
author_facet |
M. Steinacher F. Joos T. L. Frölicher L. Bopp P. Cadule V. Cocco S. C. Doney M. Gehlen K. Lindsay J. K. Moore B. Schneider J. Segschneider |
author_sort |
M. Steinacher |
title |
Projected 21st century decrease in marine productivity: a multi-model analysis |
title_short |
Projected 21st century decrease in marine productivity: a multi-model analysis |
title_full |
Projected 21st century decrease in marine productivity: a multi-model analysis |
title_fullStr |
Projected 21st century decrease in marine productivity: a multi-model analysis |
title_full_unstemmed |
Projected 21st century decrease in marine productivity: a multi-model analysis |
title_sort |
projected 21st century decrease in marine productivity: a multi-model analysis |
publisher |
Copernicus Publications |
publishDate |
2010 |
url |
https://doaj.org/article/5f0904452dd646dfafc8beaf6ff769d7 |
geographic |
Arctic Southern Ocean |
geographic_facet |
Arctic Southern Ocean |
genre |
Arctic North Atlantic Southern Ocean |
genre_facet |
Arctic North Atlantic Southern Ocean |
op_source |
Biogeosciences, Vol 7, Iss 3, Pp 979-1005 (2010) |
op_relation |
http://www.biogeosciences.net/7/979/2010/bg-7-979-2010.pdf https://doaj.org/toc/1726-4170 https://doaj.org/toc/1726-4189 1726-4170 1726-4189 https://doaj.org/article/5f0904452dd646dfafc8beaf6ff769d7 |
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1766342152161329152 |