Steady but model dependent Arctic amplification of the forced temperature response in 21st century CMIP6 projections
We examine sources of uncertainty in projections of Arctic amplification (AA) using the CMIP6 multi-model (MM) ensemble and single model initial-condition large ensembles of historical and future scenario simulations. In the CMIP6 MM mean, the annual mean AA ratio is steady at approximately 2.5, bot...
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:5e42abb3f61c4e639f74db57d2f4e349 2024-09-09T19:21:07+00:00 Steady but model dependent Arctic amplification of the forced temperature response in 21st century CMIP6 projections Stephanie Hay James A Screen Jennifer L Catto 2024-01-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.1088/2752-5295/ad4201 https://doaj.org/article/5e42abb3f61c4e639f74db57d2f4e349 EN eng IOP Publishing https://doi.org/10.1088/2752-5295/ad4201 https://doaj.org/toc/2752-5295 doi:10.1088/2752-5295/ad4201 2752-5295 https://doaj.org/article/5e42abb3f61c4e639f74db57d2f4e349 Environmental Research: Climate, Vol 3, Iss 3, p 031003 (2024) Arctic amplification structural uncertainty scenario uncertainy internal variability Meteorology. Climatology QC851-999 Environmental sciences GE1-350 article 2024 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.1088/2752-5295/ad4201 2024-08-05T17:49:23Z We examine sources of uncertainty in projections of Arctic amplification (AA) using the CMIP6 multi-model (MM) ensemble and single model initial-condition large ensembles of historical and future scenario simulations. In the CMIP6 MM mean, the annual mean AA ratio is steady at approximately 2.5, both in time and across scenarios, resulting in negligibly small scenario uncertainty in the magnitude of AA. Deviations from the steady value can be found at the low and high emission scenarios due to different root causes, with the latter being mostly evident in the summer and autumn seasons. Best estimates of model uncertainty are at least an order of magnitude larger than scenario uncertainty in CMIP6. The large ensembles reveal that irreducible internal variability has a similar magnitude to model uncertainty for most of the 21st century, except in the lowest emission scenario at the end of the 21st century when it could be twice as large. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Arctic Environmental Research: Climate 3 3 031003 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
op_collection_id |
ftdoajarticles |
language |
English |
topic |
Arctic amplification structural uncertainty scenario uncertainy internal variability Meteorology. Climatology QC851-999 Environmental sciences GE1-350 |
spellingShingle |
Arctic amplification structural uncertainty scenario uncertainy internal variability Meteorology. Climatology QC851-999 Environmental sciences GE1-350 Stephanie Hay James A Screen Jennifer L Catto Steady but model dependent Arctic amplification of the forced temperature response in 21st century CMIP6 projections |
topic_facet |
Arctic amplification structural uncertainty scenario uncertainy internal variability Meteorology. Climatology QC851-999 Environmental sciences GE1-350 |
description |
We examine sources of uncertainty in projections of Arctic amplification (AA) using the CMIP6 multi-model (MM) ensemble and single model initial-condition large ensembles of historical and future scenario simulations. In the CMIP6 MM mean, the annual mean AA ratio is steady at approximately 2.5, both in time and across scenarios, resulting in negligibly small scenario uncertainty in the magnitude of AA. Deviations from the steady value can be found at the low and high emission scenarios due to different root causes, with the latter being mostly evident in the summer and autumn seasons. Best estimates of model uncertainty are at least an order of magnitude larger than scenario uncertainty in CMIP6. The large ensembles reveal that irreducible internal variability has a similar magnitude to model uncertainty for most of the 21st century, except in the lowest emission scenario at the end of the 21st century when it could be twice as large. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Stephanie Hay James A Screen Jennifer L Catto |
author_facet |
Stephanie Hay James A Screen Jennifer L Catto |
author_sort |
Stephanie Hay |
title |
Steady but model dependent Arctic amplification of the forced temperature response in 21st century CMIP6 projections |
title_short |
Steady but model dependent Arctic amplification of the forced temperature response in 21st century CMIP6 projections |
title_full |
Steady but model dependent Arctic amplification of the forced temperature response in 21st century CMIP6 projections |
title_fullStr |
Steady but model dependent Arctic amplification of the forced temperature response in 21st century CMIP6 projections |
title_full_unstemmed |
Steady but model dependent Arctic amplification of the forced temperature response in 21st century CMIP6 projections |
title_sort |
steady but model dependent arctic amplification of the forced temperature response in 21st century cmip6 projections |
publisher |
IOP Publishing |
publishDate |
2024 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.1088/2752-5295/ad4201 https://doaj.org/article/5e42abb3f61c4e639f74db57d2f4e349 |
geographic |
Arctic |
geographic_facet |
Arctic |
genre |
Arctic |
genre_facet |
Arctic |
op_source |
Environmental Research: Climate, Vol 3, Iss 3, p 031003 (2024) |
op_relation |
https://doi.org/10.1088/2752-5295/ad4201 https://doaj.org/toc/2752-5295 doi:10.1088/2752-5295/ad4201 2752-5295 https://doaj.org/article/5e42abb3f61c4e639f74db57d2f4e349 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1088/2752-5295/ad4201 |
container_title |
Environmental Research: Climate |
container_volume |
3 |
container_issue |
3 |
container_start_page |
031003 |
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1809761325553811456 |